I know you want this to only be yes or no, but I think it's a very interesting topic for discussion. Out of the 44 US presidents, only 10 incumbents have lost re-election... so Obama has that in his favor. Even if a president's specific policies are unpopular, Americans don't seem to like changing leadership in mid-cycle (George W Bush is a perfect example of this). I think Americans feel it would be an admission of weakness if they chose another president before the current one is term-limited. I think it's also common sentiment that presidents truly need 8 years to get anything done. That their hands are so tied by partisan politics the first 4 years, they can't accomplish anything.
There are several factors that will make the 2012 elections very interesting, though. Obama's election and subsequent policies have mobilized and galvanized the very bruised, splintered right wing. The Tea Party movement seems to be the 21st century renaissance of the Republican party. If the Republicans nominate someone who isn't business as usual for the '12 election, they have a good chance at unseating Obama. Obama also hasn't been terribly good at pleasing his own base. Another big factor will be the continued wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. The single biggest issue of the next election will be the economy, though. Unless some headway is made, Obama's got an uphill battle.
For what it's worth, I still think Obama will get another term. I feel America elected Obama as a signal they wanted to do things differently. His first term has been purely reactionary; I think Americans are still curious to see what Obama would do on offense vs defense.
|