economy on the rise

[strandinthewind]

Originally Posted by dissention

Exactly. yet you put all your faith into voodoo economics and claim it works. And I'm in the camp that believes it doesn't.

But, you offer no other explanation for where the money that is driving the current economic recovery is coming from. You just dismiss the clear effect of the tax cuts. That is not winning an argument - that is just attacking without proof, a hallmark trait of the far left and far right I might add

[dissention]

Originally Posted by gldstwmn

Economists are predicting that this little spark we have seen lately will go out by the third quarter this year.

Of course it will, they've been predicting that since November of last year.

Most of the $200 billion in tax cuts was distributed in the first six months of this year. What happens once those little tax refund checks run their course? There's going to be quite the windfall. There are going to be two fiscal drops for '05 and '06, which the Congressional Budget Office has been predicting based on the tax cuts and the income the tax cuts will generate. What does that prove? Tax cuts are band-aids, if anything. They have no lasting effect and once they run their course, the economy is going to go down once again. And they only a growth effect on the economy temporarily if the amount people spend multiplies ten times. Which, I submit, it hasn't.

[dissention]

Originally Posted by strandinthewind

But, you offer no other explanation for where the money that is driving the current economic recovery is coming from. You just dismiss the clear effect of the tax cuts. That is not winning an argument - that is just attacking without proof, a hallmark trait of the far left and far right I might add

Borrowed money, Jason.

[dissention]

Originally Posted by gldstwmn

I follow the markets and economic reports closely every day. Perhaps I should tell you to go read some law books. Ciao!

Ouch!

[strandinthewind]

Originally Posted by dissention

Of course it will, they've been predicting that since November of last year.

Most of the $200 billion in tax cuts was distributed in the first six months of this year. What happens once those little tax refund checks run their course? There's going to be quite the windfall. There are going to be two fiscal drops for '05 and '06, which the Congressional Budget Office has been predicting based on the tax cuts and the income the tax cuts will generate. What does that prove? Tax cuts are band-aids, if anything. They have no lasting effect and once they run their course, the economy is going to go down once again. And they only a growth effect on the economy temporarily if the amount people spend multiplies ten times. Which, I submit, it hasn't.

Well, only time will tell. AND - you are looking at this issue from the point that the tax cuts have helped and that is it. The leading economic indicators show manufacturing is up and jobs are being created. This adds or at least continues the new money supply and is a direct effect of the tax cuts, i.e. people spent money - the factories need to produce more - they hire more - more people have money to spend, etc. In the end and again, only time will tell, but most indicators show we are on the road to recovery. Even Kerry's advisor admits that. I mean if we were not on the road to recovery, theat is what they would be screaming at the top of their lungs. They cannot say this and not be called on it. Som, they are saying people are being hired (e.g. jobs are being created), but at less pay, and then are urging people to look past that and jusge W by his last three years, which did not contain economic growth. That is rank spin

[strandinthewind]

Originally Posted by dissention

Borrowed money, Jason.

Prove it. You cannot and you know it. Moreover, please show me where credit card and other loan companies have loaned ThAT much money and that money is being spent. You cannot. There is not that much money to be lent and you know it. Come on and just admit it, the tax cuts have helped the economy. You are not a bad liberal if you admit that. It is just stating the facts. I mean, I readily concede that tax cuts were not the be all and end all of the economic recovery. I am just saying they were one of many factors that helped. But, the far left cannot state the truth no matter how apparent

[dissention]

Originally Posted by strandinthewind

Well, only time will tell. AND - you are looking at this issue from the point that the tax cuts have helped and that is it. The leading economic indicators show manufacturing is up and jobs are being created. This adds or at least continues the new money supply and is a direct effect of the tax cuts, i.e. people spent money - the factories need to produce more - they hire more - more people have money to spend, etc. In the end and again, only time will tell, but most indicators show we are on the road to recovery. Even Kerry's advisor admits that. I mean if we were not on the road to recovery, theat is what they would be screaming at the top of their lungs. They cannot say this and not be called on it. Som, they are saying people are being hired (e.g. jobs are being created), but at less pay, and then are urging people to look past that and jusge W by his last three years, which did not contain economic growth. That is rank spin.

That's what you don't understand, my man. I'm not disputing that that the money people get from these ridiculous cuts doesn't go into the economy, it does to some degree, although not as much as you'd have people believe. What I am disputing is that these tax cuts and the money generated from them are going to have any lasting impressions. I submit they will not and I will be proven correct over the next few years. Tax cuts are band-aids, not stitches.

[strandinthewind]

Originally Posted by dissention

That's what you don't understand, my man. I'm not disputing that that the money people get from these ridiculous cuts doesn't go into the economy, it does to some degree, although not as much as you'd have people believe. What I am disputing is that these tax cuts and the money generated from them are going to have any lasting impressions. I submit they will not and I will be proven correct over the next few years. Tax cuts are band-aids, not stitches.

I am not hving anyone believe anything I have cited many articles supporting what I am saying. All you can do is pooh pooh the idea without any support and then assert far left rhetoric, which equally is unsupported and directly contradcited by economic theory. Again, if you are correct, why is the ecnomy recovering Perhaps it will fail, who knows, the current indicators suggest it will not - if we can control the deficit, which W cannot do given his liberal spending. Also, the world exists in a global economy now. The actions of the US alone and within the US are not as dispositive as they once were - so there is that factor as well. In any event, I certainly hope the current indicators are correct and that the manufacturing sector is improving because economic theory and in general history dictates that is what will sustain the economy.

[dissention]

Originally Posted by strandinthewind

I am not hving anyone believe anything I have cited many articles supporting what I am saying. All you can do is pooh pooh the idea without any support and then assert far left rhetoric, which equally is unsupported and directly contradcited by economic theory. Again, if you are correct, why is the ecnomy recovering Perhaps it will fail, who knows, the current indicators suggest it will not - if we can control the deficit, which W cannot do given his liberal spending. Also, the world exists in a global economy now. The actions of the US alone and within the US are not as dispositive as they once were - so there is that factor as well. In any event, I certainly hope the current indicators are correct and that the manufacturing sector is improving because economic theory and in general history dictates that is what will sustain the economy.

Methinks you should really read what the Congressional Budget Office has been saying and continues to say. You don't seem to comprehend it.

[strandinthewind]

Originally Posted by dissention

Methinks you should really read what the Congressional Budget Office has been saying and continues to say. You don't seem to comprehend it.

LOL - cut and paste it. And then juxtapose it with the June and other numbers indicating economic growth. That way we will have it all in the open. Again, most economic indicators, including Greenspan and his posse, state the economy is recovering and that the largest danger to that recovery is the huge federal deficit. But, you just cannot admit that. Insted, it is all deny deny deny and W is a meanie

[dissention]

Originally Posted by strandinthewind

LOL - cut and paste it. And then juxtapose it with the June and other numbers indicating economic growth. That way we will have it all in the open. Again, most economic indicators, including Greenspan and his posse, state the economy is recovering and that the largest danger to that recovery is the huge federal deficit. But, you just cannot admit that. Insted, it is all deny deny deny and W is a meanie

Bite my ass, babe.

I'll post it later tonight, I can't now because this computer is slower than Shrub at a press conference. Or maybe Chris could beat me to it.

[strandinthewind]

Yet another article:

http://money.cnn.com/2004/06/16/news...ex.htm?cnn=yes

Industrial production jumps in May

Output at factories, mines and utilities posts its biggest gain in almost six years, Fed reports.
June 16, 2004: 9:31 AM EDT

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities surged in May, posting its biggest gain in almost six years, the Federal Reserve reported Wednesday.

The Fed said industrial production rose a larger-than-expected 1.1 percent in May after a 0.8 percent gain in April. The May increase was the biggest since a 2.0 percent rise in August 1998.

While the Fed said "unseasonably warm weather" caused output at utilities to surge, the gain in overall production was broad-based and reflected the continued revival in the U.S. factory sector, which began declining ahead of the 2001 recession.

Companies also operated at a faster rate in May, at 77.8 percent of full capacity, up from April's revised 77.1 percent capacity use rate and the highest pace since May 2001.

Wall Street had been expecting a smaller rise of about 0.8 percent, and capacity use to rise to 77.5.

[strandinthewind]

and another:

http://money.cnn.com/2004/05/04/news...actory_orders/

Factory orders soar 4.3%

March orders come in above estimates and four times the gain in February.
May 4, 2004: 1:09 PM EDT
By Andrew Stein, CNN/Money staff writer

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Orders received by U.S. factories jumped in March, the government reported Tuesday, with the third gain in four months coming in well ahead of estimates -- another sign the beleaguered manufacturing sector may be finally regaining its footing.

Factory orders rose 4.3 percent in March, after a revised reading of 1.1 percent gain in February, the Commerce Department reported. Economists expected a reading of 2.4 percent, according to Briefing.com.

"The trend in orders is actually accelerating," said Conrad DeQuadros, senior economist with Bear Stearns. "It shows manufacturing in on firm footing in terms of inventories and eventually hiring."

Total orders of manufactured goods rose $14.9 billion in March to $360.7 billion, and new orders excluding defense rose 4.6 percent to $349.9 billion, up from $334.5 billion in February.

Following the report, stocks moved higher and bond prices moved little. However, stocks turned lower in later trading.

The reading on the manufacturing sector adds to a slew of strong economic reports from the retail, employment, and purchasing sectors. All the reports have contributed to the notion that the Federal Reserve will have to raise interest rates to stave off inflation as the economy continues to recover.

The Fed was meeting Tuesday and was slated to release its decision on rates around 2:15 p.m. ET. Most economists believe the central bank will leave rates at the 46-year low of 1 percent, but change its accompanying language on the health of the economy.

"The release of the factory orders probably won't change the Fed's decision," said Anthony Crescenzi, chief bond market strategist with Miller, Tabak & Co. "The report reinforces that the manufacturing sector is recovering."

Crescenzi added that the Fed will look at some of the nuances of the report, such as the inventory-to-shipment ratio, which measures demand.

That measure fell to 1.23 in March from 1.27 in February as shipments rose 3.8 percent, or $13.1 billion, to $361.3 billion, the largest increase since the department began tracking the figure in 1992.

Orders for durable goods, meant to last three years or more, notched its sixth gain in the past seven months, up 5 percent to $195.8 billion, led by a 4.1 percent gain in transportation orders.

The strong gains across the manufacturing sector led to only a slight 0.3 percent rise in inventories as continuing demand kept stockpiles in check.

The relatively low levels of inventories will eventually lead to a hiring pickup in some areas of the manufacturing sector, the hardest hit during last recession, according to Bear Stearns' DeQuadros.

"The manufacturing job cycle is tied pretty closely to the inventory cycle," he said. "We think the April jobs report will show the first rise in manufacturing in 40 months."

Indeed, the April figures from the Institute of Supply Management released Monday also pointed to an increase inmanufacturing hiring, as its employment index increased to 57.8 from 57.0.

That marked the strongest employment reading for that part of the index since December of 1987. It marks the sixth straight month of positive employment outlook, following 37 straight months that saw a contraction of employment.

[dissention]

Just to lighten the hostile mood until I can blow Jason's arguments out of the water:

[strandinthewind]

and another:

http://www.usatoday.com/money/econom...nt-april_x.htm

Manufacturing sector creating more jobs at last
By Sue Kirchhoff, USA TODAY

WASHINGTON — After more than three years of dramatic decline, the U.S. manufacturing sector is creating jobs again — improving the economic outlook.
The Labor Department said Friday that the nation's factories added 21,000 jobs in April. It revised earlier reports to show a 16,000 gain in February and March, rather than the loss reported. Manufacturing shed nearly 3 million jobs from August 2000 to January 2004. (Related story: Waiting game for higher rates could end in June)

Economists attributed the long-awaited pickup to a better economy; a decline in the value of the dollar against other currencies, making U.S. exports less expensive; and a probable slowdown in productivity, or output per worker.

"We hired a new person (Thursday)," says Val Zanchuk, president of Graphicast in Jaffrey, N.H., which makes parts for machinery — one of the areas of factory growth.

Zanchuk, who has increased his staff to 35 from 27, started noticing a pickup nine months ago. "We're seeing customers we haven't seen for two or three years," he says.

President Bush, campaigning in the Midwest Friday, hailed the numbers as proof his economic policies were working. Union officials called the gains a pittance compared with earlier job losses and warned that U.S. workers were still vulnerable to foreign competition. Economists said that while the sector was improving, not all lost jobs will return.

"Positions lost to the larger forces of globalization tend not to recover," says Richard DeKaser, chief economist at National City.

Overall, the Labor Department said U.S. businesses created 288,000 jobs in April, far above economists' forecasts. It revised March's strong job gain up 29,000 to 337,000. Wages rose at a more rapid 2.2% year-over-year rate.

Stresses remain. Despite rising profit, for example, Dow Chemical plans to cut 3,000 jobs this year.

There are still more willing workers than available jobs. Steve Demos, president of White Wave in Boulder, Colo., which produces soy milk under the Silk brand name, receives 100 to 300 résumés for job openings.

The firm is paying more for soy, but rising dairy prices could make its products more competitive.

"We're definitely a magnet right now for a progressive type of employment," Demos says.

Federal tax breaks for capital spending are helping some firms, as is consumer spending. Scott Peterson, senior vice president of human resources at Select Comfort, a Minneapolis-based mattress maker, says the firm boosted its workforce 25% last year and sees a 15% to 20% increase this year.

"It's real," says A.D. "Pete" Correll, CEO of Atlanta-based Georgia-Pacific. "We're walking around with a smile on our faces for the first time in a long time."