economy on the rise

[gldstwmn]

[QUOTE=strandinthewind] On the other hand, spending is up and showing record growth - as indicated by the last two economic reports. [QUOTE]

It's not. I don't know where you're getting that info. Consumer spending is down.

[strandinthewind]

Originally Posted by gldstwmn

Economists are predicting that this little spark we have seen lately will go out by the third quarter this year.

I certainly hope not. My fear is there will be a recovery, which clearly is happening now. However, the recovery will not be enough to pay the HUGE deficit we currently have.

BTW - this "little spark" is the largest in 20 years or something like that

[gldstwmn]

Originally Posted by strandinthewind

and once again I ask - where is the money coming from that is driving this recovery if not from the horrific tax cuts?

Low interest rates. Borrowing money is cheap.

[gldstwmn]

Originally Posted by strandinthewind

While that is true, the market had been on shaky ground way before that - trust me because I speak on a personal level there - can you say OUCH!!!! Moreover, if W is so pro big business, big oil, etc. and anti environment (environmental restraints cost corps. $$$$), etc., why would the stock market be so opposed to him?

Lack of confindence. A large part of the equitites are owned by other countries as well.

[strandinthewind]

Here are some articles on the economy:

http://www.epinet.org/content.cfm/we...spict_20040604

http://money.cnn.com/2004/01/02/news/economy/ism/

http://money.cnn.com/2004/04/02/news.../jobs/?cnn=yes

http://www.gop.com/news/read.aspx?ID=4147 (could not resist this one )

[gldstwmn]

Originally Posted by strandinthewind

I certainly hope not. My fear is there will be a recovery, which clearly is happening now. However, the recovery will not be enough to pay the HUGE deficit we currently have.

BTW - this "little spark" is the largest in 20 years or something like that

I don't know what numbers you're referring to.

[gldstwmn]

Originally Posted by strandinthewind

Here are some articles on the economy:

http://www.epinet.org/content.cfm/we...spict_20040604

http://money.cnn.com/2004/01/02/news/economy/ism/

http://money.cnn.com/2004/04/02/news.../jobs/?cnn=yes

http://www.gop.com/news/read.aspx?ID=4147 (could not resist this one )

I follow the markets and economic reports closely every day. Perhaps I should tell you to go read some law books. Ciao!

[strandinthewind]

Originally Posted by gldstwmn

Lack of confindence. A large part of the equitites are owned by other countries as well.

Do you have any objective data to support this? Because I submit the market was already on it way down long before that and that fall, which was one of many, was already in the works. Granted, the election turmoil allegedly caused havoc on the market.

BTW - other countries did not immediately hate W and even if they did, that does not obviate foreign investors' interest in a big business American President

Here is an article about the fall of the stock market in 2000

http://www.smartmoney.com/bn/index.c...20001121054920

Here is a chart of the DJIA for the last five years

http://money.cnn.com/quote/quote.htm...uf=0&x=31&y=10

Here are other random articles on this:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp...nguage=printer

http://money.cnn.com/2004/01/22/news/economy/nber/

http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/...001215_440.htm

Again, to me the reason the market fell was because of the corp. fraud in the 90's as well as the IPO fever dance ( ) that inflated stock prices FAR above any sustainable level as stock prices are generally measures (future earning, etc. ).

[strandinthewind]

Originally Posted by gldstwmn

I follow the markets and economic reports closely every day. Perhaps I should tell you to go read some law books. Ciao!

Silly rabbit I know that All I am saying is the market was tanking before W took office and to blame it all on a vote of no confidence for Mr. Big Business himself just makes no sense to me.

[strandinthewind]

Originally Posted by gldstwmn

I don't know what numbers you're referring to.

I just cited a bunch of articles that go into it.

But here is another:

http://money.cnn.com/2003/10/30/news...y/gdp/?cnn=yes

In the end, I think we are moving away from a housing/mortgage driven recovery (although those remain very strong) and are moving into a personal spending recovery. But, only time will tell.

edit: and another (from the nytimes)

U.S. Consumer Confidence Rebounds in June
By REUTERS

Published: June 15, 2004


Filed at 11:01 a.m. ET

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. consumer sentiment brightened in early June as an improving jobs market offset the effect of high gas prices, the instability in Iraq and higher interest rates, analysts said on Tuesday.

The University of Michigan's preliminary survey of consumer confidence for June showed its sentiment index rose to 95.2 from a final reading of 90.2 in May, according to sources who saw the subscription-only report, breaking a two-month decline.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a fall to 89.9 as record-high gasoline prices and geopolitical concerns were expected to have offset some of the optimism over the improvement in the labor market.

``The data was a bit of a surprise. One, because it was stronger than expected and two, because it was stronger than the (Investors Business Daily) data, which it seems to track and perhaps inconsistent with the overall environment,'' said Alan Ruskin, research director at 4CAST Ltd in New York.

``We've been looking at gas prices increasing, interest rates on the rise and equities tracking sideways, and the political situation in Iraq far from calm. So none of that bodes particularly well for consumer expectations but nonetheless we have seen an increase,'' he said.

The expectations index rose to 86.9 in June from 81.6 in May, most likely in line with the dramatic pick-up in the jobs market over the past few months, while the current conditions component rose to 108.1 from 103.6, its best since January.

``The rebound in hiring over the past three months is finally affecting consumer attitudes about the economy. However, the improvement in sentiment has been relatively sluggish,'' said Steven Wood, economist at Insight Economics.

``Although sentiment remains well below its levels of the late 1990's, further job gains will push it higher,'' he said.

Other measures of confidence, which some analysts use as a proxy to determine future spending patterns, had shown a marked decline in sentiment as high energy prices squeezed household budgets.

ABC News and Money Magazine said last week its Consumer Comfort Index fell for the third week in a row, as both gasoline and food prices continued to rise.

Meanwhile, U.S. credit counselor Cambridge Credit Counseling recently reported that over half of the 1,000 adults it surveyed in late May said they believed gas prices would force them to make sacrifices or curb spending.

[strandinthewind]

Originally Posted by gldstwmn

Low interest rates. Borrowing money is cheap.

I know, but you still have to qualify for it and that usually entails having a job. Again, I think it is many factors, but I think to say the tax cuts have not favorably effected the economy is incorrect.

[strandinthewind]

OMG - in my research, I found this - you HAVE to read it. This guy and that a$$$ Sean Hannity totally go at it:

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,122264,00.html

[gldstwmn]

[QUOTE=strandinthewind]I know, but you still have to qualify for it and that usually entails having a job. [QUOTE]

Not necessarily.

[dissention]

Originally Posted by strandinthewind

[Dissention] Voodoo economics do not work, IMO. But, to be fair and because I have a soft spot for ya, there are no conclusive studies that prove they do or they don't. For every study or analysis that says it does, there's another out there that says it doesn't.

http://www.ledge.fleetwoodmac.net/sh...ghlight=voodoo

Exactly. yet you put all your faith into voodoo economics and claim it works. And I'm in the camp that believes it doesn't.

[strandinthewind]

[QUOTE=gldstwmn][QUOTE=strandinthewind]I know, but you still have to qualify for it and that usually entails having a job.

Not necessarily.

Well, there are the credit card companies that loan money without a job and I suppose some mortgages can be obtained with no positive cash flow (reverse mortgages, etc.) - but I submit those cannot add enough money to the economy to support this large of an increase. I think people are geting jobs and paying less taxes, which equals more money in the economy. I mean that is not just me saying that, that is what those articles and many economists and the current numbers are in general saying. AND - that is a good thing IMO. I am happy people are getting jobs and spending more money. I hope it lasts because we have a HUGE deficit to pay because of W and his liberal spending.