'24 Karat Gold' chart and sales predictions
 

Just slightly over 3 years ago, 'In Your Dreams' debuted on the Billbaord 200 at #6 with sales of slightly over 52,000 copies.

The music business and album sales has changed slightly since then and is evident in that last week, the #1 album on the Billboard 200 sold exactly the same amount that scored Stevie a #6 placing 3 years ago.

This is the point I'm trying to make:

1/ Will Stevie's new album sell more than 52,000 in the US in its first week?

2/ Will it debut higher than #6?

3/ Having just finished an extremely successful tour with Fleetwood Mac in Europe, will the
album debut higher than 'In Your Dreams' in countries such as the UK where that album
did quite well and reached #14?

4/ Will the album have as much longevity as 'In Your Dreams' which spent 16 weeks on the
Billboard 200?

5/ Will the album help the sales of FM's new album or will it make people not so eager to buy it?

6/ Will Stevie's appearance on 'The Voice' make a massive difference to the success of the
album?

7/ Will there be a hit single, and if so, will it make the album have more longevity on the
charts?

These are the questions that I often think about and please answer the numbered questions or post any views you have on this topic. Thanks guys!!! ;)

Unwind, Love is hard to find. I hope Stevie releases a rock and roll song as a single and leave the ballads for the live performances.

In Your Dreams was mostly new material. This is outtakes from other albums.


Um no I don't think this will be as successful they didn't make it onto other albums because well we don't know but

No i don't think it will be as sucussful. The voice will help somewhat and I think thats whats their waiting for right now - they can release the album today but they wont they are waiting for the voice

Honestly, Stevie promoted the crap out of IYD. We had videos prior to album release, a single, she was on ever music reality show and talk show.She'd have to do a publicity tour to an extreme for it to top IYD. She visited some shows twice during her rounds for IYD. I think 24 Carat will definately debut within the top 20 if not top 10 when it is released.

If she plays the nastologia of the demos and outtakes, it might work to drag in some older music buyers who might not have bought a record since Belladonna.

Personally, I'd like to see her albums re-released along with 24 Carat and give us the outtakes and demos.

I think if the album has special moments and is not too commonplace then it will do at least as well as IYD.

As for the originals of the vaults songs, I think a new Greatest Hits type thing like Enchanted back in 1998 will include some of those. I bet she will do that sometime after the FM tour and album dies off in a year or two. Since Enchanted she will have had three original studio albums, two soundtrack contributions (Sweet November and Practical Magic), two contributions to other collections (Dave Grohl and Buddy Holly), some live stuff, and some other covers like R & R and Crash and Circle Dance etc. A blend of those and some old outtakes/demos and BANG! there is another 2 - 3 disc retrospective!

1/ Will Stevie's new album sell more than 52,000 in the US in its first week?

Probably Not.

2/ Will it debut higher than #6?

Probably Not. My guess is Top 20, but not top 10. All of this is dependent on publicity, though. So far there has been none, and the album is supposed to be out in 2-3 months. We don't even have an official title, track listing, single, video, press photos, etc. Doesn't bode well for a successful album launch.

3/ Having just finished an extremely successful tour with Fleetwood Mac in Europe, will the album debut higher than 'In Your Dreams' in countries such as the UK where that album did quite well and reached #14?

Probably Not. It's been nearly a year since FM was in Europe. The public moves on & forgets very quickly. Plus, it was a FM tour, not a Stevie one...

4/ Will the album have as much longevity as 'In Your Dreams' which spent 16 weeks on the Billboard 200?

Probably Not.

5/ Will the album help the sales of FM's new album or will it make people not so eager to buy it?

Stevie's album will get the FM brand in the public's conscious again, as will the upcoming FM tour. So yes, her album will probably help the FM album to some degree, especially if it receives critical acclaim. Any boost in sales would be minor, though.

6/ Will Stevie's appearance on 'The Voice' make a massive difference to the success of the album?

It depends on when Stevie's segments air. If her segments air around the time the album is released, AND her album is mentioned on the show, then yes.

7/ Will there be a hit single, and if so, will it make the album have more longevity on the charts?

No. Stevie's & Fleetwood Mac's hit singles days are over. Cher was the oldest woman to have a #1 song- she was 52 at the time. Louis Armstrong is the oldest man, he was 62- but that was in 1964. The odds of a woman having a hit single in her later 60s in this day & age are pretty much non-existent.

I have faith the album will do reasonably well. Stevie is doing the right thing by staying in the public eye with her appearances on The Voice, which has the highest ratings of all other shows in that genre.

The notion that these songs are substandard because they never made it on an album is misguided. Artists often have a backlog of unreleased songs. They remain unreleased for various reasons unrelated to their quality.

It seems a lot of her backlog of unreleased songs are only rough demos, or works in progress, but were abandoned at some point. From what I hear, only a small amount were finished works slated for release, but then cut.

We already have access to all of her demos. It appears that a lot of them are not worthy of official release. It's quality control issue; you can't expect Stevie would want to release them in their inferior condition. Even with the demos and outakes she might consider officially releasing , I'm sure she would take them into a studio and tweak them.

Long time no chat guys .Sorry.been busy and being outside away from the computer.

This is a fan album .I will be shocked if it does anything on the charts,sales or even get radio airplay.

I agree with louielouie2000 on what he posted.

We seen the results from IYD.

If Stevie wants chart recognition.She's got to team up with some young artists and record a teeny popper,rap- hip hop and country-rock tunes .



I will think positive .I hope something will come out from it for Stevie.

Yes Cher and Tina Turner had great comebacks.Stevie can do it with the the right people and tunes.

1) More and more people are discovering Stevie Nicks/Fleetwood Mac on an on-going basis. In Your Dreams was very good so I could see the same people buying 24KG plus newer fans. So I'd guess it could sell slightly higher initially.
2) If she retains the IYD buyers as well as new fans then I could see it getting enough sales to push it top 5.
3) It will barely dent the chart in Europe. It'll be lucky to get top 20.
4) No, I don't see that she'll have the time/opportunity to market it. Couple of decent weeks on the chart and then, bye-bye.
5) It can only help FM. Cant see how or why it would make people less likely to buy FM.
6) American Idol should give it some boost but I doubt it would be a major one.
7) Can't see a Stevie or FM song ever hitting the top 40 ever again let alone top 10.

I think her best chance of a hit single is to get a cool, contemporary urban DJ to remix an old song and somehow get it featured on a TV advert.

Um...really? Because these songs didn't make it on to other albums, THAT will make this project less successful than her other efforts?

^^^THANK YOU!!! Don't get me wrong, Stevie has her share of stinkers where you know EXACTLY why they didn't make it on an album, but other "classic Stevie" songs that never made it on records ("If You Were My Love", "Julia", "Blue Water", etc.) were due to many factors, as PenguinHead said, unrelated to quality of the work. The length of time per side of vinyl back in the day being the MAIN reason, most likely. The length of her songs in general, being another. "Julia" is basically almost 6 minutes. I would have loved it if it were on "Bella Donna" instead of "Think About It" and "After The Glitter Fades". But I think either she or Jimmy (or both) wanted to fit as many songs as they could on the record, so maybe their thought process was to put two short songs on and save the very long "Julia" for something else.

Let's also not forget that two of the three singles chosen for TISL were "vault songs", as well as the lead single for IYD. I think that, in and of itself, kind of shoots down your theory that this album will be unsuccessful simply because they're all older songs that haven't made it onto a previous release.

If this album is unsuccessful, it will be due to lack of public interest, lack of promotion, lack of radio singles, lack of videos, or poor production quality in the songs, but I can't believe it will be unsuccessful due to the songs themselves. You've heard these wonderful demos, right?

-Dave (he gots feelin's)

I don't really care about the chart status of the album, and I hope Stevie doesn't either. Lots of bands and solo artists don't chart and still have huge followings and sold out or near sold out shows. What I do care about is that Stevie record more music without regard for charts and hits.

I hope that someone has already told Stevie that seeing chart status as a measure of success or worth is setting herself up for a feeling of failure.

She got new fans from American Horror Story.

Chart position will depend largely on promotion, and if the intent is still to release the album in October, that needs to begin NOW. And it really hasn't. A single needs to be released next month. We need a confirmed title, album cover, track list, and some "official" social media activity needs to begin quickly…..Stevie's appearance on The Voice will help a little, and she's going to have to do some solo publicity while she's on the road with the Mac. If she doesn't, the album doesn't have much of a chance. I doubt there will be an official video (when will they film it with Stevie heading into Mac rehearsals?).

The good news is that Stevie has a strong built-in fan base who will buy anything she puts out. If her people use social media smartly and effectively, and she does some advance publicity, she could have a strong debut. But I don't think it will sell as much as IYD did. As someone else mentioned, this seems to be an album for the fans (and perhaps one to fulfill her contractual obligations before rejoining the Mac).

One thing is for sure, I'll be getting it the minute it comes out. So that's at least one copy there….:-)

Refering to the album as the "vault songs" aims towards her fan base. If it has a chance of a wider audience, I think she may want to minimize the demo, vault talk and the cheesy K-Tel Records 24 Karates: Song from the Vaults title. Old songs + old lady ain't gonna sell bigtime.

This is what I've been trying to say for some time. This is going to be an album geared towards her hardcore fans- it will likely alienate a broader audience because of that. I, however, am just fine with that. This is the grand motion many of us fans have been waiting for for decades. :)

I'm with you, and can't wait to hear the album. Plus I bet we're gonna get mostly new material fom her on the Fm album. What a great year for all of us SN/FM fans!

I was just looking over her Amazon reviews and it seems to me like she has gotten more than the usual trickle of reviews for the last year. More people are buying her albums and they are younger. If you go on twitter it seems like there is a huge influx of youth into Stevie. Her sales might end up being surprising to some.

:xoxo: Thank you for being a voice of reason! Actually I feel that this album might have the potential to do much better than In Your Dreams since she hasn't let ten years ebb by since her last one. She's on the radar now more than ever; her numerous TV appearances, along with recent stellar performances on Fleetwood Mac's successful tour have put her back in the limelight. Stevie is culturally relevant again.

As a cultural icon, she is appealing to a new, more expansive audience. Many high-profile celebrities have publicly praised her, and numerous artists have cited her as an influence/muse. I hope the marketing/promotion of the album is robust, and the reviews of the album are positive. Perhaps Dave Stewart, with his outside the box marketing savvy, has something surprising up his sleeve to give the album a boost. We should see Stevie back on the front cover of Rolling Stone again, like she was in 1981!

While Fleetwood Mac is launching a tour with Christine back in the fold, with nothing new to promote, Stevie has something new to offer, and she remains in the public conscience. The concern some have about the name of album doesn't seem as a detractor to me; on the contrary, "Songs from the Vault" creates the allure of intrigue and mystery; isn't everyone's interest peeked to know what's in a vault, whatever that vault may be?

If Stevie continues to get positive reviews & a lot of good press close to the release date, 24 Karat Gold should be poised for a high debut (definitely Top 10) Very possibly Top 5.

August 5th's rollout of the 1st promo single The Dealer, the "24 Karat" pre-order, along with the "official lyric video" spurred 50+ Stevie Nicks articles (98% positive) across various major and indie websites that week, and also had her trending on FB and ranking high on Itunes rock charts for 2 days.

They were smart releasing "The Dealer" official lyric video, which really gained traction with all these positive internet articles announcing both the arrival of the 1st promo single, and new record/album release. "The Dealer" racked up nearly 300K views on YouTube by the end of that week! YouTube views have slowed, but the video still has almost 350K views as of this post. By comparison, Tom Petty & The Heartbreakers released 2 official video promo songs: "American Plan Dream Plan B" (33K views) and "You Get Me High" (only has 43K views), and they were published 2 weeks earlier on July 22nd, yet their new album sailed into #1 because of their promotional concert ticket/new album bundle. :cool: Without that bundle, I believe TP's 1st week sales would've been well under 50K. They are getting some radio play (You Get Me High) on adult alternative radio stations now, which is likely a direct result of their #1 album debut, which has been nearly as long coming for them, as Stevie's last #1 album.

But back to Stevie. By mid-September I think were gonna see a full media blitz, press releases, and advanced reviews, along with the filmed performance video rollout. In this ADD news culture we now live in (which is why Stevie & Warners are releasing a total of 4 promo singles in advance of the album), I wouldn't be surprised that "24 Karat Gold" - the song, released Sept 23rd, will end up being the filmed performance video & final promo single released for radio adds.
Right now, it's hard to gauge what 1st week sales may be, because it will depend of the quality and quantity of press & promotion in another month & how good "24 Karat Gold" (the song) came out. But if Stevie gets the same response that the unveiling of "The Dealer" did on August 5th, I belive she'll do very well! Even though, ultimately, I don't worry about record sales for Stevie anymore, it's gonna feel good to see her work recognized, as well as adding another top 10 record to her repertoire.

Stevie is Off the itunes charts (shes not even on rock charts)

Yes, but that was all pre-order driven when the Aug 5th PR announcement was made. Those pre-orders from Aug 5th through Oct.7th's release date will eventually add into "24 Karat Golds" 1st week sales totals.

Exactly. And for digital sales, many people won't be incentivized to pre-order, when they can download the whole album upon its release.

For once, I'm not going to pay attention to sales. I feel like this is going to be one of her best album and I'm going to feel great about it.

Yes! And that is exactly the attitude it seems that Stevie is taking about this album, too. Cannot wait to hear the final, complete product.

Like I ended my earlier post, ultimately, I don't worry anymore about Stevies overall sales (esp. since the music industry is even further in the crapper than in 2011) My only wish is that this record gets a strong opening, and notches Stevie another top 10 album in her solo career. I don't even care about radio play. That ship has sailed. And who really listens to radio, most younger folks Spotify, Pandora, or YouTube.

After hearing Mabel Normand today, I'm even more assured thinking Stevie is going to be getting some great press, fantastic reviews & recognition. And yes, this record is sounding likey to become her best album (so far) in the 21st century, and one of her best overall.

From what I've heard of Mabel Normand today from the 15 second clip, I think it would make a fantastic single. I started to get really excited after I heard it because if I'm being honest, The Dealer and If You Were My Love haven't really got me that excited for the album. If You Were My Love sounds a little boring to me, even though I shouldn't totally judge after only 15 seconds, and The Dealer is quite good with her vocals not being the best but it's just good. I want something to make me really excited for the first time since Trouble in Shangri-La which in my opinion is her best album since 1983 or 1985. The Mabel Normand clip gave me that excited feeling which I only felt in 2001. That's REALLY good news for me! :]

A few reviews have assumed that because these songs didn't make an album before that somehow they're somehow subpar. I agree with you that this is misguided...these songs didn't make albums in many cases simply because there wasn't room for them.

The only thing that baffles me is how these songs also didn't make albums in place of what are, IMO, weaker material on Street Angel, Tango In The Night, and Behind The Mask.

http://i1361.photobucket.com/albums/...ps0e314aed.png

#3 on Amazon...Right NOW!...:nod:

Stevie has 2 records in the top 75 if you count FM.

Considering that Nicks is a legacy act, I think any Top 10 debut of an album of hers is amazing. That being said, I'm hopeful that the level of excitement about this release seems higher than IYD, and her turns on Glee, American Horror Story, and The Voice, plus the Mac tour, will with luck pay off.

Stevie's album cover is perfect! When I see Barbra's I think plastic surgery, hello! And Cheek to Cheek, my God Gaga! Stevie wins out.

To say that album sales are bad is an understatement. Each year hits a new low and this year is the lowest yet.

To be fair, a few stinkers have made their way on her albums. Song length is certainly an issue when deciding what goes on an album. I assume they begin an album with no determined set list. They work on a bunch of random songs; more songs than they need. In the process certain songs, by natural selection, just fall by the wayside. A few become b-sides/bonus tracks. Others are shelved or abandoned in various states of development.

And really Stevie's first songs from the vault album was Bella Donna! Really only 3 songs were written with the purpose of being on Bella Donna. The title song, edge and outside the rain. Stop dragging is her carousel equivalent and the other 6 songs could've all just been called fleetwood Mac rejects. Obviously that's not true, but it's the same logic one could have with 24KG. And really only Bella Donna has as high a percentage of songs not written in the specific timeframe as the actual album.

well..
 

according to Hits Daily Double, "24 Karat Gold" will chart in the top ten in the 25K - 28K range.. A hit single with lots of airplay would really help.. (but I don't think she's going to get that).

YOUR NEW RELEASES: No too close to call this week, as Jason Aldean easily locks up the #1 spot on next week’s HITS Album Chart. Impressive debut shaping up for buzzing Irish newcomer Hozier. Here are this week’s key debuts:

Jason Aldean (Broken Bow) 290-310k
Hozier (Columbia) 50-55k
Weezer (Republic) 30-35k
Alex & Sierra (SYCO/Columbia) 28-32k
Stevie Nicks (Reprise) 25-28k
Keyshia Cole (Geffen) 22-25k
Jackson Browne (Inside) 17-20k
Tinashe (RCA) 17-20k
New Found Glory (Hopeless) 17-20k
Sixx:A.M. (Eleven Seven) 15-18k
The Piano Guys (Sony Masterworks) 14-17k
Yellowcard (Razor & Tie) 12-15k

Seeing Stevie Nicks and Jackson Browne’s names on the above list is giving us what we referred to in the 1970s as a rock & roll cold. Sniff-sniff. (10/8p)

So if stevie sells the high end of her range and weezer sells the low end of theirs she can get as high as #3. I kind of wish she could've just sold in the 50k range and gotten #2 but oh we'll.

These are just new releases. Other albums may be in the top 10.

Based on the current HITS Double album chart numbers of 25 to 28K, Stevie would have entered the chart at number 8. http://www.hitsdailydouble.com/sales/salescht.cgi

Okay so I'm not getting this....did Billboard not update their album chart yet? Because if you look at this page:

http://www.billboard.com/album/62796...from-the-vault

It appears to show a #5 debut for 24 Karat Gold but if you look at the actual chart itself, the album isn't on it.

Won't be updated until next week.