Can Stevie break the trend?

[Christopher]

Originally Posted by TrueFaith77

I agree. I feel the same way about filmmakers.

As for Stevie breaking "the trend": she only sells to her fanbase at this point.

She would need crossover appeal, which means she needs a hit single.

Not. Going. To. Happen.

Bingo. As much as I like Secret Love, and love that it recalls her 80's work & also believe it's her best single since Rooms On Fire or maybe TTM, mostly due to its production and her vocal not necessarily the song. However it is not the 80's anymore! Had this song come out in the 80's during RAL or OSOTM it probably would have been a big hit.

I'm positive there are better songs on IYD than this. Stevie and WBR played their safe card again. While Stevie probably wanted to release a song that she solely wrote because *bonus* when she performs this on TV promo appearances>>she gets additional royalty payments! not to mention when it sees the light on the next repackaged greatest hits compilation. (which is why I also suspect she prefers to perform her self-penned hits like Stand Back, Rhiannon & Landslide again and again on TV as opposed to something like TTM.)

If Stevie goes gold with IYD (fingers crossed & stars align) within a year it will be considered a big home run for her! I think we will be able to better discern what kind of opening week #'s IYD will do @ a month before the release based on what kind of a pre-promotion plans they unveil. Right now I optimistically expect 10>25K units to sell in it's 1st week. (thats down from 25>50K I estimated months ago before I heard the 1st single and its generated response). So If that's the case, It will be a sloooow long climb to cross the 500K threshold. But Hey, more importantly, at least to those of us that care a lot, probably too much, we will have brand spanking new Stevie Nicks music to devour. Finally!!!

[GoldDustOrphan]

Heart's "Red Velvet Car" moved about 60,000 copies.

The band's previous album "Jupiter's Darling" sold 100,000 copies, but the band's then label Sovereign filed bankruptcy and still owes Heart money.

"Secret Love" just went to radio for ads, so I'm watching mediabase, etc.

[Jondalar]

Originally Posted by Christopher

Bingo. As much as I like Secret Love, and love that it recalls her 80's work & also believe it's her best single since Rooms On Fire or maybe TTM, mostly due to its production and her vocal not necessarily the song. However it is not the 80's anymore! Had this song come out in the 80's during RAL or OSOTM it probably would have been a big hit.

I'm positive there are better songs on IYD than this. Stevie and WBR played their safe card again. While Stevie probably wanted to release a song that she solely wrote because *bonus* when she performs this on TV promo appearances>>she gets additional royalty payments! not to mention when it sees the light on the next repackaged greatest hits compilation. (which is why I also suspect she prefers to perform her self-penned hits like Stand Back, Rhiannon & Landslide again and again on TV as opposed to something like TTM.)

If Stevie goes gold with IYD (fingers crossed & stars align) within a year it will be considered a big home run for her! I think we will be able to better discern what kind of opening week #'s IYD will do @ a month before the release based on what kind of a pre-promotion plans they unveil. Right now I optimistically expect 10>25K units to sell in it's 1st week. (thats down from 25>50K I estimated months ago before I heard the 1st single and its generated response). So If that's the case, It will be a sloooow long climb to cross the 500K threshold. But Hey, more importantly, at least to those of us that care a lot, probably too much, we will have brand spanking new Stevie Nicks music to devour. Finally!!!

She better do better than that or she might never see gold. TISL basically stopped selling period. It has stayed at the same number for almost 10 years.

[louielouie2000]

Originally Posted by GoldDustOrphan

Heart's "Red Velvet Car" moved about 60,000 copies.

The band's previous album "Jupiter's Darling" sold 100,000 copies, but the band's then label Sovereign filed bankruptcy and still owes Heart money.

"Secret Love" just went to radio for ads, so I'm watching mediabase, etc.

I think that's a pretty good bellwether for how In Your Dreams will do. I'd even argue Heart has better name recognition than Stevie does. They've also sold several times the albums Stevie has in her solo career. If Heart's latest album didn't even go Gold, and only hit #10 on the album charts, Stevie is destined to do even more poorly.

[HejiraNYC]

Originally Posted by louielouie2000

I think that's a pretty good bellwether for how In Your Dreams will do. I'd even argue Heart has better name recognition than Stevie does. They've also sold several times the albums Stevie has in her solo career. If Heart's latest album didn't even go Gold, and only hit #10 on the album charts, Stevie is destined to do even more poorly.

Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Yes, Heart has sold more albums than solo Stevie, but they've also released twice as many titles over a longer time span, yet Heart has not had a gold or platinum album in almost twenty years. And in terms of the venues that they play, Stevie is still playing to much larger audiences solo and larger still for FM. Do you think a Rod Stewart-Heart billing would have played two nights at Madison Square Garden? Sure, Heart has their diehard audience, but over the years- through changing sounds, changing personas, changing lineups, changing labels, there's been a huge amount of attrition. And as much as I hate to say it, I suspect a huge chunk of their fanbase balked at Ann Wilson's appearance (there's an inverse correlation between Heart's album sales and Ann's weight).

As a more casual Heart fan, their most recent album barely blipped on my radar. In fact, the only reason I even knew about their new album was because of some chatter on the Ledge. To the mainstream world at large... it was like a tree falling in the forest. So for all this talk about Heart using social online media and new channels for promoting their material, I think it all kinda flopped. Heart's album was good (not fantastic), and it was true to who they were, but it was far, far from earthshattering or novel. There is no question in my mind that Stevie's album will break new ground for her artistically and that both casual fans and fans of FM will take notice. This isn't going to be a run-of-the-mill Stevie album (as if such a thing could even exist).

[GoldDustOrphan]

Heart has sold roughly twice the number of albums that Stevie has as a solo artist, but Stevie's role in FM's album and ticket sales has to be figured into her total as well.

Just looking at numbers, Heart's career spins at radio are a fraction of Stevie's. The combined spins of Dreams, Landslide and Stand Back are greater than all of Heart's recurrent tracks combined. Stevie's overall consumer and listener impressions simply crushes Heart's.

Luckily for Stevie, there doesn't appear to be any competition on May 3 and she is likely to debut in the top 3 even if her first week sales mirror Heart's first week sales of "Red Velvet Car," which it should.

[Christopher]

Originally Posted by Jondalar

She better do better than that or she might never see gold. TISL basically stopped selling period. It has stayed at the same number for almost 10 years.

I think the goal should be for IYD to shift 40-50K in it's 1st week. That would be pretty awesome in this day and age & considering Stevie's age and absence from new music market in over 8 years. But I just don't see it happening... yet. However it's still too soon to gauge, We're still almost 3 months out and there hasn't been any major promotion yet, I'm not counting the Ellen appearance, cause you barely even heard Ellen say Stevie's new album is out in May over the audience applause and credits rolling. The press just started with the new RS article about her arena dates with Rod, including a mention of her record & review of Secret Love.

I sure hope Stevie does do some music related public appearances before the tour. A presenter at the Grammy's would be incredible, but I just don't think it's Stevie's cup of tea. She more apt to do the radio appearance route plus the sporadic newspaper interview while she's on the road w. Rod in major markets. Also don't forget the radio industry gig she booked starting next friday (Sunset Sessions) which is right up Stevie's arsenal of usual promotion tricks. Stevies been accustomed to cooing up to radio industry insiders since the beginning of her career. Unfortunately less formats play her music anymore.

Originally Posted by louielouie2000

I think that's a pretty good bellwether for how In Your Dreams will do. I'd even argue Heart has better name recognition than Stevie does. They've also sold several times the albums Stevie has in her solo career. If Heart's latest album didn't even go Gold, and only hit #10 on the album charts, Stevie is destined to do even more poorly.

IDK, While you argue that Heart has more name recognition than Stevie (though I don't agree with that statement), I would argue that Stevie has more brand recognition. Yes, Heart since the beginning of their career til' now may have sold more than Stevie's solo output. But Heart does not have the same overall cache that Stevie Nicks has. You cannot exclude Fleetwood Mac in that regard, in addition to Stevies solo success. It's not even close. Remember it's Stevie Nicks who is still touring arenas with FM or with Rod Stewart. It's also important to remember that Stevie is relevant today by way of still inspiring a diverse group of current musicians ranging from Florence & The Machine, Bats For Lashes, Rilo Kiley...all the way to Miley Cyrus and Taylor Swift.

Stevie should easily sell double if not triple of Hearts last release. 250K is in her reach... I just don't know if 500K is.

[mitzo]

I really think Stevie has squandered her chances too often, she had a chance to be reborn after The Dance and dawdled 4 years to release TISL, SYW flopped at least in part because it had been 6 years since The Dance, and then she spent 7/8 years wandering around doing cover songs in casinos in a stale setlist and releasing nothing compelling, coasting on oldies. The new album may be good but the population of people who will be interested has dried up.

[APerfectLie]

Originally Posted by Christopher

IDK, While you argue that Heart has more name recognition than Stevie (though I don't agree with that statement), I would argue that Stevie has more brand recognition. Yes, Heart since the beginning of their career til' now may have sold more than Stevie's solo output. But Heart does not have the same overall cache that Stevie Nicks has. You cannot exclude Fleetwood Mac in that regard, in addition to Stevies solo success. It's not even close. Remember it's Stevie Nicks who is still touring arenas with FM or with Rod Stewart. It's also important to remember that Stevie is relevant today by way of still inspiring a diverse group of current musicians ranging from Florence & The Machine, Bats For Lashes, Rilo Kiley...all the way to Miley Cyrus and Taylor Swift.

Stevie should easily sell double if not triple of Hearts last release. 250K is in her reach... I just don't know if 500K is.

Exactly. I don't see how anyone thinks Heart will sell more albums than Stevie. Maybe in their two heydays, but Stevie has proven to be the long distance winner. Stevie (solo) has sold half the number of albums as Heart has in the United States. However, Heart released their first album 36 years ago and have released 13 studio albums. Stevie released her first solo album 30 years ago and has only released 6 albums. Also, TISL came out three years before Heart's Jupiter's Darling, and managed to sell 500,000 within the first month, whereas Jupiter's Darling only managed to sell 100,000 three years later. And then to comment about Heart's album being a flop? Really? By what standards? Album sales have been dropping and being that they have sold almost 60,000 when their last album only moved 100,000 isn't that shocking. Not to mention, Red Velvet Car was their first top ten album in 20 years and the highest debuting album of their career. It just blows my mind that people say Stevie will be lucky to sell 50-100k copies, which is only 10%-20% of what TISL did, yet Heart sells that much and their last album had a fifth of the sales that TISL had, but Red Velvet Car is a flop? A 40% drop in sales for Heart is a flop but a 80-90% drop in sales for Stevie is lucky? Whaaat? Will In Your Dreams be certified Gold by July 2011? It is highly unlikely. But will she have 250k sold by the end of 2011? Most likely. Will she have over 500k? Probably not, but it isn't impossible. Since she has been gone for so long, it is hard to predict the market. But with the right marketing and things such as this Rod Stewart tour, a release right before Mother's Day, and all this praise from the critics will help the sales dramatically.

[cristochango]

Originally Posted by mikebise

LOL! I was just gonna ask about Heart's flop album!

ALL the caterwauling on here about how ignorant and stupid Stevie is in her lack of online savvy-ness reached a fevered pitch when Heart was preparing to release their "acclaimed" "comeback" album, and Heart were doing hip/Now!/With It! Internet tactics. All that viral activity, leaking album tracks early... I can't even remember all the lists of how much smarter Heart were being than Stevie the Stegosaurus while building the online BUZZ among today's YOUTH, who ONLY get their information and opinions from YouTube. Today's Youth would surely be virally enticed into worshipping Heart and immediately adding the band to their shrines to Katy Perry and GaGa. Heart had tackled the Internet Beast!!!

L-O-F-ing-L!!!!!!!!!

I'll type your Replies for you: "Well! At least Heart tried! Stevie doesn't do anything!!!"

This made my day

[jkmaletic]

It seems most stations don't let you request songs anymore- especially ones that play new music.

[Nikolaj]

Being delusional has had such a negative spin put on it in this thread.
Delusion's reputation and the merits of delusion need to be rethought.
It comes in handy, when it's most needed, too.
I think she'll sell well, if the cd is excellent in a way that TISL and SYW just weren't, to my taste. 'In Your Dreams' is nothing to get all pragmatic about!

It's Stevie Frickin' Nicks- if she has the miracle of a killer song on it that just can't be dismissed- Stevie could be the comeback of the century.

Being hopeful isn't as fun as being delusional, but it works, sometimes.
Not caring about being right make both hope and delusion possible. So, I believe it's possible it could be both a great cd and a great-selling cd.
I know it's not 1985! I just don't care!~

[GoldDustOrphan]

In addition to SoundScan sales figures and radio airplay audience impressions measured by Nielsen BDS, Billboard also uses streaming activity data from various online music sources to determine its charts.

Click & stream "Secret Love" as much as you can and it will impact airplay charts, which can impact those decision-makers at traditional radio stations.

Record companies know that more people are exposed to new music via computers than by traditional radio stations.

[Christopher]

Originally Posted by GoldDustOrphan

In addition to SoundScan sales figures and radio airplay audience impressions measured by Nielsen BDS, Billboard also uses streaming activity data from various online music sources to determine its charts.

Click & stream "Secret Love" as much as you can and it will impact airplay charts, which can impact those decision-makers at traditional radio stations.

Record companies know that more people are exposed to new music via computers than by traditional radio stations.

The Itunes & Amazon clips or YouTube's "leaked" version? ...or both?

I know that the importance of anything going viral is closely watched by music industry insiders. Billboard magazine online even tracks viral music videos weekly. That's why I was hoping the 1st leak of Secret Love - Jan.13th on YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WpLprHBRaLM - would have notched more views than 42,106 after almost 4 weeks. If it had views in the 250-500K range that would probably be considered "viral" for something new by Stevie at this point.
Keep playing that link... even if you have to mute the volume.

[PenguinHead]

I think that Stevie's album will be a critical success musically, but sales-wise, perhaps respectively modest in sales. Much has been mentioned here about 1990's-established female singer-songwriters struggle to meet the sales figures they had in their hey-day.

Unfortunately, the entire world has changed since those days. So it's unreleasonable to expect sales of that level. Even the new artists today, though successful, are not ever going reach level of sales. In fact, there has been such a major shift, you can sell far less that a half-million and still top the charts!

Artists like Taylor Swift, Lady Gaga, and that Justin kid are flukes to a certain extent. The most creative element of their careers isn't in the music, but in the marketing. They are crafted to served to a certain demographic.

Stevie is in a different realm all together, generation-wise. She is now among an elder-elite group of artists ( ex: Tom Petty, Eric Clapton...and female singers I can't think of right now! lol). Her album will be successful, but not the way you traditionally think it will.

I'm not worried. Stevie will alway have a home(s), will never go hungry, and will always be able to maintain her fabulous lifestyle.