What if Bush had been right about Iraq all along?

[Brwn_eyes0511]

What if Bush has been right about Iraq all along?

February 1, 2005

BY MARK BROWN SUN-TIMES COLUMNIST



Maybe you're like me and have opposed the Iraq war since before the shooting started -- not to the point of joining any peace protests, but at least letting people know where you stood.



You didn't change your mind when our troops swept quickly into Baghdad or when you saw the rabble that celebrated the toppling of the Saddam Hussein statue, figuring that little had been accomplished and that the tough job still lay ahead.

Despite your misgivings, you didn't demand the troops be brought home immediately afterward, believing the United States must at least try to finish what it started to avoid even greater bloodshed. And while you cheered Saddam's capture, you couldn't help but thinking I-told-you-so in the months that followed as the violence continued to spread and the death toll mounted.

By now, you might have even voted against George Bush -- a second time -- to register your disapproval.

But after watching Sunday's election in Iraq and seeing the first clear sign that freedom really may mean something to the Iraqi people, you have to be asking yourself: What if it turns out Bush was right, and we were wrong?

It's hard to swallow, isn't it?

Americans cross own barrier



If you fit the previously stated profile, I know you're fighting the idea, because I am, too. And if you were with the president from the start, I've already got your blood boiling.

For those who've been in the same boat with me, we don't need to concede the point just yet. There's a long way to go. But I think we have to face the possibility.

I won't say that it had never occurred to me previously, but it's never gone through my mind as strongly as when I watched the television coverage from Iraq that showed long lines of people risking their lives by turning out to vote, honest looks of joy on so many of their faces.

Some CNN guest expert was opining Monday that the Iraqi people crossed a psychological barrier by voting and getting a taste of free choice (setting aside the argument that they only did so under orders from their religious leaders).

I think it's possible that some of the American people will have crossed a psychological barrier as well.

Deciding democracy's worth



On the other side of that barrier is a concept some of us have had a hard time swallowing:

Maybe the United States really can establish a peaceable democratic government in Iraq, and if so, that would be worth something.

Would it be worth all the money we've spent? Certainly.

Would it be worth all the lives that have been lost? That's the more difficult question, and while I reserve judgment on that score until such a day arrives, it seems probable that history would answer yes to that as well.

I don't want to get carried away in the moment.

Going to war still sent so many terrible messages to the world.

Most of the obstacles to success in Iraq are all still there, the ones that have always led me to believe that we would eventually be forced to leave the country with our tail tucked between our legs. (I've maintained from the start that if you were impressed by the demonstrations in the streets of Baghdad when we arrived, wait until you see how they celebrate our departure, no matter the circumstances.)

In and of itself, the voting did nothing to end the violence. The forces trying to regain the power they have lost -- and the outside elements supporting them -- will be no less determined to disrupt our efforts and to drive us out.

Somebody still has to find a way to bring the Sunnis into the political process before the next round of elections at year's end. The Iraqi government still must develop the capacity to protect its people.

And there seems every possibility that this could yet end in civil war the day we leave or with Iraq becoming an Islamic state every bit as hostile to our national interests as was Saddam.

Penance could be required



But on Sunday, we caught a glimpse of the flip side. We could finally see signs that a majority of the Iraqi people perceive something to be gained from this brave new world we are forcing on them.

Instead of making the elections a further expression of "Yankee Go Home," their participation gave us hope that all those soldiers haven't died in vain.

Obviously, I'm still curious to see if Bush is willing to allow the Iraqis to install a government that is free to kick us out or to oppose our other foreign policy efforts in the region.

So is the rest of the world.

For now, though, I think we have to cut the president some slack about a timetable for his exit strategy.

If it turns out Bush was right all along, this is going to require some serious penance.

Maybe I'd have to vote Republican in 2008.

[irishgrl]

The Sunni response to the results of the vote is likely to be a crucial factor in whether the election ultimately helps curb Iraq's insurgency and hastens the withdrawal of 152,000 American troops. But their first reaction was bleak: Low turnout in Sunni neighborhoods and cities suggested they may have little say in Iraq's 275-member Transitional National Assembly.


"From my point of view, this election was a failure," said Ayad al-Samaraee, a senior member of the Sunni-led Iraqi Islamic Party, "It would have been a success if most of the Iraqis came to this election, but as we see, there were divisions between those who are for and those who are against it."

and then this:

Acknowledging Monday that "Sunni participation was considerably lower than participation by the other groups," a U.S. diplomat said that "it isn't . . . a good thing when you have a significant group of people in a country that is either intimidated or involved in military operations, or the victims of military operations, or voluntarily excluding themselves from a political process."


From a Yahoo AP news article (http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/chitribts/20050201/ts_chicagotrib/earlytallyhasshiitesoptimistic&e=5)

[dissention]

Considering that over 60% of Iraq is comprised of Shiite Muslims, Mr. Brown needs a heavy dose of reality if he thinks that this farce is going to play well.

[sodascouts]

The Sunni response to the results of the vote is likely to be a crucial factor in whether the election ultimately helps curb Iraq's insurgency and hastens the withdrawal of 152,000 American troops. But their first reaction was bleak: Low turnout in Sunni neighborhoods and cities suggested they may have little say in Iraq's 275-member Transitional National Assembly.


"From my point of view, this election was a failure," said Ayad al-Samaraee, a senior member of the Sunni-led Iraqi Islamic Party, "It would have been a success if most of the Iraqis came to this election, but as we see, there were divisions between those who are for and those who are against it."

and then this:

Acknowledging Monday that "Sunni participation was considerably lower than participation by the other groups," a U.S. diplomat said that "it isn't . . . a good thing when you have a significant group of people in a country that is either intimidated or involved in military operations, or the victims of military operations, or voluntarily excluding themselves from a political process."


From a Yahoo AP news article (http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/chitribts/20050201/ts_chicagotrib/earlytallyhasshiitesoptimistic&e=5)

Of course this guy views the election as a failure - the Sunnis lost power!

Finally, the majority can rule in Iraq.

How about these quotes, culled from an article on the CNN.com site: http://www.cnn.com/2005/WORLD/meast/01/30/iraq.main/

"This is the greatest day in the history of this country," Iraqi national security adviser Mowaffak al-Rubaie told CNN.

---

Initial reports indicated voter turnout appeared to be higher than expected, even in Sunni-majority areas where insurgent attacks have occurred on a near daily basis.

---

Adnan Pachachi, a Sunni member of the former Iraqi Governing Council who had advocated a delay in the vote, said turnout in cities such as Mosul and Falluja "has been far greater than we had expected. "

---

Interim President Ghazi al-Yawar was among the first to vote Sunday in Baghdad.

"Deep in my heart, I feel that Iraqis deserve free elections," al-Yawar said after casting his ballot. "All Iraqis are winners today. There are no losers."

[Merf]

What if Bush has been right about Iraq all along?


But he hasn't been right about Iraq all along. He was wrong from the get-go. Does anyone remember the whole Weapons of Mass Destruction thing? The families of the nearly 1500 American soldiers who've died so far in Iraq based on that bold-faced lie won't forget that easily, and neither will I. I don't support nation building. If Bill Clinton had tried this mess with a Republican congress? They would have had his head on a silver platter. It's amazing to me that so many Americans seem to have forgotten the LIE that got us into this mess in the first place.

As far as I'm concerned? That lie to us? trumps any "good" that elections will do over there. Call me a pessimist, but this election is not a quick fix.

EDIT: How ironic that they're replaying part of Bush's 2003 SOTU speech when he talks about Saddam Hussein obtaining Uranium from Africa. LIAR.

[SuzeQuze]

The estimated number of innocent Iraqis killed in this war is 100,000. Is that worth it? There were promising reports of good election turnout in Vietnam which nevertheless remained a quagmire. Time will tell whether democracy in Iraq will be a success but that is independent of the success/failure of the war. To me war is a failure period. I just don't believe in it. Maybe as a last resort I could condone it but we weren't even close. We began this war to fight terrorism, not spread democracy to a fascist country, at least that is what we were told.

[Brwn_eyes0511]

The estimated number of innocent Iraqis killed in this war is 100,000. Is that worth it? There were promising reports of good election turnout in Vietnam which nevertheless remained a quagmire. Time will tell whether democracy in Iraq will be a success but that is independent of the success/failure of the war. To me war is a failure period. I just don't believe in it. Maybe as a last resort I could condone it but we weren't even close. We began this war to fight terrorism, not spread democracy to a fascist country, at least that is what we were told.

Can't kill two birds with one stone?

Can't one still fight against terrorism and yet help bring democracy and freedom...don't they go hand in hand? :shrug:

[Brwn_eyes0511]

My dear boy, you don't for a minute believe that Bush's agenda involves bringing democracy to Iraqi people do you? I see it now, he just cares too much about the poor Iraqi's and simply could not sit by and watch them suffer. Three cheers for the humanitarian!

And sarcasim get us where exactly? You are very much intitled to what YOU believe are Bush's feelings on the "poor" in Iraq and exactly who he cares about. But hopefully slowly bringing democracy to the Iraqis, will speak volumes about Bush's intentions.

[dissention]

But hopefully slowly bringing democracy to the Iraqis, will speak volumes about Bush's intentions.

:laugh:

I think his intentions were made perfectly clear when he invaded Iraq for no reason, killed innocent people and children, sexually abused prisoners, and named American military camps and bases Exxon and Shell. :laugh:

[ontheEdgeof17]

But hopefully slowly bringing democracy to the Iraqis, will speak volumes about Bush's intentions.


To Americianize everyone?

[Brwn_eyes0511]

To Americianize everyone?

If Americanize means freedom and democracy...I guess so. :confused:

[Brwn_eyes0511]

:laugh:

I think his intentions were made perfectly clear when he invaded Iraq for no reason, killed innocent people and children, sexually abused prisoners, and named American military camps and bases Exxon and Shell. :laugh:

ahh yes...I do remember him sexually abusing those prisoners...remember how the photos were all over the news? WTF? :rolleyes:

[dissention]

ahh yes...I do remember him sexually abusing those prisoners...remember how the photos were all over the news? WTF? :rolleyes:

You must not know much about the whole scandal, I take it.

[amber]

My dear boy, you don't for a minute believe that Bush's agenda involves bringing democracy to Iraqi people do you? I see it now, he just cares too much about the poor Iraqi's and simply could not sit by and watch them suffer. Three cheers for the humanitarian!
:laugh: :lol: :laugh: :lol:
funny, and perfectly insightful and on point, as usual. :nod:
god, that guys motives make me sick to my soul... :mad:

[dissention]

If Americanize means freedom and democracy...I guess so. :confused:

And you wonder why foreign countries can't stand Americans? :laugh: It's partly due to ridiculous statements like that.

[Brwn_eyes0511]

And you wonder why foreign countries can't stand Americans? :laugh: It's partly due to ridiculous statements like that.

Why is wanting freedom for the enitre world "ridiculous"? I'm not the one who called it "Americanized". :shrug:

[dissention]

Why is wanting freedom for the enitre world "ridiculous"? I'm not the one who called it "Americanized". :shrug:

Yes you did. It's ignorant and another example of the infuriating flag-waving that has turned this country into an egotistical joke to the rest of the world.

[Brwn_eyes0511]

Yes you did. It's ignorant and another example of the infuriating flag-waving that has turned this country into an egotistical joke to the rest of the world.

Yes I did what? All I said was that IF (IF IF IF IF IF IF) the previous poster considered FREEDOM AND DEMOCRACY to be deemed "Americanizing" then yes I believe that.

BUT I DONT feel that its "Americanizing".

[ontheEdgeof17]

Yes you did. It's ignorant and another example of the infuriating flag-waving that has turned this country into an egotistical joke to the rest of the world.


"We'll put a boot in their ass. It's the American way." :rolleyes:

TOBY KEITH FOR IRAQI PRESIDENT! He's got the American way down pat. :distress:

[Brwn_eyes0511]

"We'll put a boot in their ass. It's the American way." :rolleyes:

TOBY KEITH FOR IRAQI PRESIDENT! He's got the American way down pat. :distress:

That's Toby's opinion isn't it. Not the view of EVERY REPUBLICAN/CONSERVATIVE!

Although I like Toby, and understand his anger when he wrote the song...it still doesen't rep. all republicans.

[dissention]

"We'll put a boot in their ass. It's the American way." :rolleyes:

TOBY KEITH FOR IRAQI PRESIDENT! He's got the American way down pat. :distress:

And he claims to be a Democrat. :laugh:

Darryl Worley can be his running mate for veep. "Have you forgotten?" :rolleyes:

[GypsySorcerer]

And he claims to be a Democrat. :laugh:

Darryl Worley can be his running mate for veep. "Have you forgotten?" :rolleyes:

This gets us back to the conversation with Jason about Bush's base. :laugh:

[dissention]

This gets us back to the conversation with Jason about Bush's base. :laugh:

:laugh:

The have's and the have more's. :thumbsup:

[amber]

:laugh:

The have's and the have more's. :thumbsup:
:nod: :nod: :nod:
Oh, and don't forget the righteously religious ignorant. :shrug:

[dissention]

:nod: :nod: :nod:
Oh, and don't forget the righteously religious ignorant. :shrug:

Well, I won't go there. :laugh:

[amber]

Well, I won't go there. :laugh:
As if you'd shied away before... :laugh:
I submit, that is who elected him... :shrug:
Of course I mean aside from all the well read, well educated, thoughtful repubs.... :)

[dissention]

As if you'd shied away before... :laugh:
I submit, that is who elected him... :shrug:
Of course I mean aside from all the well read, well educated, thoughtful repubs.... :)

Religious people frighten me and they always have. Plain and simple. :laugh:

[amber]

Religious people frighten me and they always have. Plain and simple. :laugh:
Me, too. It's pretty knee jerk.
though, since i am such an enlightened person, I can get along with everyone... :laugh:
Oops, change "enlightened" to "people i was forced to grow up with..."
Can you say..."mormon?" :shocked:

[Hawkeye]

And he claims to be a Democrat. :laugh:

Darryl Worley can be his running mate for veep. "Have you forgotten?" :rolleyes:

Ahhhh, I HATE that song. That song makes me appreciate even more what Stevie and Fleetwood MAc did with Illume. The way he capitolized off 9/11 with his stupid whiny song.

[dissention]

Me, too. It's pretty knee jerk.
though, since i am such an enlightened person, I can get along with everyone... :laugh:
Oops, change "enlightened" to "people i was forced to grow up with..."
Can you say..."mormon?" :shocked:

:eek: I would have died a slow death growing up with Mormons.

[Brwn_eyes0511]

Ahhhh, I HATE that song. That song makes me appreciate even more what Stevie and Fleetwood MAc did with Illume. The way he capitolized off 9/11 with his stupid whiny song.

Writing a song that expresses ones feelings and anger is whiny? Boy then there are just too many whiny songs out there then...

But I do agree that Illume is a great song.

[Hawkeye]

:eek: I would have died a slow death growing up with Mormons.

But at least you could've slowly died with 2 wives :laugh:

[dissention]

Writing a song that expresses ones feelings and anger is whiny? Boy then there are just too many whiny songs out there then...

I don't think it's whiney, I think it's cheap, tawdry, and in poor taste. :xoxo:

[Brwn_eyes0511]

I don't think it's whiney, I think it's cheap, tawdry, and in poor taste. :xoxo:

opinions are so fun aren't they.

Thank the good Lord above that he gave most of us a brain where we can all think differently (and not all like you...the world would be in chaos! ;) ). I think its great how you can think its "cheap, tawdry" but someone else can think of it as a good patriotic song.

[Hawkeye]

Writing a song that expresses ones feelings and anger is whiny? Boy then there are just too many whiny songs out there then...

But I do agree that Illume is a great song..
.
absolutely not. Lets compare Have You Forgotten to like I said Illume. Illume was nothiong more then Stevie expressing her feelings directly after September 11th (written 10/10/01) She shows the fear she felt that day and did so beautifully, and what Lindsey diid spinning the production to making the song slightly experimental also helped to make the song a masterpiece. And was the song ever a single, no. Did they even play it live, although it would've made my year, no they never used their 9/11 song as a selling thing as I kind expected them to. I didn't hear Stevie ever mention Illume in an interview.

Now HAve You Forgotten, I see no feelings there, I see it as a way for that guy to make money and to push the war.

[dissention]

I think its great how you can think its "cheap, tawdry" but someone else can think of it as a good patriotic song.

Have you actually read the lyrics? My word, it's atrocious. :laugh:

[GypsySorcerer]

I don't like Worley's song or Illume. :shocked:

[dissention]

Now HAve You Forgotten, I see no feelings there, I see it as a way for that guy to make money and to push the war.

:thumbsup: :thumbsup: :thumbsup:

[Brwn_eyes0511]

Have you actually read the lyrics? My word, it's atrocious. :laugh:

The lyrics make since. It's a country song...not some poetic statement.

[dissention]

The lyrics make since. It's a country song...not some poetic statement.

They make no sense. He attempted to link Iraq with 9/11. There were no links. Try again. :wavey:

[Brwn_eyes0511]

.
.
absolutely not. Lets compare Have You Forgotten to like I said Illume. Illume was nothiong more then Stevie expressing her feelings directly after September 11th (written 10/10/01) She shows the fear she felt that day and did so beautifully, and what Lindsey diid spinning the production to making the song slightly experimental also helped to make the song a masterpiece. And was the song ever a single, no. Did they even play it live, although it would've made my year, no they never used their 9/11 song as a selling thing as I kind expected them to. I didn't hear Stevie ever mention Illume in an interview.

Now HAve You Forgotten, I see no feelings there, I see it as a way for that guy to make money and to push the war.

What your arguing about is songwriting styles and who writes better than whom. Who are you to say what "feelings" any person has....gosh :rolleyes:

[Brwn_eyes0511]

They make no sense. He attempted to link Iraq with 9/11. There were no links. Try again. :wavey:

I don't see the word Iraq in the song?!?

[dissention]

I don't see the word Iraq in the song?!?

:laugh:

It was a song advocating war and was released during the build-up to the Iraq invasion. He used 9/11 in it to get people to support it. You don't see that? :eek:

[Hawkeye]

I don't see the word Iraq in the song?!?

He didn't need to say it, but it's implied, It think its well known I'm not the brightest ledgie here and don't have an article for every situation, but even I can easily see how the whole song is trying to make America support the war. The song makes me want to throw up.

[amber]

:eek: I would have died a slow death growing up with Mormons.
:laugh: :laugh:
well, some of them were good at drama, funny, and in choir...
but i was used to it by that time, and my main friends went to Nuclear protests in Nevada and such... :D But my whole town was upper middle class, white, and Christian, so.. :shrug:
Amber "black sheep" G.

[Brwn_eyes0511]

:laugh:

It was a song advocating war and was released during the build-up to the Iraq invasion. He used 9/11 in it to get people to support it. You don't see that? :eek:

I see him trying to gain support for the war on terrorism...yes.

So....

[Brwn_eyes0511]

He didn't need to say it, but it's implied, It think its well known I'm not the brightest ledgie here and don't have an article for every situation, but even I can easily see how the whole song is trying to make America support the war. The song makes me want to throw up.

Yes I never said that it didn't call for a general American support of the war. But I don't see what it specifically has to do with "IRAQ"

[dissention]

war on terrorism

What a ridiculous term. :laugh:

[Brwn_eyes0511]

What a ridiculous term. :laugh:

what a rediculous reply :laugh:

bickering is fun. :rolleyes:

[amber]

what a rediculous reply :laugh:

bickering is fun. :rolleyes:
Not really. about the reply. Don't you see that "war on terrorism" is an oxymoron?
Highlight on the "moron" :D

[Brwn_eyes0511]

Not really. about the reply. Don't you see that "war on terrorism" is an oxymoron?
Highlight on the "moron" :D

Not really. Unless you view war ALWAYS as an act of terror and not defense.

[amber]

Not really. Unless you view war ALWAYS as an act of terror and not defense.
Well, I view this war, as it has been conducted, full of lies, by Bush, as an act of terror, yes. Especially since records show that we had knowledge of the terrorist attacks before they were executed, and failed to respond with the best of our capabilities to them, while they were going on. I view this war as a tool of the repub party to carry out their own nefarious schemes. :) Schemes that have a lot to do with world domination and oil :nod:

[Johnny Stew]

Not really. Unless you view war ALWAYS as an act of terror and not defense.

War against Osama Bin Laden and the al-Qaida... act of defense.
War on Saddam Hussein and Iraq... act of revenge.

[Brwn_eyes0511]

War against Osama Bin Laden and the al-Qaida... act of defense.
War on Saddam Hussein and Iraq... act of revenge.

Saddam Hussein is not a terroist :lol: :lol:

I guess mass murders of your OWN FRIGGIN' people don't count.

[Brwn_eyes0511]

Well, I view this war, as it has been conducted, full of lies, by Bush, as an act of terror, yes. Especially since records show that we had knowledge of the terrorist attacks before they were executed, and failed to respond to the best of our capabilities to them, while they were going on. I view this war as a tool of the repub party to carry out their own nefarious schemes. :) Schemes that have a lot to do with world domination and oil :nod:

somebody has been passing that paranoia pill around again!

[amber]

somebody has been passing that paranoia pill around again!
No, just articles by respected journalists and political commentators.... :)

[Brwn_eyes0511]

No, just articles by respected journalists and political commentators.... :)

Hey I read those guys too...oops wait.

[Moony]

What if Bush has been right about Iraq all along?
.
What if monkeys started flying out of my ass?

[amber]

What if monkeys started flying out of my ass?
ROTMFLAO! :lol: :lol: :lol: *gigglicious*seriously, I read it five times in a row and laughed every time*
L.
F.

[Brwn_eyes0511]

What if monkeys started flying out of my ass?

I'd be freaked out...but amused. :thumbsup:

[irishgrl]

Of course this guy views the election as a failure - the Sunnis lost power!

Finally, the majority can rule in Iraq.

How about these quotes, culled from an article on the CNN.com site: http://www.cnn.com/2005/WORLD/meast/01/30/iraq.main/

"This is the greatest day in the history of this country," Iraqi national security adviser Mowaffak al-Rubaie told CNN.

---

Initial reports indicated voter turnout appeared to be higher than expected, even in Sunni-majority areas where insurgent attacks have occurred on a near daily basis.

---

Adnan Pachachi, a Sunni member of the former Iraqi Governing Council who had advocated a delay in the vote, said turnout in cities such as Mosul and Falluja "has been far greater than we had expected. "

---

Interim President Ghazi al-Yawar was among the first to vote Sunday in Baghdad.

"Deep in my heart, I feel that Iraqis deserve free elections," al-Yawar said after casting his ballot. "All Iraqis are winners today. There are no losers."

Nancy, if you think the troubles in Iraq are over now that the Shiites are back in power you are sadly mistaken. Apparently you think things are now going to be ok? I have the sneaking suspicion that things are now going to get progressively worse. The insurgency will respond, I fear, with even MORE terrorism.

The Sunni response to the results of the vote is likely to be a crucial factor in whether the election ultimately helps curb Iraq's insurgency and hastens the withdrawal of 152,000 American troops. But their first reaction was bleak: Low turnout in Sunni neighborhoods and cities suggested they may have little say in Iraq's 275-member Transitional National Assembly.

[irishgrl]

The Iraqi election (http://www.truthout.org/docs_2005/020105F.shtml)

here is a partial excerpt:
The turnout for the elections was higher than had been predicted by the Iraqi Electoral Commission, which had suggested that about half of the eligible voters, or 6 to 7 million, would come out. By the Monday after the Jan. 30 elections, the commission was estimating that about 8 million, or 57 percent of the eligible voters, had cast ballots. This estimate was not founded on any exact statistics, which had to await the counting of the ballots, but appears to have been little more than a guess. The commission's earliest guess was 72 percent, a clear error. In any case, it seems clear that Kurds and Shiites came out in great numbers, and both will do well in Parliament.

As expected, voting was extremely light in the Sunni Arab areas. In Babil province, the trouble spots of Latifiyah and Mahmudiyah avoided violence, but few voters ventured out. The Arabs of Kirkuk, angry about a ruling allowing Kurds who used to reside in the city to vote in local elections, for the most part boycotted the process. In Mosul, the Arab quarters in the west saw firefights, though Kurds and Turkmens came out to vote in the eastern parts of the city. The four polling stations in Baghdad's Sunni Adhamiyah district did not even bother to open. Polling stations in Fallujah, Ramadi, Tikrit and Beiji were reported to be largely empty all day. In the sizable city of Ramadi, only 300 ballots were cast.

The Sunni Arabs of Samarra, a city of some 200,000, cast only 1,400 ballots. The U.S. military had conducted operations in Samarra in October as a prelude for its November campaign against Fallujah, insisting that these military actions would prepare the way for successful elections in these cities. Most of Fallujah was in refugee camps by the time of the elections, and a sullen and angry Sunni Arab population largely rejected the polls as illegitimate because they were conducted under foreign military occupation. The threats brandished by the remnants of the Baath military, which is waging a guerrilla war against the United States and the new order, also took their toll.

The guerrilla war being waged by some Sunni Arabs will not end with the elections. Their leadership is committed to destabilizing the country, pushing the Americans back out, and mounting yet another coup. The resistance consists largely of ex-Baath military along with some religious radicals (very few of whom are foreigners). They have enough munitions, money and know-how to fight for years, though in the end they will lose. The Sunni Arab populace continues largely to support the guerrillas. Over half in a recent poll said that attacks on the U.S. military in Iraq are legitimate.

One disturbing trend in this election was the reinforcement of ethnic political identity. Iraq is a diverse society, but has most often sought forms of politics that deemphasize ethnicity. The price of such an approach, however, has often been authoritarian rule, as under the pan-Arab Baath Party that ruled from 1968 to 2003. In the north of Iraq, Kurds predominate. They do not speak Arabic as their mother tongue but rather an Indo-European language related to Persian (and distantly to English). Their Islam is mystical, traditional and somewhat rural, and most of them are not very interested in the minutiae of religious law. In recent years they have urbanized, as at Kirkuk and Sulaymaniyah, but have developed a relatively liberal approach to Islam and politics. Kurds had long had separatist tendencies and faced severe repression from Baghdad. Under the American no-fly zone of the 1990s, they developed a Kurdistan Regional Assembly, virtually a semiautonomous government, and now fear being reintegrated into Arab Iraq as second-class citizens.

The center-north of Iraq is dominated by Sunni Arabs. Arabs are simply populations that speak Arabic as their native language; they are not a racial category. Sunnis constitute some 90 percent of the Muslims in the world, but are a minority of 20 percent in Iraq. They honor four early "rightly guided" caliphs, or vicars, of the prophet Mohammed and lack a strict clerical hierarchy. Sunni reformists often resemble Protestants in rejecting saint-worship and mediation between God and human beings.

East Baghdad and the south are Shiite Arab territory. Shiites honor the prophet's son-in-law and cousin, Ali, as the rightful successor of Mohammed, and invest the descendants of the prophet with special honor. The Iraqi Shiites do have a clerical hierarchy, at the pinnacle of which is the Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani, the chief source of religious authority.

In Iraq, the Sunni Arabs have traditionally predominated, and they have held political power until Jan. 30. During the past three centuries, a conversion movement among tribes in the south has produced a Shiite majority in Iraq. But the Shiites were most often poor, rural and relatively powerless. In the past half-century, many have moved to the cities, gained modern educations, and thrown up religious parties that aim to establish an Islamic republic with a Shiite cast. These parties joined together to form the United Iraqi Alliance.

The UIA appears to have done extremely well in many Iraqi provinces and may well dominate the new Parliament. Because the Sunni Arabs did not come out in force to vote, the Shiite religious vote was magnified. That is, the electoral system is such that parties are seated in Parliament in accordance with their proportion of the national vote. If a party gets 10 percent, it will get about 27 seats. Because of the proportional nature of the election, if one group boycotts, the other groups do even better. The Shiite leadership will try to reach out to the Sunni Arab politicians, including them in the new government and in the constitution-drafting process. But since the Sunnis will have relatively few seats in Parliament, they may be even more sullen than before. Moreover, the politics of the UIA may not be to their liking.

If the United Iraqi Alliance can form a government, probably in coalition with smaller parties, it will almost certainly move in two controversial directions. First, it will seek to implement religious law in the place of civil law for matters of personal status, and possibly in other realms, such as commerce. Islamic law has provisions for matters such as marriage, divorce, inheritance, alimony and so forth. Muslim fundamentalists throughout the world have adopted as one of their main political goals the repeal of civil laws that were most often adopted during or just after the age of European colonialism (roughly from the mid-1700s until the 1960s), and to replace them with a rigid and often medieval interpretation of Islamic law.

This form of Islamic law (which in other hands can be dynamic and innovative) would typically deny divorced women any inheritance, give girls half the inheritance received by their brothers, restrict women's right to initiate divorce, restrict women's appearance in public, and make the testimony of women in court worth half that of a man. Middle-class Sunni Arabs and educated women, along with most Kurds, would likely strongly resist this initiative. The Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq, among the main Shiite parties, and Grand Ayatollah Sistani have already telegraphed their desire for this change.

The other big political fight likely to ensue in the new, Shiite-dominated Parliament is over a centralized government versus a loose federation. The Kurds want what they call a "Canada" model, or perhaps one modeled on the Swiss cantons, in which the central government cedes many rights to the provinces. In American terms, the Kurds want "states' rights." Their maximal demands are the creation of a Kurdish super-province, Kurdistan, on an ethnic basis; the joining to Kurdistan of the oil-rich Kirkuk area; no federal troops on Kurdistan soil; and the retention of petroleum profits inside the Kurdistan province.

In contrast, the Shiite political traditions in Iraq have all favored a strong central government, and Baghdad and Najaf are unlikely to want to give away so much to "Kurdistan." Since the Kurds will be well represented in Parliament, have a big, well-trained paramilitary, and have a veto over any new constitution, this particular struggle is one they will not concede without a fight.

Although the vast majority of Iraqis want U.S. troops out of their country immediately or soon after Parliament is seated, according to a recent Zogby poll, it seems unlikely that the new political class will call for a precipitate U.S. withdrawal. They are still afraid of being assassinated by the guerrillas. Over time a split may develop between the rank and file, impatient for an American departure, and politicians who still depend on U.S. forces for their own protection. When Iraqi leaders feel strong enough to deal with the guerrillas by themselves, they will have a strong impetus to ask the United States to leave altogether. All Iraqis remember Abu Ghraib and other missteps of the U.S. military in their country.

The new Iraq is forming, but its formation will involve struggle as well as compromise, strong stands as well as bargaining. How successful post-Saddam Iraq is depends very much on whether all groups are mature enough to make the necessary compromises and strike a balance between the religious and secular, and between the center and the provinces.

-------

Juan Cole is a professor of modern Middle Eastern and South Asian history at the University of Michigan and the author of "Sacred Space and Holy War" (IB Tauris, 2002).

[dissention]

I guess mass murders of your OWN FRIGGIN' people don't count.

We certainly turned a blind eye to the genocide of the Sudanese, didn't we?

[Brwn_eyes0511]

We certainly turned a blind eye to the genocide of the Sudanese, didn't we?

And what would you have proposed that we do about that? Use *GOD FORBID*....force? Or is it wrong to help others. American's get crucified for it daily by liberal trators.

[dissention]

And what would you have proposed that we do about that? Use *GOD FORBID*....force? Or is it wrong to help others. American's get crucified for it daily by liberal trators.

Liberal traitors? You're a real piece of work.

[gldstwmn]

What if Bush has been right about Iraq all along?


I'm quite sure that he's not, so I'm not going to worry about it.

[estranged4life]

Ahhhh, I HATE that song. That song makes me appreciate even more what Stevie and Fleetwood MAc did with Illume. The way he capitolized off 9/11 with his stupid whiny song.

"Have you forgotten...My career already?" which ranks up there with the lamest-of-the-lamest songs EVER (Nothing is lamer than Lee Greenwood's "God Bless the USA...When a disaster happens so I can pad my pocketbook with my attempt at being patriotic cause these sheeple will hit the stores for my release faster than a Bush declaring war on some country who has those mysterious WMD's...By the way, Shouldnt another terrorist attack being coming soon...Daddy needs to still pay for that lil' sexy sixteen year old female that I was caught with...Oh, Didn't I mention that I am patriotic and God Bless The USA?" )

Yo, Greenwood...Branson, Missouri called, And said they're missin' their idiot!!!

[SuzeQuze]

"Have you forgotten...My career already?" which ranks up there with the lamest-of-the-lamest songs EVER (Nothing is lamer than Lee Greenwood's "God Bless the USA...When a disaster happens so I can pad my pocketbook with my attempt at being patriotic cause these sheeple will hit the stores for my release faster than a Bush declaring war on some country who has those mysterious WMD's...By the way, Shouldnt another terrorist attack being coming soon...Daddy needs to still pay for that lil' sexy sixteen year old female that I was caught with...Oh, Didn't I mention that I am patritic and God Bless The USA?" )

:laugh: :laugh:

Hmm, Worley's song must have been phenomenal since I have absolutely no recollection of it. I'm not sure I've even heard it.

My blood pressure is much better since I started using my ignore list. :nod:

[estranged4life]

Liberal traitors? You're a real piece of work.

are traitors...I guess us INDEPENDENTS are "uninterested conspiracists" or something-or-another :shrug: :thumbsup:

[estranged4life]

:laugh: :laugh:

Hmm, Worley's song must have been phenomenal since I have absolutely no recollection of it. I'm not sure I've even heard it.

My blood pressure is much better since I started using my ignore list. :nod:

I listen to country, And I COMPLUCKING HATE Darryl "Waaaahhh Boo-frikkedy-doo" Worley and his constant whinebagging...Trust me, ya dont want to hear his crapfilled music :lol: :nod:

I do like most of Toby Keith's music, Just not his stupid ass attempt at being patriotic, Which sucked 52-kinds-of-ass harder than the asskicking his beloved O-Who Gooners received by those Tusk loving USC Trojans.

Yo, Mr.Keith...Sit down before you FALL down :nod:

[heyjupiter678]

Hmm, Worley's song must have been phenomenal since I have absolutely no recollection of it. I'm not sure I've even heard it. C'mon, you have to remember the song that rhymes "forgotten" with "Bin Laden." :eek:
My blood pressure is much better since I started using my ignore list. :nod: :laugh: I've been using mine for a while now, but I think it's time I update it.

[SuzeQuze]

C'mon, you have to remember the song that rhymes "forgotten" with "Bin Laden." :eek:
:laugh: I've been using mine for a while now, but I think it's time I update it.

Honestly Mikki, I think I am happily ignorant of that song! :laugh:

[Brwn_eyes0511]

:laugh: :laugh:

Hmm, Worley's song must have been phenomenal since I have absolutely no recollection of it. I'm not sure I've even heard it.

My blood pressure is much better since I started using my ignore list. :nod:

My my...you shouldn't let little all me get to you. No wonder you guys can never win an election if you let little ol' me bother you so much.... :rolleyes:

[irishgrl]

My my...you shouldn't let little all me get to you. No wonder you guys can never win an election if you let little ol' me bother you so much.... :rolleyes:

methinks you overestimate your importance :nod:

[Brwn_eyes0511]

Liberal traitors? You're a real piece of work.

Well considering that you didn't respond to the statement...guess you don't have a response!?!

[Brwn_eyes0511]

methinks you overestimate your importance :nod:

no..I just got through saying...if you let little ol' unimportant folks like me bother you...then its no wonder your party is falling apart and continue to loose elections.

[dissention]

Well considering that you didn't respond to the statement...guess you don't have a response!?!

Because it doesn't merit a response. :xoxo:

[DrummerDeanna]

:laugh: :laugh:

Hmm, Worley's song must have been phenomenal since I have absolutely no recollection of it. I'm not sure I've even heard it.

My blood pressure is much better since I started using my ignore list. :nod:

I must try that...my blood pressure can't take much more of this :laugh:

[Brwn_eyes0511]

I must try that...my blood pressure can't take much more of this :laugh:

You don't like to hear anything that contradicts you and you're little "liberal" world. Well guess what, that's not the REAL WORLD. I hope you enjoy the stark reality tonight when the President is on every major channel giving the SOTU speach.

Things that you say make me angry sometimes, but I laugh at most of it. But yet things like that somehow bother you guys...

whatever...

[Brwn_eyes0511]

Because it doesn't merit a response. :xoxo:

Oh yea thats educated.

Well if we go by that rule of thumb, then I shouldn't even bother to post to your posts...but somehow I always seem to do so.

[SuzeQuze]

I must try that...my blood pressure can't take much more of this :laugh:

Yeah, I see you're still in it trying to fight the good fight. Some battles are better left alone to conserve energy for the ones that matter. :nod:

[amber]

Yeah, I see you're still in it trying to fight the good fight. Some battles are better left alone to conserve energy for the ones that matter. :nod:
Or even...ones where the opposition has a logical point? :rolleyes:

[SuzeQuze]

Or even...ones where the opposition has a logical point? :rolleyes:

A point is underrated among neocons. Oh I'm such an elitist snob! ;)

If Bush turns out to have been right about Iraq all along I'll eat my right toe. Of course, it's already been proven otherwise but why read factual information? :shrug: ;)

[amber]

A point is underrated among neocons. Oh I'm such an elitist snob! ;)

If Bush turns out to have been right about Iraq all along I'll eat my right toe. Of course, it's already been proven otherwise but why read factual information? :shrug: ;)
Yeah, that toe is already pretty safe if you ask me! :nod:

[Brwn_eyes0511]

Or even...ones where the opposition has a logical point? :rolleyes:

Yea of course I have no logical point..why have one of those :rolleyes:

so many losers on this forum.

[Serrart]

Bush wasn't right. Even If I believed that he honestly thought he was bringing democracy in Iraq (and I don't) his war killed directly and indirectly hundreds of thousands people, pushed a country already in desperate conditions in a humanitarian tragedy, with no food, no medicines, no water, caused a civil war, created a brand new Iraqi branch for Al Queida, and gave to Osama Bin Laden's followers another reason for organizing new spectacular terrorist attacks (as in Spain or in Middle East). And now what?
To see all that people risking their lives to vote moved me, but that is going to be an unstable democracy. What would happen when US, Italian, British and other foreign troops would leave the Country? What if an ultra-religious group would go to the power? Would Mr Bush be willing to inject another dose of his medicine?

Romy

[dissention]

so many losers on this forum.

And you have the nerve to call ChiliD rude? :confused:

[GateandGarden]

C'mon, you have to remember the song that rhymes "forgotten" with "Bin Laden." :eek:OMG Mikki, that is the best part! I laugh so hard when I hear that part! That is an awful song. The thing is, though, that I personally think it's sincere and has good intentions but just shows a complete lack of understanding about the war and American politics. I don't think Worley was out to make a buck; I think he really wanted to spread patriotism. I think he was just misguided. Just my opinion of it.

[GateandGarden]

Yeah, I see you're still in it trying to fight the good fight. Some battles are better left alone to conserve energy for the ones that matter. :nod:Well put. :nod:

[DrummerDeanna]

Yeah, I see you're still in it trying to fight the good fight. Some battles are better left alone to conserve energy for the ones that matter. :nod:

Yeah - I don't know why - it falls on deaf ears/eyes :shrug: - I really must locate that ignore button....

[SuzeQuze]

Bush wasn't right. Even If I believed that he honestly thought he was bringing democracy in Iraq (and I don't) his war killed directly and indirectly hundreds of thousands people, pushed a country already in desperate conditions in a humanitarian tragedy, with no food, no medicines, no water, caused a civil war, created a brand new Iraqi branch for Al Queida, and gave to Osama Bin Laden's followers another reason for organizing new spectacular terrorist attacks (as in Spain or in Middle East). And now what?
To see all that people risking their lives to vote moved me, but that is going to be an unstable democracy. What would happen when US, Italian, British and other foreign troops would leave the Country? What if an ultra-religious group would go to the power? Would Mr Bush be willing to inject another dose of his medicine?

Romy

Check out Arianna's blog today:

http://www.ariannaonline.com/columns/column.php?id=757

[amber]

Check out Arianna's blog today:

http://www.ariannaonline.com/columns/column.php?id=757
Thanks for posting! Informative.
She really, really impressed me during the Cal gov. debates. :nod:

[ShangriLaTroubl]

I've always been so baffled with this "spreading democracy around the world" thing that has been coming up lately..of course we all know when Bush presented this war it had nothing to do with that....but he had to come up with a nice catch phrase...

"Spreading democracy around the world..." does that mean that we will turn in to Hitler II and bomb every country that does not believe the same way we do ? It's ludacris... So what about our allies who do not have democracies? Will we attack them? Will we attack Saudi Arabia? Will we attack China as well? What gives here? And WHY WHY WHY are people buying this crap??

I never thought I'd see the day when Bush supporters tout his illegitimate policies by using his own quotes lol....I was discussing the war at college the other day with someone and I said "well why do you agree with this war?" and he said "i agree with spreading democracy around the world." Hhaha... I said "was that your stance before the war ever began, before it was spoken of, did you tell people 'you know I think we should spread democracy around the world' ?" and of course no, when Bush and his admin. started talking this stuff up, is where he first got it, and first started "believing in it." He didn't care less about the Iraqi people in 1999

Chris

[SuzeQuze]

Thanks for posting! Informative.
She really, really impressed me during the Cal gov. debates. :nod:

As we say here in Boston, she's wicked smaht. She's very well informed and I hope I remember to check her blog more often. She will be speaking on Majority Report. You can stream on airamericaradio.com.

[The Tower]

"Spreading democracy around the world..." does that mean that we will turn in to Hitler II and bomb every country that does not believe the same way we do ? It's ludacris... So what about our allies who do not have democracies? Will we attack them? Will we attack Saudi Arabia? Will we attack China as well? What gives here? And WHY WHY WHY are people buying this crap??

It is SO pathetic. They had a whole big deal about this a coupla days ago on NPR's "To The Point" (I LOVE/WORSHIP Warren Olney!!!).

This administration is soooooo full of ****. Hello!!! What about Myanmar?? What about Zimbabwe??? What about ****ing Uzbekistan??? It's okay for their government to boil people alive as long as the people being boiled are Muslim (literally). See for yourself! (warning: these pictures are graphic and are not for the faint of heart).

Uzbekistan (http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article3943.htm)


It is utter ****!

[gldstwmn]

So what about our allies who do not have democracies? Will we attack them? Will we attack Saudi Arabia? Will we attack China as well?


Maybe. Yes. No, not in the forseeable future.

[Moony]

ROTMFLAO! :lol: :lol: :lol: *gigglicious*seriously, I read it five times in a row and laughed every time*
L.
F.

:xoxo: :wavey:

I must admit, I crack myself up sometimes.

[irishgrl]

no..I just got through saying...if you let little ol' unimportant folks like me bother you...then its no wonder your party is falling apart and continue to loose elections.
1) you've changed your original statement, you originally said "little ol' me"
btw: you got THAT right. you also didnt have "your party is falling apart" on the original statement.
2) Dems dont lose elections, Republicans Steal them by manipulating the votes.
IE Florida and Ohio.

methinks you are now engaging in dishonest postage.

[irishgrl]

My my...you shouldn't let little all me get to you. No wonder you guys can never win an election if you let little ol' me bother you so much.... :rolleyes:

good thing I got to this before you did.........

[dissention]

It is SO pathetic. They had a whole big deal about this a coupla days ago on NPR's "To The Point" (I LOVE/WORSHIP Warren Olney!!!).

This administration is soooooo full of ****. Hello!!! What about Myanmar?? What about Zimbabwe??? What about ****ing Uzbekistan??? It's okay for their government to boil people alive as long as the people being boiled are Muslim (literally). See for yourself! (warning: these pictures are graphic and are not for the faint of heart).

Uzbekistan (http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article3943.htm)


It is utter ****!

It's not so much that it's because they're Muslims, it's that the United States sees nothing to gain from helping them. If they don't benefit, they want nothing to do with anything. Look at Sudan. We did nothing there to stop the genocide. Look at the dozen other police countries around the world other than Iraq. For Bush and his administration to even claim that we were invading Iraq to free the people is beyond absurd. What do you tell the citizens of the other police states like, as you pointed out, Uzbekistan? That you're sorry you can't help them because they don't have enough oil or because helping them couldn't have won you the election? It's sick.

[SuzeQuze]

It's not so much that it's because they're Muslims, it's that the United States sees nothing to gain from helping them. If they don't benefit, they want nothing to do with anything. Look at Sudan. We did nothing there to stop the genocide. Look at the dozen other police countries around the world other than Iraq. For Bush and his administration to even claim that we were invading Iraq to free the people is beyond absurd. What do you tell the citizens of the other police states like, as you pointed out, Uzbekistan? That you're sorry you can't help them because they don't have enough oil or because helping them couldn't have won you the election? It's sick.

Exactly, we go where our "interests" lie, and they lie with money, all cuddled up in bed with it.

Could someone tell me WTF was up with the purple finger thing? I keep hearing about purple fingers. Why have they desecrated my favorite color???? And the staged Iraqi voter/Mom of dead soldier moment really makes me ill. No doubt their affection for each other is genuine but they were planted. :distress:

[SuzeQuze]

Exactly, we go where our "interests" lie, and they lie with money, all cuddled up in bed with it.

Could someone tell me WTF was up with the purple finger thing? I keep hearing about purple fingers. Why have they desecrated my favorite color???? And the staged Iraqi voter/Mom of dead soldier moment really makes me ill. No doubt their affection for each other is genuine but they were planted. :distress:

They hijacked the purple finger from the ink Iraqis had on their hands after voting on Sun. Sometimes I wonder why I want to be informed. :(

[estranged4life]

They hijacked the purple finger from the ink Iraqis had on their hands after voting on Sun. Sometimes I wonder why I want to be informed. :(

the bloody red middle finger the US citizens are now holding up represent those who felt they were f**ked over in this past election? :shrug:

I think it does :nod: :laugh:

[SuzeQuze]

the bloody red middle finger the US citizens are now holding up represent those who felt they were f**ked over in this past election? :shrug:

I think it does :nod: :laugh:

Hey good one (covers middle finger with red magic marker). :laugh:

BASTARDS.

[ShangriLaTroubl]

I just also want to say, much to the disbelief of many smiling republicans this election I'm sure--the democratic party is nowhere near "falling apart" as some would have us believe.

It all goes in cycles...From the mid-1830s to the Civil War, the Democrats were the nation's majority party, usually controlling Congress, the presidency, and many state offices. Then of course as you all know the party hit kind of a disruption in about 1855-ish. Then the democrats rebound after the Civil War ...Of course it's always been interesting to me the strong southern support and background the Democratic Party has always held (until now of course.) We saw democratic party renewed after the depression...The democratic administration of FDR proved willing to use national power to confront depression conditions.. Of course the democrats in that time were rarely attractive to american blacks, because of the party's earlier pro-South type stance. Roosevelt interestingly became kind of an object of devotion to blacks... In my opinion this all completed the whole transformation of the party...
As its black constituencies increased in size into the 1960s and their leaders assumed positions of political power, Democratic presidents, from John F. Kennedy to Lyndon B. Johnson, tried to meet the needs of blacks through federal programs. Of course as you all know this transformation of the party did not come without controversy...Southern Democrats did not like this change very much...and of course most made their way out of the party fast..

Of course after 69 it really in my opinion took Bill Clinton to bring the party back to the top...to bring the party back in people's minds....His successes of course have mostly all been overturned since the year 2000, but I see a rebound in the future....In a way I pretty much knew the country needed 8 years of Bush to really get sick of him, to really see how much bad he could do...I actually heard "supporters" of him, some friends of mine say "Well I haven't been real impressed with Bush, but I believe he deserves another four years to prove himself, and fix the mistakes he's made..." Well America you have him for four years, unless something crazy happens and he resigns...which would NEVER happen no matter what....in 2006 Democrats will increase their numbers in the Senate, and in 2008 win the presidency....they've done their soul searching, and what they found in my opinion was that they just need to be themselves...if they do that they will survive

Chris

[ShangriLaTroubl]

Think democrats are a dying party? I also forgot to mention what we all know..that a DEMOCRAT won the popular vote in the year 2000.....and a liberal Democrat from MA. lost the popular vote by only some 3,000,000 votes...While George Bush may have won the most votes by any presidential candidate in history, I don't think it should be left unsaid that John Kerry won the 2nd most votes in history...

It's also important to note that President Bush received the most votes against him than did any other candidate in US history and his margin of victory was the smallest for a winner since Jimmy Carter...

To hear people talk you would think the Democratic party only got 12% of the popular vote this year or something...You wouldnt think that democrats actually won control of the Senate in 2001, only 3 years ago...In 1998, Democrats became the first party controlling the White House to gain seats in Congress during the sixth year of a president's term since 1822.


Turnout was higher this year....but 58,000,000 americans voting for a democrat does not put the party at the brink of death

Chris