Hurricane watch issued for Florida Keys

[gldstwmn]

http://www.cnn.com/2005/WEATHER/09/22/rita/index.html

[DavidMn]

Originally Posted by gldstwmn

http://www.cnn.com/2005/WEATHER/09/1...her/index.html

Tropical Depression 18 grows in Atlantic

Sunday, September 18, 2005; Posted: 11:50 a.m. EDT (15:50 GMT)


(CNN) -- A hurricane watch has been issued for the Florida Keys as a tropical depression strengthened in the Atlantic, the National Hurricane Center said Sunday.

Tropical Depression 18 formed late Saturday near the Bahamas, and the National Hurricane Center forecasts the storm will intensify as it moves west toward the Keys, Cuba and the Gulf of Mexico.

The hurricane watch extends from Ocean Reef southward and westward to Dry Tortugas, which means hurricane conditions and sustained winds of 74 mph or more are possible within 36 hours.

A hurricane watch also is in effect for the northwest Bahamas.

The storm had top sustained winds of 35 mph, but forecasters predicted it would gain intensity and become Tropical Storm Rita by Monday morning and reach hurricane status by Tuesday morning.

At 11 a.m. ET Sunday, the storm was about 390 miles east-southeast of Nassau, Bahamas, and was moving west at near 12 mph, according to the hurricane center.

The storm should move over the eastern and central Bahamas later today. The hurricane center's advisory said up to 8 inches of rain might fall in the Bahamas.

Forecasters said the storm's projected path would take it through the Straits of Florida between South Florida from Cuba. By Wednesday morning, the storm could become a hurricane and move into the Gulf of Mexico.

A tropical storm warning was issued Saturday night for the Turks and Caicos and southeast and central Bahamas, meaning tropical storm conditions and sustained winds of 39-73 mph are expected within 24 hours.

To the east of TD 18, Tropical Storm Philippe became the 16th named storm of the busy 2005 season Saturday night.

As of 11 a.m. ET Sunday, Philippe's top sustained winds had reached 50 mph, and the storm was expected to reach hurricane strength during the next 24 hours. Its center was about 425 miles east-southeast of the Leeward Islands, and it was moving north-northwest at about 7 mph.

Philippe's three-day forecast showed the storm heading to the northwest, into the Atlantic. However, forecasters warned people in the central and northern Lesser Antilles to keep an eye on the storm.

Damn, more hurricanes, just what we dont need.....

[Nixxxed]

Yup. All the Houston TV stations are putting the track directly over my town, as a strong Cat 3 or weak Cat 4. Yeah - big difference. We spent all day getting our supplies together, and getting ready to board up the house and get the f*ck-outta town.

The kicker? My parents actually had the nerve today to suggest that we were NOT taking my birds with us if we have to evacuate. I mean...

My reply: "If the birds don't go, I don't go. And you can just come back into town in a week and sponge up our decomposed bodies. That is - if you can find them in the rubble."

The next fight will come tomorrow or Wednesday, as my Dad thinks he's gonna leave the dog here to "guard" the place from looters. (See my reply above, insert "dog" for "birds"... )

[gldstwmn]

Originally Posted by Nixxxed

Yup. All the Houston TV stations are putting the track directly over my town, as a strong Cat 3 or weak Cat 4. Yeah - big difference. We spent all day getting our supplies together, and getting ready to board up the house and get the f*ck-outta town.

The kicker? My parents actually had the nerve today to suggest that we were NOT taking my birds with us if we have to evacuate. I mean...

My reply: "If the birds don't go, I don't go. And you can just come back into town in a week and sponge up our decomposed bodies. That is - if you can find them in the rubble."

The next fight will come tomorrow or Wednesday, as my Dad thinks he's gonna leave the dog here to "guard" the place from looters. (See my reply above, insert "dog" for "birds"... )

Stay safe. I hope this thing misses you completely.

[BTFLCHLD]

ohno nixxed...i shall be worrying all night and day on you...pls be safe...thank you for taking a stand for your babies...please get back to us asap...

[SuzeQuze]

Nixxed, I hope the storm misses you and you and yours (including the dog and bird) remain safe.

[BTFLCHLD]

friend in houston who evac from orleans was told he will have to evac again more than likely wed...these good people need a break from this.

[DavidMn]

Well, I just heard Rita has ben upgraded to a CAT4 now. Hopefully when it hits Texas, the main eye will pass over that sparsely populated area north of Corpus Christi. At least it looks like its not heading for the New Orleans/Mississippi/Alabama area.

[Nixxxed]

"And the rain, and the wind, and the WATER!!!!!!!!!!"

We're outta here. Woke up this morning to a Category 4 storm heading our way. Not taking any chances.

Anyway - guess I'm outie for a while. What ever will I do without The Ledge for who knows how long?

Thanks EVERYONE for your well-wishes. And my well-wishes to those of you in Rita's path - Brad, lbelle, and the other Houston area Ledgies. PLEASE get out if you're able, and please be safe.



(Yes, it's a duplicate post from the "Hurricane Watch" thread. I'm feeling very needy. )

[DavidMn]

Originally Posted by Nixxxed

"And the rain, and the wind, and the WATER!!!!!!!!!!"

We're outta here. Woke up this morning to a Category 4 storm heading our way. Not taking any chances.

Anyway - guess I'm outie for a while. What ever will I do without The Ledge for who knows how long?

Thanks EVERYONE for your well-wishes. And my well-wishes to those of you in Rita's path - Brad, lbelle, and the other Houston area Ledgies. PLEASE get out if you're able, and please be safe.



(Yes, it's a duplicate post from the "Hurricane Watch" thread. I'm feeling very needy. )

Hey I was so tired when I posted this, I guess I was too lazy to look through the threads. But good luck to you.

[Nixxxed]

Originally Posted by DavidMn

Hey I was so tired when I posted this, I guess I was too lazy to look through the threads. But good luck to you.

Puh-leez - no problem. I'm the one who shifted the topic of the other thread anyway, cuz I was too lazy to start a new one.

And thank you very much. We're trying to look at it as a "vacation". Hope we're able to maintain that attitude, but it will be hard not knowing if we have any place to come home to.

[DavidMn]

Originally Posted by Nixxxed

Puh-leez - no problem. I'm the one who shifted the topic of the other thread anyway, cuz I was too lazy to start a new one.

And thank you very much. We're trying to look at it as a "vacation". Hope we're able to maintain that attitude, but it will be hard not knowing if we have any place to come home to.

I remember going to Corpus Christi as a 13 year old and having a Whataburger. good stuff!! Just something to lighten the mood. But seriously though, even if it hits Houston, its away from the coast by like 50 miles, so I would hope the flooding wont be too bad

[Brwn_eyes0511]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh...l/221455.shtml

000
WTNT43 KNHC 221455
TCDAT3
HURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU SEP 22 2005

RITA APPEARS TO HAVE REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY DURING THE PAST
12 HOURS. HURRICANES TYPICALLY DO NOT MAINTAIN SUCH HIGH INTENSITY
FOR A LONG TIME. INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 145 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH
SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO...DUE TO EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES...AN OVERALL GRADUAL
WEAKENING TREND SHOULD TAKE PLACE. THIS WEAKENING TREND IS BASED ON
LOWER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK AND INCREASING
SHEAR. NEVERTHERELESS...RITA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A
DANGEROUS HURRICANE OF AT LEAST A CATEGORY THREE INTENSITY.

RITA HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8
KNOTS. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN TEXAS/OKLAHOMA IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD ALLOWING RITA
TO TAKE A MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND NORTHERLY TRACK. THE EASTWARD
SHIFT OF THE HIGH IS FORECAST BY ALL GLOBAL MODELS...RESULTING IN
TRACK GUIDANCE CONSISTENTLY TURNING THE HURRICANE TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH TOWARD THE UPPER-TEXAS OR THE WESTERN LOUISIANA
COASTS. AFTER LANDFALL...STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
AND THE CYCLONE COULD MEANDER FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS IN THE VICINITY
OF NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS.

BASED ON THE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII...HURRICANE WARNINGS HAVE
BEEN ISSUED AT THIS TIME FROM PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY
LOUISIANA. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE HURRICANE WARNING.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/1500Z 25.4N 88.7W 145 KT
12HR VT 23/0000Z 25.8N 89.9W 140 KT
24HR VT 23/1200Z 26.9N 91.6W 130 KT
36HR VT 24/0000Z 28.2N 93.0W 125 KT
48HR VT 24/1200Z 30.0N 94.5W 100 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 25/1200Z 33.0N 95.0W 45 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 26/1200Z 34.0N 95.0W 30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 27/1200Z 34.5N 94.5W 25 KT...INLAND


$$