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From the new edition of Time:
Sunday, Mar. 26, 2006 Republicans On The Run As midterm campaigns gear up, Bush's party fears a backlash that could end its 12-year hold on the House By KAREN TUMULTY, MIKE ALLEN [This article consists of a complex diagram. Please see hardcopy of magazine.] Considering that Vice President Dick Cheney had come a long way to help Florida Congressman Ric Keller raise $250,000 last week, the reception he got in the Sunshine State could have been a bit warmer. After extolling Cheney as "one of the most effective Vice Presidents in the history of the U.S.," Keller launched into all the times he had recently opposed the Bush Administration, including the deal to allow a Dubai company to manage operations at several U.S. ports. And then Keller went right for the punch line: "'Don't be too hasty,'" he claimed the Vice President had pleaded with him. "'Let's go hunting. We'll talk about it.'" As the campaign season kicks into gear, Republican incumbents are having a hard time figuring out how close they want to be to the White House. Voters have plenty to take out on Republican candidates this year--ethics scandals, the G.O.P.'S failure to curb spending, the government's inept response to Hurricane Katrina, a confusing new prescription-drug program for seniors and, more than anything else, an unpopular President who is fighting an unpopular war. Iraq could make a vulnerability of the Republicans' greatest asset, the security issue. The midterm contests in a President's second term are almost always treacherous, but this time around, Republicans thought it would be different. The 2006 elections, coming on top of their gains in 2002 and 2004, would make history and perhaps even cement a G.O.P. majority in Congress for a generation. George W. Bush's credibility on national security and the states' aggressive gerrymandering, they believed, had turned the vast majority of districts into fortresses for incumbents. But that's not turning out to be the case. In recent weeks, a startling realization has begun to take hold: if the elections were held today, top strategists of both parties say privately, the Republicans would probably lose the 15 seats they need to keep control of the House of Representatives and could come within a seat or two of losing the Senate as well. Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, who masterminded the 1994 elections that brought Republicans to power on promises of revolutionizing the way Washington is run, told TIME that his party has so bungled the job of governing that the best campaign slogan for Democrats today could be boiled down to just two words: "Had enough?" Iraq is driving nearly all the big indicators the wrong way for Republicans. In a TIME poll conducted last week, Bush's job approval rating was mired at 39%; 3 in 5 Americans said the country is headed in the wrong direction, and when those surveyed were given the choice between a generic Republican and a generic Democrat for Congress, the nameless Democrat won, 50% to 41%. The signs suggest an anti-Republican wave is building, says nonpartisan electoral handicapper Stuart Rothenberg, whose Rothenberg Political Report is closely followed in Washington. "The only question is how high, how big, how much force it will have. I think it will be considerable." The danger signs for Republicans show up across the electoral map but nowhere more clearly than in the swing state of Pennsylvania, where the hottest Senate race in the country is being fought and where Republican strategists say as many as five G.O.P. congressional seats are in play, out of a total 19. The President is still beloved by the state's Republican faithful, as evidenced by the fact that 500 of them showed up to see him at a $1,000-a-plate private fund raiser for Senator Rick Santorum last week in Sewickley Heights, a suburb of Pittsburgh. Santorum posed for photos with the President at the airport and leaned into a smiling handshake with political guru Karl Rove. But it was telling that Santorum, who is trailing state treasurer Bob Casey by 10 points in the latest polls, scheduled no public appearances with Bush. When Cheney flew to Newark, N.J., earlier in the week to raise nearly $400,000 that state senator Tom Kean Jr. badly needs in his bid for the U.S. Senate, the candidate didn't show up until 15 minutes after the Vice President's motorcade had left. Kean blamed the state's notorious traffic for his tardiness. Local papers confirmed that there hadn't been much congestion at the time. On the fund-raising front, Democrats have been surprisingly competitive with the Republicans. In a rare feat for the party, the Democratic senatorial campaign committee has outraised its Republican counterpart. Last year "our bottom-line goal was not to lose any seats," says Charles Schumer, the New York Senator who heads the committee. "Now, if things fall in line, we might even pick up the Senate." Republicans could even lose the Tennessee seat of retiring majority leader Bill Frist to Representative Harold Ford, a Democrat. Few strategists in either party think a Democratic takeover of the Senate is likely, but many agree that the party's playing offense rather than defense is a remarkable turnaround, given that Democrats have more incumbents (18) fighting to keep their seats than Republicans do (15). But the G.O.P. failed to recruit strong challengers for the North Dakota, Nebraska and Florida seats that had been considered their best opportunities. "There was a chance for us to get damn close to [a filibuster-proof] 60 votes," says G.O.P. activist Grover Norquist. "We gave away three sure things." If there's any good news for Republicans, it's that the elections are still seven months off. There is time in which any number of possible events--the capture of Osama bin Laden, for instance, or positive developments out of Iraq--could sweeten the nation's mood. Gingrich says Republicans badly need accomplishments to tell voters about. "The country actually expects the majority to implement," he says. "They hire you to govern, not just to tell them why you are right." Representative Tom Reynolds of New York, chairman of the G.O.P. House campaign committee, said the picture is more promising race by race than it is nationally. He told TIME only 36 to 40 races will be in play, meaning Democrats would have to keep all their competitive seats and knock off three-quarters of the Republicans. "We have more money, and their only message is slash and burn," Reynolds said. Republicans can take some comfort in the fact that one general rule about politics remains true, even in this difficult year: as mad as voters are at Washington in general, they are still pretty happy with the individual people who represent them. In the TIME poll, 63% of respondents said they approved of the job their local lawmaker was doing. That's one reason Republican strategists say they plan to battle the national tide by localizing individual races. Localizing suggests drawing voters' attention to the issues that most affect them at home. But in practice, to political operatives it means putting an opponent through the shredder. Republicans plan to go after Democratic challengers with every bit of ammunition they can find, from old tax liens to long-ago votes to raise local taxes. Democrats say, Bring it on. "If they want to have a negative campaign not about the issues, they will be met on the campaign field," says Illinois Representative Rahm Emanuel, the former Clinton White House aide who heads the Democrats' campaign committee for House races. Theirs has been a shifting line of attack. January's mantra about the G.O.P.'s "culture of corruption" became February's lament about the "rubber-stamp Congress." The latest slogan they are hurling against the Republicans is "dangerously incompetent." (That, however, can be a tricky visual, as Michigan Senator Debbie Stabenow discovered when she stood next to a placard with those two words and gave a speech two weeks ago on the Senate floor.) The most appealing argument the Democrats are offering may be their candidates, who were recruited more for how they fit the districts in which they are running than for how they match the party's national ideology. In Pennsylvania, which has an active bloc of Catholic voters, Casey is an opponent of abortion rights. That same position cost his father, then the Governor, a speaking spot at the 1992 Democratic Convention. For what could be two close races against female Republican incumbents--Heather Wilson in New Mexico and Deborah Pryce in Ohio--Emanuel found women challengers. Former NFL quarterback Heath Schuler has added star power to the race in a North Carolina district. Incumbent Charles Taylor is on the defense there with claims that an electronic glitch prevented him from casting his vote against the Central American Free Trade Agreement, which Bush had sought but is unpopular among Taylor's constituents, who believe it will cost the state jobs. The most obvious line of defense for Republican candidates is to point out their differences with the President, as the party-wide revolt over the ports deal amply demonstrated. In the face of the Democrats' "rubber stamp" charges, G.O.P. lawmakers are distancing themselves on other issues as well. In Kentucky, Representative Anne Northup, generally a staunch Bush backer, notes that she strongly supports reimporting cheaper drugs from Canada. In Missouri, Senator Jim Talent emphasizes his successful push for an amendment to last year's energy bill that requires 7.5 billion gallons of renewable energy to be in the nation's fuel pipeline by 2012. Boasts Talent adviser Lloyd Smith: "He took on the Bush Administration and the oil companies." But party leaders are warning privately against taking that strategy too far. "If Diet Coke criticizes Coke, people buy Pepsi, not Diet Coke," said Ken Mehlman, chairman of the Republican National Committee. In an internal Republican Party memo provided to TIME, Jan van Lohuizen, a longtime Bush pollster, warns candidates tempted to distance themselves that "President Bush drives our image and will do so until we have real national front-runners for the '08 nomination. If he drops, we all drop." Another Republican strategist describes the problem for G.O.P. candidates this way: "Adding weight to the anchor doesn't help them." Meanwhile, although there is no doubt that Americans are unhappy with the Republicans who run the country, Democratic strategists acknowledge that they have yet to sell voters on their party. In the TIME poll, approval for congressional Democrats is no higher (39%) than for Republicans, and 56% of voters said they don't believe the Democrats offer a clear set of alternative policies. Democratic activists and fund raisers are putting pressure on their leaders to come up with a program to tout as an option different from the Republican agenda, the way Gingrich and G.O.P. candidates did in 1994 with their 10-point Contract with America. Few voters were aware of the particulars of the Contract, but it helped give coherence and a positive tilt to the party message. Emanuel points out that the Republicans did not unveil their 1994 Contract until September of that year and says the Democrats are leery of doing anything right now that may draw attention away from the Republicans' problems. Still, he promises, "we will have, and properly so, in late spring and early summer a rollout [that tells voters], You give us the car, and we'll drive it." Indeed, the party's House leaders and committee chairs have begun making plans for their first moves if they take power, Democratic sources told TIME. Those sources said one of the first steps that a newly installed House Speaker Nancy Pelosi would take would be to introduce legislation making college tuition more affordable for middle-class families, perhaps through tax credits and lower interest rates on student loans. Democrats would move immediately to tighten port security, seeking to have 100% of incoming container cargo inspected. A Democratic official briefed on the plans said the party would quickly push a bill designed to inhibit future lobbying scandals. The sources said Democrats would push for changes to the troubled Medicare prescription-drug plan, giving more control to Medicare and less to private providers and striking the provision that prevents the government from negotiating prices with pharmaceutical companies. Administration officials say they fear that losing even one house of Congress would mean subpoenas and investigations--a taste of the medicine House Republicans gave Bill Clinton. "Everything will grind to a halt," one said. That prediction could be a scare tactic designed to get out the G.O.P. vote. But Democrats say that if they are victorious in November, they plan to force Bush to be more accountable, and they intend to dig through records of contracts in Iraq, for homeland security and for the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. Democratic Representative Henry Waxman of California, one of the most dogged critics of the Administration, would be in line to chair the House Government Reform Committee and could write witness lists instead of open letters to the West Wing. "Some of these ranking members have had 10 years to think about what they would do," a Democratic official said. If Republicans can't change the course of things soon, the Democrats may have their chance. [The Following Descriptive Text Appears Within A Diagram] TIME Poll WILL BUSH BRING DOWN THE HOUSE? THE PRESIDENT Bush's struggles continue. His approval rating is below 40% and nearly half the country questions his competence In general, do you approve of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President? Approve: 39% Disapprove: 56% Would you describe President Bush as ... ... Competent? Total: 52% G.O.P.: 90% Dem.: 25% Ind.: 46% ... Incompetent? Total: 47% G.O.P.: 9% Dem.: 73% Ind.: 53% CONGRESS Voters lean toward putting the Democrats back in control even though the party is seen as lacking a clear agenda. Voters prefer the Democrats on many domestic matters, but Republicans hold a notable edge on handling terrorism If the congressional elections were being held today, would you be more likely to vote for the Republican or Democratic candidate?* Democratic 50% Republican 41% Regardless of which candidates you favor, would you rather see the Republicans or the Democrats control Congress? Democratic 49% Republican 38% Do you think the Democrats have a clear set of policies for the country? Yes 36% No 56% Do you think the Republicans have a clear set of policies for the country? Yes 43% No 50% *Asked of registered voters. Includes respondents who "lean" toward a particular party Which party would do a better job of ... Democrats / Republicans ... rebuilding New Orleans and the Gulf Coast? Democrats ...48% Republicans ...21% ... standing up to special interests? Democrats ...40% Republicans ...22% ... managing government spending? Democrats ...46% Republicans ...31% ... dealing with corruption in government? Democrats ...39% Republicans ...25% ... protecting the rights of Americans? Democrats ...48% Republicans ...35% ... managing tax policies? Democrats ...45% Republicans ...38% ... dealing with the war in Iraq? Democrats ...40% Republicans ...41% ... dealing with terrorism? Democrats ...33% Republicans ...44% This TIME poll was conducted by telephone March 22-23 among 1,003 adult Americans by SRBI Public Affairs. The margin of error is +/-3 percentage points. "Don't know" responses omitted for some questions. With reporting by With reporting by Perry Bacon Jr./ Stamford, Conn.; Massimo Calabresi/ Reading, Pa.; Paul Cuadros/ Chapel Hill, N.C.; Michael Duffy/Washington; Eric Ferkenhoff/ Chicago, Michael Lindenberger/ Louisville, Ky.; Barbara Liston/ Orlando, Fla.; Christopher Maag/ Cleveland, Ohio; Siobhan Morrissey/ Miami;, Constance E. Richards/ Asheville N.C. http://www.time.com/time/magazine/pr...176997,00.html |
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The April 11th special election to replace disgraced Rep. Duke Cunningham should give us an indication of how deep in doo-doo the GOP really is. It's a heavily Republican district, so if the Democrat does well, then it should give the Dems a boost in confidence. If the Dems can't make a huge gain in seats this year, then they are hopeless.
http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cg...NG9DHUKF41.DTL Escondido, San Diego County -- The potluck dinner has been laid out, the balloons are up, signs are out, and the living room is packed with eager faces. That's when Democrat Francine Busby, 55 -- a second-generation Italian American who grew up working in her family sausage business -- rises and begins her pitch to voters in the conservative bastion of the 50th Congressional District. Busby rivets attention with her call for a Clean House Act -- an ethics policy that would bar elected officials from accepting any gifts, travel, outside work or private meetings with lobbyists, no exceptions. "The culture of corruption is a label ... but I've not heard Democrats go beyond that,'' said Busby, a former Sunday school teacher and soccer mom. "Republicans are fed up, too. ... Send a message for change across the country ... (because) you are at the epicenter of congressional politics.'' The enthusiastic burst of applause that followed is not a sound heard often by Democratic candidates in a region considered the home of the ultra-conservative right in California -- and the setting for one of the nation's first congressional races of 2006. The unusual special election on April 11 in the 50th District, stretching across northern San Diego County from Busby's base of coastal Cardiff-by-the-Sea to inland Escondido, was set in motion by the spectacular downfall of GOP Rep. Randy "Duke" Cunningham -- the former "Top Gun" pilot who self-destructed in disgrace, convicted in a bribery and corruption scandal. The results of the contest may be a harbinger of the midterm congressional elections this November: Busby is pounding ethics to her audiences and the Republican candidates are tussling over who's tougher on immigration. Democrats "want to create a groundswell with this special election like (Republicans) did in 1994,'' when Republican Rep. Newt Gingrich of Georgia and the party's Contract with America paved the way for the GOP takeover of Congress, said former Republican Rep. Brian Bilbray, who is running for the seat. His prediction: "They will run into a brick wall.'' The shocking political demise of Cunningham, now serving an eight-year prison term, set off an eager crowd racing to take his place in the 50th District, which has a distinctly different profile from Democratic-leaning California: Its voters are two-thirds white, 70 percent professional, and favored President Bush in 2004 by a margin of 11 percentage points. On the Republican side, 14 candidates are jockeying for favor in a demolition derby, including Bilbray, state senator Bill Morrow, former assemblyman Howard Kaloogian, wealthy political neophytes Eric Roach and Alan Uke and even former professional football player Scott Turner. The free-for-all over an open seat in a district considered solidly Republican is "a kind of opportunity that comes up once in a generation'' and usually creates an incumbent for life, said Steve Frank, a GOP consultant and publisher of California Political News and Views, a Web site. So far, Bilbray, who lost his 49th Congressional District seat to Democrat Susan Davis in 2000 before the district lines were redrawn, is considered the front-runner. But even though he can claim years of political experience, fellow Republicans question his conservative values and note he most recently was a Virginia-based lobbyist -- hardly a positive association in the climate of current scandals. Morrow and Kaloogian are wooing the activist vote on the right, which includes armies of Christian evangelicals. But upping the ante are wealthy political newcomers such as venture capitalist Roach, now flooding the airwaves with advertisements proclaiming his conservative credentials. Busby, the Democrat who won 36 percent of the vote in the last election against Cunningham, is surprising some political observers in the 50th -- and becoming a target for national Republican groups -- with a savvy campaign that has garnered more than $1 million, including financial backing from top Democratic organizations. Law student Chris Young, a Democrat, has also jumped into the primary, but Busby clearly has been anointed by the party and deluged with high-profile fundraising help -- from former Virginia Gov. Mark Warner -- a 2008 presidential hopeful -- to the pro-choice women's political action committee, Emily's List, and popular Internet sites like the Daily Kos, where bloggers are urging check writers to support Busby and "turn CA-50 blue.'' Even Democrats admit victory will require some heavy lifting. Under the rules, a candidate who gets "50 percent plus one" of the vote wins the seat outright and serves the balance of Cunningham's term, which expires in November. If no candidate reaches that mark, the top vote-getters of each party will compete in a June 6 runoff. For Democrats to snatch the seat from Republicans is "a Nancy Pelosi dream,'' said Jon Fleischman, publisher of the FlashReport, the leading GOP Web site in California, referring to the House Democratic leader. "The incumbent protection plan passed by the Legislature is so good ... that the only way (Busby) has a chance is if all of the Republicans suddenly start World War III against each other," he said. "Even then, I'm skeptical; it's such a Republican seat.'' But other political observers -- such as National Journal's Chuck Todd -- say the 50th race is one to watch this year, suggesting that Busby may have a shot if her GOP opposition in June is a wealthy neophyte or someone that might be even too conservative for the conservative district. In addition to the ethics issue, analysts say the continued bad news from the war in Iraq also may sour voters on the Republican Party, which controls the presidency and both houses of Congress. Nevertheless, Bilbray predicted that Busby has no chance because Democrats "will be the last to respond to immigration.'' "The biggest ethical violation is to look the other way while there (are) 400 people dying coming into the country, and 11 million illegals,'' he said. "It's totally unethical to say we're taking care of the problem.'' Kaloogian, of San Marcos, acknowledges that immigration is intensely important to the area's Republicans, many of whom are angry with Bush and his proposal of a guest worker policy to allow immigrants to enter the country temporarily for seasonal jobs. They see "a disconnect ... between a strong position on the war on terror, and having open borders,'' he said. "People want security.'' Kaloogian -- who has been endorsed by conservative heroes James Dobson of Focus on the Family and publisher Steve Forbes, as well as the Minuteman citizen border patrol organization -- is even tougher on his Republican opponents. He says he has the strongest connection to the area's typical GOP voter who "gets up and takes his kids to school, comes home, goes to soccer practice and goes to church. They're church-attending, pro-life, Second Amendment, local control and family-oriented.'' But Republican and independent voters at Busby's house parties say the election may not be so predictable. "I'm voting with my head, and my heart,'' says Sonya Johnson, a contractor and Republican from Escondido, who sat with a group of women. After listening to Busby, Johnson said, "I'm totally impressed with her. ... I did a healthy contribution for her, and I'm going to volunteer.'' And Karl Kittrell, 80, a retired salesman and independent voter from Escondido, threw up his hands when asked about Cunningham, the Congress, and the elections ahead. The only thing he could be certain of, he said, is that "we need a complete overhaul.'' E-mail Carla Marinucci at [email protected]. Snapshot of the 50th Congressional District Ethnicity* White 66% Latino 19% Asian 10.3% *major census population groups . Voter registration Republican 44% Democrat 30% Independent 21.5% . 2004 presidential vote Democrat John Kerry 44% Republican George Bush 55% Other 1% Median income: $59,813 Sources: Secretary of State's office, 2000 census, Almanac of American Politics, ESRI, TeleAtlas John Blanchard / The Chronicle |
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I'm not surprised at this. How many times has it happened where a political entity through the years is in power for so longthat they think they're **** doesnt stink and they get too drunk on their own power, and BOOM!
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- All I ever wanted was to know that you were dreaming... |
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Jason, I must say I appreciate you posting this article, particularly since the last posts from you were decrying Feingold's Censure move. I sincerely hope the Dems stop worrying about how any move they make might help the other side and STAND for something for once! By GAWD, we've got a party platform too, and its time we remembered it
PS: I emailed Feingold and gave him a HUGE thumbs up for what he did and that I hope it gets legs and Bush is formally rebuked. Even if nothing more is done, I want that cretin to be forever disgraced. A stray bolt of lightning wouldnt come amiss.... ![]() |
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Supposedly the dems do have a plan that will be released closer to election time. This way it gives the Rethugs (thanks for that one, Mary) less time to shoot holes in it. Now all the dems really have to say is "look how horribly they're doing". They can ride on that for a bit. I really hope this plan materializes.
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~Suzy |
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Suze, I think Diss gets the credit for "rethugs" but I agree, it IS a good one! |
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~Suzy |
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RePUGNANTcans! ![]() |
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~Suzy |
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Suz: we are quite clever girlies we are!
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~Suzy |
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Sounds more like "DNC's Got A Gun" (Sung to the tune of Aerosmith's "Janie's Got A Gun")
"Dum, dum, dum, Bush Sr. what have you done Dum, dum, dum, it's the sound of your son Dum, dum, dum, Oil tycoon what have you done Dum, dum, dum, it's the sound, it's the sound... Nah, nah, nah, nah, nah, nah.... DNC's Got A Gun DNC's Got A Gun Shruby's whole world's come undone From lookin' straight at the sun What did his daddy do What kinda **** you did he put you citizens through They say when Shruby was arrested They found him underneath a train (Lookin' for WMD's or a clue...Still!) But man, he had it comin' Now that DNC's Got A Gun Ol Chimp ain't never gonna be the same DNC's Got A Gun DNC's Got A Gun Hillary's dog day's just begun Now everybody is on the run Tell me now it's untrue What did the GOP do Shruby jacked the little bitty voters The man has got to be insane They say the spell that he was under The lightnin' and the thunder Knew that someone had to stop his reign Move away, Move away from his reign Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah (Canada sounds fine ay) Move away, Move away from the rightwing reign Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah Move away, Move away, Move, move the hell outta away (Mexico sounds fine too!) DNC's Got A Gun DNC's Got A Gun Hillary's dog day's just begun Now everybody is on the run What did Chimp Co. do It's Hillary's last I.O.U. She had to take him down easy And put a bullet (Or ballot) in his brain (Bush had a brain?) She said 'cause nobody believes me The man was such a sleeze He ain't never gonna be the same Run away, run away with the 2008 election Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah Run away, run away, run, run away Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah Run away, run away, run, run away (in 2012) DNC's Got A Gun DNC's Got A Gun DNC's Got A Gun Everybody is on the run DNC's Got A Gun Hillary's dog day's just begun Now everybody's on the run (Honey, honey what's your problem) 'Cause DNC's Got A Gun (Tell me it ain't right) DNC's Got A Gun (Was it Bush daddys Oil company profiteerin'') Hillary's dog day's just begun (That made you scream at night) DNC's Got A Gun Hillary's dog day's just begun Now everybody's on the run DNC's Got A Gun" I know, my satire sucks...But I am bored stiff this mornin'
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"To acknowledge death is to accept freedom and responsibility." |
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~Suzy |
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