I pretty much agree with what you said. There was a slight change after Rumours came out (probably a result of the tour), although it was more subtle than the changes later. But I seem to recall back then that she developed nodules on her vocal cords, which was probably responsible for the change. But in the Tusk era, she still sounded like young Stevie to me. I think it was during Mirage that the change became more obvious, and she was struggling with the condition of her vocal cords a lot more, sounding hoarse at times, and her pitch was lower. She could still hit the high notes at times, but didn't do it as often.
In 1983, she began to sound monotone during some of her live performances, and was not carrying out the melody of her songs as much, seeming to sing in the same note at times, such as during the US Festival. I would say a major milestone was RAL, when she started that sort of squealing singing still (not sure how to describe it), which became even more prominent during the Red Rocks period.
From there, it seemed to be a gradual development into the voice she has now, but I think the current voice seemed to start developing around the time of TOSOTM, and was really prominent by Street Angel.
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