Can Stevie break the trend?
 

There was a time in mid and late 90s when female singer songwriters ruled the charts. However, now it seems like some of them are in danger of getting dropped by their record companies. Sheryl Crow, Melissa Ethridge, Tracey Chapman, Jewel, Alanis Morrisette cannot even sale enough records to earn Gold status, forget about platinum. Can Stevie break this trend? Both her and Lucinda Williams are releasing albums this year and it will be interesting to see just what happens. I think if Stevie gets a gold album it will give record companies some hope that older singer songwriters can sell records.

I hope she does, but I honestly don't know. I think Stevie has a much larger advantage over these women because she has much more name recognition and voice recognition than these women. I also think it has to do with where these women are in their careers. Taylor Swift sold over a million albums the week it dropped, so why can't Sheryl Crow break 500,000 over a year or two? I think Sheryl and all the other who ruled the charts 10-20 years ago are in the same place Stevie was in in the late 80s/early 90s. Too old to be current and too young to be veteran. Since 1997, Stevie has been given the status of rock legend and her career has seen a dramatic upward movement as a result. I think as time goes by, these women will see much more success, and that is the point Stevie is at now. I think Stevie's ten year absence also plays on her favor. Melissa Etheridge has a new album coming out? cool, I'm going to go buy it!! *3 years later* Melissa has a new album coming out? I might go buy it. *2 years later* Oh Melissa has a new album coming out? Hmm, I may preview it on iTunes, but I didn't really care for her last one... Like Stevie once said, "If you see someone running down the street naked every day, you eventually stop looking up." I think since it has been so long since her last album, people are less likely to not buy it because of their reaction to TISL. Since Melissa releses albums regularly, it isn't news when she releases a new one, but when Stevie releases an album after ten years, it is news. Plus, it creates a higher demand. That being said tho, we can't count our chickens before they hatch. SYW was the first studio album by Fleetwood Mac with both Lindsey and Stevie in 16 years and was expected to sell 3 million... 8 years later and it still hasn't sold 1 million. I guess we will have to wait and see.

To your average album buyer, Stevie's even less known than the names you mentioned (Sheryl, Alanis, etc). Her fame was decades before those women. And now Stevie's been inactive in recording new material for a full decade. On top of that, she's in her 60s... the oldest chart topping woman was Cher, who is far better known than Stevie and was over a decade younger when she had her last big hit. Anyone who actually believes Stevie is going to have any sort of sales or radio chart success at this point in the game is just seriously deluded. :sorry:

10 years between albums....that's insane. Artists used to release two (sometimes three) albums A YEAR! (Beatles, Stones, Elton John, as examples)...one album would knock their previous album out of the charts. They would consistently have an album in the TOP 10, or in the Beatles' case, multiple albums. Now if an artist releases an album within two years of the previous one, it's considered "flooding the market". I call it lack of creativity. I'd like to see the trend move back to artists having to release multiple albums per year...we'll see who stays & who goes.

I was just about to post that. I believe Stevie's day has passed. We'll all buy..but really how many will.really:distress:

Mick

Everything you said was true. Those women have reached the 40 year old slump, and some of the other ones just have had one bad release after another. Stevie's record company did an amazing job with the TISL VH1 presale, helping the album debut at #5. I'm hoping Dave has something up his sleave. What I would like to see though is an album that sticks around for the while on the charts. The Wild Heart was really the last album that had any staying power. I don't excatly think that quality is all the matters, either. Hole released a great album this year and it nosedived off that charts. I have to say this though. Sheryl Crow's music is easy to like and so is Melissa's, but they don't really have the IT thing that Stevie had. I'm not sure what their futures are going to be like. Girls such as Taylor Swift should be usuing them as role models, but instead are still using Stevie.

Yes, this is true to a point, but considering the fact that Stevie gets listed more on American Idol and was used by Taylor Swift and cited Michelle Branch-- something is going on. Stevie's IT thing hasn't qiete wamed completely yet. And is it just me or is Stevie more popular than ever overseas. The only place Crystal Visions is gold is in Australia.

I think Stevie's main disadvantage is that she is like a rock n roll Garbo; she has no public persona at all. Meanwhile Melissa Etheridge is out there doing Broadway, Alannis is acting in Weeds and Sheryl Crow seems to show up at any and every event that would have her. Meanwhile all we have seen of Stevie are a few unflattering shots of her walking into a restaurant with her hand covering her face. That's it! She doesn't do television or film. She doesn't have a stormy private life. She doesn't do high profile charity events or attend parties. And it doesn't help matters that an entire generation of kids became music-buying adults during her ten-year absence. She could release the best album of the century, but the world at large will not bother to check it out because they've never heard of this "Stevie Nicks" dude. A couple of years ago I was waiting in line outside of a Starbucks for a Carly Simon performance/CD signing. The Starbucks was located on Astor Place, which is NYU ground zero. This girl walked by and asked who Carly Simon was. I named a few songs like "You're so Vain," and she maintained this quizzical, vacant expression. It was only when I mentioned the line "I bet you think this song is about you..." that the glimmer of recognition came on. She remembered that "old" Janet Jackson song. :rolleyes:

Well, Alanis, Crow and Ethridge, even with name recognition cannot get a gold album. So, name recognition must not be that important.

Well, it means that a) none of them have released career-defining recordings recently and b) if it's this bad for them now, imagine how bad it will be for someone with even less exposure, e.g., la Nicks. Also, if you look at the recent sales figures for Stevie's other peers in their 60s, the statistics are even more harrowing. That being said, I think Stevie will have a great couple of weeks before falling off a cliff.

I agree. I feel the same way about filmmakers.

As for Stevie breaking "the trend": she only sells to her fanbase at this point.

She would need crossover appeal, which means she needs a hit single.

Not. Going. To. Happen.

How did Heart's Red Velvet Car do, sales-wise? I'd imagine Stevie's album to do about the same as that, if not a little bit better.

Hmmm. There is the song Cheaper then Free, and country music likes to play videos.

It's not gold and gone from charts. I don't know about Stevie's sales with this record. She's coming off a very public tour with Rod Stewart. She's got a video for country, ala Cheaper than Free. And Warner has not even really started to market the album yet. Dave has been secretative about his marketing plans too and he's up to something.

LOL! I was just gonna ask about Heart's flop album! :laugh:

ALL the caterwauling on here about how ignorant and stupid Stevie is in her lack of online savvy-ness reached a fevered pitch when Heart was preparing to release their "acclaimed" "comeback" album, and Heart were doing hip/Now!/With It! Internet tactics. All that viral activity, leaking album tracks early... I can't even remember all the lists of how much smarter Heart were being than Stevie the Stegosaurus while building the online BUZZ among today's YOUTH, who ONLY get their information and opinions from YouTube. Today's Youth would surely be virally enticed into worshipping Heart and immediately adding the band to their shrines to Katy Perry and GaGa. Heart had tackled the Internet Beast!!!

L-O-F-ing-L!!!!!!!!! :laugh::laugh::laugh::laugh:

I'll type your Replies for you: "Well! At least Heart tried! Stevie doesn't do anything!!!"
:laugh::]:laugh:

Bingo. As much as I like Secret Love, and love that it recalls her 80's work & also believe it's her best single since Rooms On Fire or maybe TTM, mostly due to its production and her vocal not necessarily the song. However it is not the 80's anymore! Had this song come out in the 80's during RAL or OSOTM it probably would have been a big hit.

I'm positive there are better songs on IYD than this:nod:. Stevie and WBR played their safe card again. While Stevie probably wanted to release a song that she solely wrote because *bonus* when she performs this on TV promo appearances>>she gets additional royalty payments! not to mention when it sees the light on the next repackaged greatest hits compilation. (which is why I also suspect she prefers to perform her self-penned hits like Stand Back, Rhiannon & Landslide again and again on TV as opposed to something like TTM.)

If Stevie goes gold with IYD (fingers crossed & stars align) within a year it will be considered a big home run for her! I think we will be able to better discern what kind of opening week #'s IYD will do @ a month before the release based on what kind of a pre-promotion plans they unveil. Right now I optimistically expect 10>25K units to sell in it's 1st week. (thats down from 25>50K I estimated months ago before I heard the 1st single and its generated response). So If that's the case, It will be a sloooow long climb to cross the 500K threshold. But Hey, more importantly, at least to those of us that care a lot, probably too much, we will have brand spanking new Stevie Nicks music to devour. Finally!!!

Heart's "Red Velvet Car" moved about 60,000 copies.

The band's previous album "Jupiter's Darling" sold 100,000 copies, but the band's then label Sovereign filed bankruptcy and still owes Heart money.

"Secret Love" just went to radio for ads, so I'm watching mediabase, etc.

She better do better than that or she might never see gold. TISL basically stopped selling period. It has stayed at the same number for almost 10 years.

I think that's a pretty good bellwether for how In Your Dreams will do. I'd even argue Heart has better name recognition than Stevie does. They've also sold several times the albums Stevie has in her solo career. If Heart's latest album didn't even go Gold, and only hit #10 on the album charts, Stevie is destined to do even more poorly.

Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Yes, Heart has sold more albums than solo Stevie, but they've also released twice as many titles over a longer time span, yet Heart has not had a gold or platinum album in almost twenty years. And in terms of the venues that they play, Stevie is still playing to much larger audiences solo and larger still for FM. Do you think a Rod Stewart-Heart billing would have played two nights at Madison Square Garden? Sure, Heart has their diehard audience, but over the years- through changing sounds, changing personas, changing lineups, changing labels, there's been a huge amount of attrition. And as much as I hate to say it, I suspect a huge chunk of their fanbase balked at Ann Wilson's appearance (there's an inverse correlation between Heart's album sales and Ann's weight).

As a more casual Heart fan, their most recent album barely blipped on my radar. In fact, the only reason I even knew about their new album was because of some chatter on the Ledge. To the mainstream world at large... it was like a tree falling in the forest. So for all this talk about Heart using social online media and new channels for promoting their material, I think it all kinda flopped. Heart's album was good (not fantastic), and it was true to who they were, but it was far, far from earthshattering or novel. There is no question in my mind that Stevie's album will break new ground for her artistically and that both casual fans and fans of FM will take notice. This isn't going to be a run-of-the-mill Stevie album (as if such a thing could even exist).

Heart has sold roughly twice the number of albums that Stevie has as a solo artist, but Stevie's role in FM's album and ticket sales has to be figured into her total as well.

Just looking at numbers, Heart's career spins at radio are a fraction of Stevie's. The combined spins of Dreams, Landslide and Stand Back are greater than all of Heart's recurrent tracks combined. Stevie's overall consumer and listener impressions simply crushes Heart's.

Luckily for Stevie, there doesn't appear to be any competition on May 3 and she is likely to debut in the top 3 even if her first week sales mirror Heart's first week sales of "Red Velvet Car," which it should.

I think the goal should be for IYD to shift 40-50K in it's 1st week. That would be pretty awesome in this day and age & considering Stevie's age and absence from new music market in over 8 years. But I just don't see it happening... yet. However it's still too soon to gauge, We're still almost 3 months out and there hasn't been any major promotion yet, I'm not counting the Ellen appearance, cause you barely even heard Ellen say Stevie's new album is out in May over the audience applause and credits rolling:distress:. The press just started with the new RS article about her arena dates with Rod, including a mention of her record & review of Secret Love.

I sure hope Stevie does do some music related public appearances before the tour. A presenter at the Grammy's would be incredible, but I just don't think it's Stevie's cup of tea. She more apt to do the radio appearance route plus the sporadic newspaper interview while she's on the road w. Rod in major markets. Also don't forget the radio industry gig she booked starting next friday (Sunset Sessions) which is right up Stevie's arsenal of usual promotion tricks. Stevies been accustomed to cooing up to radio industry insiders since the beginning of her career. Unfortunately less formats play her music anymore.

IDK, While you argue that Heart has more name recognition than Stevie (though I don't agree with that statement), I would argue that Stevie has more brand recognition. Yes, Heart since the beginning of their career til' now may have sold more than Stevie's solo output. But Heart does not have the same overall cache that Stevie Nicks has. You cannot exclude Fleetwood Mac in that regard, in addition to Stevies solo success. It's not even close. Remember it's Stevie Nicks who is still touring arenas with FM or with Rod Stewart. It's also important to remember that Stevie is relevant today by way of still inspiring a diverse group of current musicians ranging from Florence & The Machine, Bats For Lashes, Rilo Kiley...all the way to Miley Cyrus and Taylor Swift.

Stevie should easily sell double if not triple of Hearts last release. 250K is in her reach... I just don't know if 500K is.:cool:

I really think Stevie has squandered her chances too often, she had a chance to be reborn after The Dance and dawdled 4 years to release TISL, SYW flopped at least in part because it had been 6 years since The Dance, and then she spent 7/8 years wandering around doing cover songs in casinos in a stale setlist and releasing nothing compelling, coasting on oldies. The new album may be good but the population of people who will be interested has dried up.

Exactly. I don't see how anyone thinks Heart will sell more albums than Stevie. Maybe in their two heydays, but Stevie has proven to be the long distance winner. Stevie (solo) has sold half the number of albums as Heart has in the United States. However, Heart released their first album 36 years ago and have released 13 studio albums. Stevie released her first solo album 30 years ago and has only released 6 albums. Also, TISL came out three years before Heart's Jupiter's Darling, and managed to sell 500,000 within the first month, whereas Jupiter's Darling only managed to sell 100,000 three years later. And then to comment about Heart's album being a flop? Really? By what standards? Album sales have been dropping and being that they have sold almost 60,000 when their last album only moved 100,000 isn't that shocking. Not to mention, Red Velvet Car was their first top ten album in 20 years and the highest debuting album of their career. It just blows my mind that people say Stevie will be lucky to sell 50-100k copies, which is only 10%-20% of what TISL did, yet Heart sells that much and their last album had a fifth of the sales that TISL had, but Red Velvet Car is a flop? A 40% drop in sales for Heart is a flop but a 80-90% drop in sales for Stevie is lucky? Whaaat? Will In Your Dreams be certified Gold by July 2011? It is highly unlikely. But will she have 250k sold by the end of 2011? Most likely. Will she have over 500k? Probably not, but it isn't impossible. Since she has been gone for so long, it is hard to predict the market. But with the right marketing and things such as this Rod Stewart tour, a release right before Mother's Day, and all this praise from the critics will help the sales dramatically.

This made my day :D :D

It seems most stations don't let you request songs anymore- especially ones that play new music.

Being delusional has had such a negative spin put on it in this thread.
Delusion's reputation and the merits of delusion need to be rethought.
It comes in handy, when it's most needed, too.
I think she'll sell well, if the cd is excellent in a way that TISL and SYW just weren't, to my taste. 'In Your Dreams' is nothing to get all pragmatic about!

It's Stevie Frickin' Nicks- if she has the miracle of a killer song on it that just can't be dismissed- Stevie could be the comeback of the century.

Being hopeful isn't as fun as being delusional, but it works, sometimes.
Not caring about being right make both hope and delusion possible. So, I believe it's possible it could be both a great cd and a great-selling cd.
I know it's not 1985! I just don't care!~

In addition to SoundScan sales figures and radio airplay audience impressions measured by Nielsen BDS, Billboard also uses streaming activity data from various online music sources to determine its charts.

Click & stream "Secret Love" as much as you can and it will impact airplay charts, which can impact those decision-makers at traditional radio stations.

Record companies know that more people are exposed to new music via computers than by traditional radio stations.

The Itunes & Amazon clips or YouTube's "leaked" version? ...or both?

I know that the importance of anything going viral is closely watched by music industry insiders. Billboard magazine online even tracks viral music videos weekly. That's why I was hoping the 1st leak of Secret Love - Jan.13th on YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WpLprHBRaLM - would have notched more views than 42,106 after almost 4 weeks. If it had views in the 250-500K range that would probably be considered "viral" for something new by Stevie at this point.
Keep playing that link... even if you have to mute the volume.:laugh:

I think that Stevie's album will be a critical success musically, but sales-wise, perhaps respectively modest in sales. Much has been mentioned here about 1990's-established female singer-songwriters struggle to meet the sales figures they had in their hey-day.

Unfortunately, the entire world has changed since those days. So it's unreleasonable to expect sales of that level. Even the new artists today, though successful, are not ever going reach level of sales. In fact, there has been such a major shift, you can sell far less that a half-million and still top the charts!

Artists like Taylor Swift, Lady Gaga, and that Justin kid are flukes to a certain extent. The most creative element of their careers isn't in the music, but in the marketing. They are crafted to served to a certain demographic.

Stevie is in a different realm all together, generation-wise. She is now among an elder-elite group of artists ( ex: Tom Petty, Eric Clapton...and female singers I can't think of right now! lol). Her album will be successful, but not the way you traditionally think it will.

I'm not worried. Stevie will alway have a home(s), will never go hungry, and will always be able to maintain her fabulous lifestyle.

The pragmatist in me does not expect much in the way of In Your Dreams sales beyond her hard core fans. Sure, the music may be some of the best she's ever done. The collaboration with Dave Stewart might have energized her creativity in ways that you can't imagine, but that part of me can't fathom the record selling much more than 100,000 copies.

The Nicks fanatic in me imagines an era when "Secret Love" might have soared up the charts to the point where even I'd get sick of it to the point I've gotten sick of "Landslide" or the studio version of "Stand Back." And that's zooming for the skip button as fast as my 30-something fingers can go sick of those songs.

As for Red Velvet Car, I bought it off iTunes, even though I don't consider myself a dyed in the wool Heart fan the way Heartboy is, for instance. But of the songs on that record, the two I play the most often are "There You Go" (and yes, I *know* it isn't Stevie singing the harmonies, but it sounds so much like her that I imagine it's her) and "WTF". I can see myself playing "Hey You" if I'm in the right mood, but having only one song burrow into my music playing brain means the rest of the record isn't earth-shattering.

To me, if IYD sells well among Stevie's fan base and draws in any new audience, or at least earns critical acclaim, that will make it a success. Success for IYD won't be bucking the odds and going double-platinum. Success will be making a record that we as fans will be proud to play even if people ask "who's he" when we mention the name Stevie Nicks.

I have to say that 2011 mirrors the 70s sales wise. It used to big thing in the 70s to get a Gold Record. Not many people could even achieve Gold Status. I think that if Stevie gets a gold record, record execs will conisder it a big success.

Radio is Pre-Programmed
 

Most radio stations are pre-programmed now, and often broadcast across various markets. In many instances, some of the DJs are not even sitting in the same city as they are being heard (and DJs do not pick songs to play any longer, they just banter and do spots.) Thus, this new age way of doing radio spelled the end to most song requests from local listeners.

More than likely, Stevie's new music will be heard on satellite stations and online radio. I suspect we may also hear a tune or two being played over the speakers in movie theaters (prior to the movie) and in lounges. With WB long reach into other media, her songs could end up on a TV show or movie soundtrack too.

I think her better bets for "success" with IYD is great reviews and possibly Grammy nominations for 2012. Maybe a guest stint on AI or Glee. I suspect total CD sales will be in the 150-250K range.

I still don't understand why people are so hung up on "hit singles" and "gold albums." Those are not indicators of anything worth caring about. For IYD to do as well as TISL is about as close to "hit status" as she can be expected to get. She's almost 63 years old, and people over 30 (especially women) simply do not get played on the radio, or have hit singles or albums. Again, those are not indicators of good music. The fact that a song referencing plastic bags in the wind went to #1 kinda says it all to me.

Kind of like the movie forest gump. Kept referencing a feather in the wind.

Here is why "people are so hung up" over this:

-A hit album for Stevie would validate her hard work and efforts on this project.

-A hit album means WB will try to keep her on their roster.

-A hit album means Stevie will feel motivated to keep making more music.

-A hit album leads to better attendance at concerts, which means more Stevie concerts and tours.

We all have suffered dearly when Mama feels unmotivated and uninspired to create new music. Don't you want more new Stevie music and tours? Isn't that something to get worked up about? I would hate to see her release this (hopefully) wonderful album and then watch it nosedive into obscurity upon release. It's in all of our besst interests to make this album into a hit.

I'm going to directly answer the question and say "No."

Those artists were popular in the mid-to-late 90's because they were the voices of that generation. I was 20 in the summer of 1994, and you could not get away from Crow's "All I Wanna Do (Is Have Some Fun)" or Sarah McLachlan's "Posession" on the radio. It was everywhere, and the people listeing to and buying that music were the 16-22 crowd - my friends. Alanis was the -IT- girl all through 1995. Tori Amos was huge with Boys For Pele, and Under The Pink before that. We were -way- into our own angst and melodrama.

Part of this is simply the shift in musical tastes. Through the late 80's and early 90's, many of the female artists on the radio were fairly poppy in terms of sound and style, and the mid 90's brought a shift in sound that appealed to a younger crowd. The music of the mid-90's was generally more serious and the lyrics spoke to the personal trials that many young people were going through - we wanted to hear songs about lost love and deception, not songs about dancing in the steets or shaking our booties to the Conga. Good grief - remember Expose and Bananarama? My friends and I laughed at the older (and by older I mean those who were 26-32, lol) people listening to Gloria Estefan and Janet Jackson. Like, get with the times!

I guess what I'm saying is that these days the trends in popular music by female artists are with R&B, hip-hop and dance-pop. Thats' why the mega sellers continue to be Gaga, Beyonce, Britney and others like them....but I think that by the end of this decade we'll see another shift in music. Teenaged fans and early 20-somethings set the musical trends we hear on the radio. As they grow older, the trends they helped drive become part of the past as another musical trend moves in. We get older and forget to follow every word spoken by our musical heroes. We forget they might still even make music, and sales decline to abysmal numbers.

Just like the hair bands of the 80's. The world changed forever when Smells Like Teen Spirit hit the radio waves. By 1994 the glam rockers were jokes from an earlier era....much like many people these days consider Stevie to be...and Janet...and Madonna, Sarah, Tori, Kate, Heart. It never ends - someday Britney and Gaga and Adele and Florence & The Machine will be has-beens too, who can't sell more than a couple hundred thousand albums on their best years. There are rare exceptions but Stevie is not one of them and the generation that Stevie represented is far from being the generation setting musical trends.

But I'm a fan for life.

it motivates her and keeps her going, and it also motivates her record company to champion her

Speaking of Heart and 'Red Velvet Car', the band is selling the CD on their web site for only $10, and $25 for an autographed copy:

http://www.heart-music.com/store/

Nice if Stevie does likewise when 'IYD' comes out, or at least do another 'Barnes and Noble' signing. :]