That electoral map on election night will look nothing like that. There's not a single poll, primary election result, or exit poll that supports either of those scenarios. Another thing to keep in mind:
whatever voters are feeling today will be completely different in November.
Today's Gallup national tracking poll puts Obama at 50% and Clinton at 43%.
In a McCain vs. Obama general election, today Gallup has Obama at 47% and McCain at 43%
In a McCain vs. Clinton general election, today Gallup has Clinton at 49% and McCain at 44%
Today's polling also reveal this:
voters believe Obama has a 90% chance of becoming the nominee.
voters believe Clinton has a 8.5% chance of becoming the nominee.
In the general election they think McCain has a 37.1% chance of winning,
Clinton has a 6.5% chance of winning, and Obama has a 55.5% chance of winning.
Interesting but take it with a grain of salt.
Historically Gallup has often been Republican-leaning.
Another look at how Obama could change the electoral map in November:
http://progressillinois.com/2008/05/...a-over-the-top