Hurricane watch issued for Florida Keys

[estranged4life]

our local weather just showed an image that was provided by UT that if Rita keeps her strength and stays on path with Galveston, The impact with Galveston would cause the city will no longer exist since it will be out in Gulf of Mexico completely flooded...

Galveston is protected by 17' seawall, The waves they're predicting will be over 50'.

If you have loved ones in/near Galveston tell them to not play the hero and stay to ride this storm out...They may not live through it.

Another thing that is now bothering me is that once Hurricane Rita has reached land and worked it's way North it will possibly stall over Oklahoma for 24-48 hours as a tropical depression...The weather casters are already predicting anywhere from 6"to 12" of rain, If not more....And severe flooding which hasnt been seen since 1986.

Not to mention the warm air from the tropical depression will meet with a cold front that is starting to head down from Kansas and will stall over Oklahoma on Friday...Warm air + cold air=tornadoes.

Man, this will be a trying next few days...Hope noone has to rely on FEMA

[gldstwmn]

Please stay safe all Texas Ledgies.

[strandinthewind]

Originally Posted by gldstwmn

Please stay safe all Texas Ledgies.

and get out of the coastal areas if you can!!!!!!!!!!!!!

This thing is predicted to remain a hurricane all the way to the eye moving over Dallas.

Fortunately, the Weather Channel guy was saying that because this became a Cat. 5 so quickly, there is a good chance it will burn out and be a Cat. 3 when it hits land. let's hope he is correct.

[estranged4life]

just saw a projected track of Rita, She is now turning North a bit....Taking a direct track towards Houston/Galveston with 165MPH substained winds.

[dissention]

Originally Posted by estranged4life

just saw a projected track of Rita, She is now turning North a bit....Taking a direct track towards Houston/Galveston with 165MPH substained winds.

This is going to be brutal. On CNN last night, they were saying that if the refineries are hit, be prepared for possibly paying $5 a gallon.

[estranged4life]

Originally Posted by dissention

This is going to be brutal. On CNN last night, they were saying that if the refineries are hit, be prepared for possibly paying $5 a gallon.

I remember saying that gas would go for $5 a gallon (One of the reasons why Deb is now working 12 hour shifts overnight 2-3 days a week instead of 8 hour shifts 5 days a week, to save on the mileage & gasoline)...

Seems that $5 a gallon may be a minimum price IMO.

Moral to the story: Don't f**k with Mother Nature, She can be a real PMSing bitch, Ask the Gulf States!!!

Brian "Mother Nature 2 Gulf Coast States 0" j.

ps-The Weather Channel stated Oklahoma can expect up to 24" of rain once Hurricane Rita reaches land and turns into a tropical depression that will stall over Oklahoma...."Ah the dire black times have finally arrived, Let the end begin"

[David]

Originally Posted by strandinthewind

Fortunately, the Weather Channel guy was saying that because this became a Cat. 5 so quickly, there is a good chance it will burn out and be a Cat. 3 when it hits land. let's hope he is correct.

What's the surface temperature of the water between the storm & the coast? That's the kicker.

[estranged4life]

Originally Posted by David

What's the surface temperature of the water between the storm & the coast? That's the kicker.

I saw last night the water temp was anywhere from 81-84, So Rita may gain some strength.

[Brwn_eyes0511]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh...l/221455.shtml

000
WTNT43 KNHC 221455
TCDAT3
HURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU SEP 22 2005

RITA APPEARS TO HAVE REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY DURING THE PAST
12 HOURS. HURRICANES TYPICALLY DO NOT MAINTAIN SUCH HIGH INTENSITY
FOR A LONG TIME. INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 145 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH
SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO...DUE TO EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES...AN OVERALL GRADUAL
WEAKENING TREND SHOULD TAKE PLACE. THIS WEAKENING TREND IS BASED ON
LOWER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK AND INCREASING
SHEAR. NEVERTHERELESS...RITA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A
DANGEROUS HURRICANE OF AT LEAST A CATEGORY THREE INTENSITY.

RITA HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8
KNOTS. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN TEXAS/OKLAHOMA IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD ALLOWING RITA
TO TAKE A MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND NORTHERLY TRACK. THE EASTWARD
SHIFT OF THE HIGH IS FORECAST BY ALL GLOBAL MODELS...RESULTING IN
TRACK GUIDANCE CONSISTENTLY TURNING THE HURRICANE TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH TOWARD THE UPPER-TEXAS OR THE WESTERN LOUISIANA
COASTS. AFTER LANDFALL...STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
AND THE CYCLONE COULD MEANDER FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS IN THE VICINITY
OF NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS.

BASED ON THE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII...HURRICANE WARNINGS HAVE
BEEN ISSUED AT THIS TIME FROM PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY
LOUISIANA. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE HURRICANE WARNING.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/1500Z 25.4N 88.7W 145 KT
12HR VT 23/0000Z 25.8N 89.9W 140 KT
24HR VT 23/1200Z 26.9N 91.6W 130 KT
36HR VT 24/0000Z 28.2N 93.0W 125 KT
48HR VT 24/1200Z 30.0N 94.5W 100 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 25/1200Z 33.0N 95.0W 45 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 26/1200Z 34.0N 95.0W 30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 27/1200Z 34.5N 94.5W 25 KT...INLAND


$$

[strandinthewind]

Originally Posted by David

What's the surface temperature of the water between the storm & the coast? That's the kicker.

It is 87 in some parts, but while that is a factor, the storm eventually burns out, as it apparently is doing now. Note - it can easily gain strength in the next cycle if there is time.

[Brwn_eyes0511]

Originally Posted by strandinthewind

It is 87 in some parts, but while that is a factor, the storm eventually burns out, as it apparently is doing now. Note - it can easily gain strength in the next cycle if there is time.

I just posted a new thread about this. They were discussing how once a hurrican reaches its peak, it usually doesn't last that long. So, lets hope!!!!

[Brad]

Thanks for the well wishes everyone. Made it up to Waco (home of my alma mater Baylor) this evening, but not without one HELL of a car trip.

Keep in mind that when I would drive back and forth to school, the trip would be 4 hours MAX, usually 3 1/2.

Well, we left yesterday afternoon from Texas City (about 45 miles or so southeast of downtown Houston and 15 minutes from Galveston) at 1:00 PM. We drove NON-STOP (no food, no pee) until 3:00 AM and were just on the other side of Houston...we went 100 miles in over 13 hours. We were so tired, hungry, and on edge from non-stop traffic that I really thought I might go crazy.

So we decide, screw it, we're turning around and going back home and weathering the damn storm. But then we pass a hotel and decide to see if they have any rooms, and for some weird reason, they did. So we stayed near Spring (on the far northwest side of Houston) last night and got started again this morning at 9:00 and went non-stop to Waco and got here at 5:30 PM. Total time to go ~240 miles: 28 1/2 hours, 22 1/2 of which was road time.

One word? RIDICULOUS

Luckily, we managed to not run out of gas. We stopped last night with about 1/2 a tank to go ahead and refill while we could still find it. Good thing, because there was hardly any gas to be found the rest of the way...tons of people pulled over out of gas, overheated, etc. It's been a huge mess. Oh yeah...gas in Waco?...$2.49...NICE! I don't know if you've seen any of the traffic on TV, but there's just no way to describe it. 100 miles in 13 hours? Imagine... My sister said the news is saying that people are waiting hours to get gas...then some of them go to get it and some places for whatever reason won't take cash, only credit cards...I would be PISSED!

Anyway, that's my story so far. I am in the dirtiest, ugliest hotel known to man in Waco...well, that's an exaggeration, but it is pretty bad. We managed to find rooms for the next two nights at a different place, so we are going to switch tomorrow. We're hoping we'll be able to leave Sunday to go back home...but that trip will probably be just as bad especially since there will be rain or wet streets at least.

Everyone take care...hopefully Chuck and lbelle (sp?) and any others that left are doing okay and will make it to their destinations.

Talk to y'all later,

Brad

[wondergirl9847]

My fellow Texan Ledgies, hope you are all safe and sound!! Take care!!

[eclipse]

I can't stop thinking about this storm-keep watching it and just knowing it will be...
So,So devestating and deadly

Frightning...things you cannot control

Everyone affected.
PLEASE be smart and be safe, you're in my thoughts
~~always
eclipse~~

[Mari]

When is it supposed to 'arrive'? Stay safe, everyone.