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Originally Posted by louielouie2000
It's appearing that the 2012 Presidential Election will be between Romney & Obama. Who do you think America will choose? Do you think minorities (especially African Americans) will come out in force again to cast their vote for Obama, or has the novelty worn off?
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Although Romney appears to be the most charismatic and capable of the GOP candidates (which, quite frankly, is not saying a lot), he is no match for Obama wit-for-wit. The fact remains that he will be a tough sell to mainstream America, his Mormon faith notwithstanding. Although Obama has achieved a lot of his objectives during his first term in office, he has also taken some surprisingly centrist positions on issues as they relate to the war, the economy and GLBT rights, which has disenchanted many of his followers. He will definitely have more difficulty this time appealing to the Democratic base unless they can find some concrete issue to rally around. Although the U.S. economy technically entered recession under GWB's watch, unfortunately Obama will be scapgoated repeatedly for allowing the economy to nosedive and causing millions to lose their jobs. Despite the green shoots in the economy, the success of any presidential re-election campaign will rest on what is happening in the moment. If there is no additional stimulus and if congress has agreed to drastic austerity measures in spending, a double-dip recession is all but inevitable, thereby decreasing Obama's chances for re-election. However, if Obama can get the unemployment rate down to around the 8% area, he will be viewed as a saviour of sorts, thereby making him a shoo-in for a second term. At this point it's hard to say which way this will all go.
The other big variable is the ability for the GOP to organize around a single strong leader. Is Romney that leader? I don't honestly know. But I get the feeling that he will not appeal to the largest bloc of voters- the evangelicals.