The Ledge

The Ledge (http://ledge.fleetwoodmac.net/index.php)
-   Chit Chat (http://ledge.fleetwoodmac.net/forumdisplay.php?f=9)
-   -   A Ledgie wants to know: Economy Edition (http://ledge.fleetwoodmac.net/showthread.php?t=35467)

HejiraNYC 03-17-2008 08:15 AM

A Ledgie wants to know: Economy Edition
 
Oil is at record highs, gold is at record highs, the U.S. dollar is at record lows against the Euro, inflation is out of control yet incomes are flat, unemployment is spiking upward, housing values are tanking, the U.S. banking system is on the verge of collapse, house foreclosures are way up, the national debt is nearing 9 trillion dollars, jobs are being exported, there is an unending war costing U.S. taxpayers $12,000,000,000 per month, etc.

How is everyone weathering this economic *****storm? Business as usual? Cutting back? Better than ever? On the edge of financial ruin? A Ledgie wants to know!

strandinthewind 03-17-2008 08:30 AM

Fortunately, my job is mostly immune from economic changes - knock on wood.

I got rid of my house a year or so ago and I have no car anymore (I use zip car) because I am trying, as you know, to move to Manhattan. So, I think the economic downturn could actually help me there in that rents could be lowered or effectively lowered as a result.

I have, however, lost a bundle in my 401(k) and such. But, history demonstrates that a diversified portfolio, over the long run, is fairly safe - and I am not retiring anytime soon, much to my regret.

Of course, like Vera Charles - I spend way more than I make. I need to marry well (again :cool: )

How are you?

SuzeQuze 03-17-2008 08:42 AM

I'm buying a foreclosure (condo) so I'm benefitting from the downturn. Which I hope does not continue downward. I bought a Miata in Nov which is not as good on gas as my Toyota was but that is the only con of that car. It is awesome and I love it. It gets decent gas mileage, the Toyota's mileage was just extraordinary. But I drove that baby into the ground after 211k miles. To buy the condo I liquidated my 401k. It's been flat anyway and I figured this calculated risk would pay off. We shall see. The appraiser thought the condo, at its price, was a no brainer to buy. Exactly what I think. So it's all good.

As far as employment we are also mostly immune to a downturn. I just got a raise actually. In '01 I was laid off so I know what it's like to be negatively impacted during an economic slump. It sucks and I feel for any of you suffering this way.

JazmenFlowers 03-17-2008 08:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HejiraNYC (Post 746909)
Oil is at record highs, gold is at record highs, the U.S. dollar is at record lows against the Euro, inflation is out of control yet incomes are flat, unemployment is spiking upward, housing values are tanking, the U.S. banking system is on the verge of collapse, house foreclosures are way up, the national debt is nearing 9 trillion dollars, jobs are being exported, there is an unending war costing U.S. taxpayers $12,000,000,000 per month, etc.

How is everyone weathering this economic *****storm? Business as usual? Cutting back? Better than ever? On the edge of financial ruin? A Ledgie wants to know!

I've really been paying attention to everything you mention. this morning they talked about one investment firm dropping like 93% this morning. it's all rather scary. luckily, I'm doing well. I hate my job so the fact that the job market is in the toilet isn't fun, but at least my job is stable and I'm pretty secure. I make good money, have a nice home and a nice car and I'm able to pay my bills. I just paid off my HUGE credit card so that's even better. I still have a few small cards that I really should pay off. like everyone else though, I spend way too much on trips and clothes and crap.

HejiraNYC 03-17-2008 08:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by strandinthewind (Post 746911)
Fortunately, my job is mostly immune from economic changes - knock on wood.

I got rid of my house a year or so ago and I have no car anymore (I use zip car) because I am trying, as you know, to move to Manhattan. So, I think the economic downturn could actually help me there in that rents could be lowered or effectively lowered as a result.

I have, however, lost a bundle in my 401(k) and such. But, history demonstrates that a diversified portfolio, over the long run, is fairly safe - and I am not retiring anytime soon, much to my regret.

Of course, like Vera Charles - I spend way more than I make. I need to marry well (again :cool: )

How are you?

I *think* my job is also mostly immune from the whims of the economy; however, I never take it for granted. I recently switched to a new position, but it's located in NJ :eek: :eek: :eek:. Between gas and the $8 Holland Tunnel toll, my commuting expenses are astronomical. However, now I don't need to pay for a parking garage space since I am in my car almost every day. That should save $315 per month. Plus I get to shop more frequently in NJ, where the prices and sales tax are lower.

I don't even look at my 401(k) statements anymore :eek:. However, despite the online insistence that I increase the percentage invested in stock annuities, I have fortunately diversified into foreign market funds and bond-backed funds.

Food is a bit more expensive, but it's all relative. Between Trader Joes and Chinatown (and not eating meat), I actually spend much less than most people.

I hate to admit it, but I find the bloodbath on Wall Street to be well-deserved and a long time coming. Schadenfreude is my middle name. They have been so careless and irresponsible with other people's money, and they have paid themselves obscene amounts of money. Moral hazard? What's that? They will make a killing if the market is up, and the government is going to bail them out (as they are right now) if the market is down. It's all-win for them. And when you have so many people making such obscene amounts of money concentrated in a single area, you get the Manhattan real estate market, which is pretty much untouchable by the middle-middle class. When all of these arrogant douchebags on Wall St. finally get laid off, fined or imprisoned, only then will Manhattan return to being an interesting place full of artists, regular families and, heaven forbid, diversity. As of late Manhattan has been all about black Town Cars, banks, Starbucks, suits and $15 cocktails. The revolution is finally here, thank Buddah!

As for spending... I'm still working on my house. :eek: That's where all my money goes. This spring I have to get down to landscaping, decking and maybe even a pool...

strandinthewind 03-17-2008 09:18 AM

I think the fall of Wall Street can be nothing but a bad thing in that if that happens, the US and world will suffer. As for the large salaries, I am not opposed to them becuase that is what the market is paying. Now, if they break the law, that is another thing.

As for the housing market tanking - housing prices overall in the US have fallen, but not by huge amounts. That will change though if a few things happen.

The first is no matter how much you owe on your house or how much the value of your house has fallen, it is all academic until you have to sell the house. In other words, as long as you make the payment, you likely will ride out any decline in value that likely will go up again.

The second is right now, only seven or so percent of houses are in forclosure. That is a relatively high number but it is no staggering enough to drive housing prices down but a few percentage points overall - though some areas will be effected more. If, however, that foreclosure number gets to, say 15-20 percent, then I think housing prices and values will spiral to over 50% or so. This is because the market will be flooded with product and not enough qualified buyers. In layman's terms, it will be a fire sale. I do not see the Feds letting that happen though. In reality, the bankruptcy laws likely will prevent that as well. If you cannot make your house note right now because it along with the average credit card debt is too much, the smart thing to so likely is to declare bankruptcy. A Chapter 7 will wipe out all unsecured debt like credit cards and you can keep your house and possibly renegotiate the terms of the mortgage, though that is very hard to do now, but likely will be easier as this crisis moves on. A Chatper 13 plan will not wipe out your debt, but it will exclude your house from the plan and you pay anything remaining to the creditors, which can be as little as 25% - over a five year period. Yes, bankruptcy is a harsh option and your credit is ruined for awhile (but certainly not forever, esp. if you make a good salary) - but, it is no worse than losing your house in a foreclosure and defaulting on the credit cards as well.

In the end, during the last part of the 90's the tech bubble caused havoc and many of the largest companies in the US imploded, causing massive layoffs and investors to lose trillions. The economy bounced back (ironically, mostly though housing) then and it will again.

So, in the end, pay cash for your stuff and make your mortgage and you will be fine.

strandinthewind 03-17-2008 09:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HejiraNYC (Post 746919)
. . . As for spending... I'm still working on my house. :eek: That's where all my money goes. This spring I have to get down to landscaping, decking and maybe even a pool...

You do realize that the mere though that you are builing a cool new house with a pool is as repugnant to some (arguably the very poor) as the Wall Street excess are respugnant to you :shrug: So, in the end, I say as long as someone is not breaking the law, I do not begrudge them for making millions, or, in our case, a good salarythat affords some luxuries.

rubytuesday 03-17-2008 09:31 AM

I'm not in the Us but there has been a wave of economic stability. People in there 30s are expecting and a lot are getting what their parents generation had to work their lives for. I just think that there has to be a market crash in the near future. These things don't keep going up or maintaining that level forever. It seems like a matter of when and then all these people whose jobs supposedly aren't affected, those enjoying the good wave will suddenly find their vacation cut short.

SuzeQuze 03-17-2008 09:35 AM

Strand I think he was just speaking to the vapid greed that many stockbrokers and other business people have been justifying for years. People should be well-paid in a lucrative business. But they have to have some ethics. It's just a law of the universe, lack of humility will be corrected.

As far as why my job is sort of immune to downturn, we sell textbooks largely to universities and high schools. It would take extreme circumstances for those markets to dry up, which I hope we don't see.

strandinthewind 03-17-2008 09:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rubytuesday (Post 746929)
I'm not in the Us but there has been a wave of economic stability. People in there 30s are expecting and a lot are getting what their parents generation had to work their lives for . . . .

I think you hit on the main issue. Society in general and I suggest not just in the US (though perhaps more so here who knows) wants everything now. I think many of these people bought houses they knew they could not afford even before their payments went up with interest rates. I know many people who bought too expensive a house when others that were less expensive were available and then they pay $40,000 a year for their two kids to go to private schools and they have $40,000 in credit card debt because they cannot do without or make due. I think we all have some of this drama in our lives, but others seem to go further.

Note - there are many hard working conservative people who are losing their houses through no real fault of their own. I am not talking about them.

strandinthewind 03-17-2008 09:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SuzeQuze (Post 746931)
Strand I think he was just speaking to the vapid greed that many stockbrokers and other business people have been justifying for years. People should be well-paid in a lucrative business. But they have to have some ethics. It's just a law of the universe, lack of humility will be corrected . . . .

But, if someone is making that money legally, then how is that any different then what we do every day to make that money. Yes, we certainly do not make that much money, but what we make and how we spend it would seem just as awful and immoral to someone living in a box under a bridge :shrug: Moreover, many argue school books should be free and certainly no profit should be made off of them. I am not saying this personally. I am just saying that if you judge others, then you cannot be pissed when someone judges you :shrug:

SuzeQuze 03-17-2008 09:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by strandinthewind (Post 746934)
But, if someone is making that money legally, then how is that any different then what we do every day to make that money. Yes, we certainly do not make that much money, but what we make and how we spend it would seem just as awful and immoral to someone living in a box under a bridge :shrug:

I don't know that that is true. I haven't spoken to anyone under a bridge lately. I just mean that if financiers are doing shady things to inflate stocks and fleecing the little guys it's just bullsh*t.

strandinthewind 03-17-2008 09:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SuzeQuze (Post 746935)
I don't know that that is true. I haven't spoken to anyone under a bridge lately. I just mean that if financiers are doing shady things to inflate stocks and fleecing the little guys it's just bullsh*t.

I agree, if they are doing something illegal, they should be in jail.

HejiraNYC 03-17-2008 09:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by strandinthewind (Post 746925)
I think the fall of Wall Street can be nothing but a bad thing in that if that happens, the US and world will suffer.

I think Wall Street, if not the U.S. economy as a whole, has been like the emperor's new clothes. The U.S. dollar (which has not been backed by the gold standard for a long time), combined with the lack of a manufacturing base, has really been held aloft by speculation and the notion that it is the de facto exchange currency due to its relative stability. That notion is drawing to a close as investors become wary of the true value of the dollar, combined with the emerging super-economies in Asia and the lack of confidence due to what I believe are some hasty, irresponsible interest rate cuts. In a nutshell, why would you have faith in a monetary policy that insists that you simply crank up the printing presses every time there is a tightness in credit.

Quote:

As for the large salaries, I am not opposed to them becuase that is what the market is paying. Now, if they break the law, that is another thing.
There is the law, there are ethics, and then there is common decency. None of these are regulating the behaviors on Wall Street. How can you break the law when there aren't that many laws to break in the first place? Wall Street created this mess by borrowing money recklessly and lending money to anyone who can fog a mirror (which in turn caused the housing buble). They packaged these liar loans into securities that they deceptivelyresold as "AAA" rating at premium prices, paid themselves handsomely, and basically did nothing except pay themselves even more when it all came out in the wash. These securities ended up not being worth the paper they were printed on. But instead of taking responsibility for their own reckless, irresponsible behavior, they called on the U.S. government, i.e., the U.S. taxpayers to bail them out. And the bailout is now just beginning to the tune of hundreds of billions of dollars. We are left holding the bag while these amoral criminals are riding off into the sunset with their golden parachutes. I don't know how anyone can find this anything less than outrageous.

Quote:

As for the housing market tanking - housing prices overall in the US have fallen, but not by huge amounts. That will change though if a few things happen.
Some markets like Las Vegas, Phoenix, San Diego and Miami are already down by as much as 25%. And we are just getting started. Unfortunately New York has been able to fend off the housing crash so far, but I don't see how much longer the party can last here.

Quote:

The first is no matter how much you owe on your house or how much the value of your house has fallen, it is all academic until you have to sell the house.
Agreed, aka, "mark-to-market."

Quote:

In other words, as long as you make the payment, you likely will ride out any decline in value that likely will go up again.
On an inflation-adjusted basis, it will be decades, if ever, before prices reach this level again.

Quote:

The second is right now, only seven or so percent of houses are in forclosure. That is a relatively high number but it is no staggering enough to drive housing prices down but a few percentage points overall - though some areas will be effected more.
That is actually an incredibly high percentage; the areas that had the highest subprime loans and/or speculation will be pummeled.

Quote:

If, however, that foreclosure number gets to, say 15-20 percent, then I think housing prices and values will spiral to over 50% or so. This is because the market will be flooded with product and not enough qualified buyers. In layman's terms, it will be a fire sale. I do not see the Feds letting that happen though.
But what can the Fed do besides cutting interest rates (which do not necessarily correspond to mortgage interest rates)? They're running out of wiggle room before cutting all the way down to 0%.

Quote:

In reality, the bankruptcy laws likely will prevent that as well. If you cannot make your house note right now because it along with the average credit card debt is too much, the smart thing to so likely is to declare bankruptcy. A Chapter 7 will wipe out all unsecured debt like credit cards and you can keep your house and possibly renegotiate the terms of the mortgage, though that is very hard to do now, but likely will be easier as this crisis moves on. A Chatper 13 plan will not wipe out your debt, but it will exclude your house from the plan and you pay anything remaining to the creditors, which can be as little as 25% - over a five year period. Yes, bankruptcy is a harsh option and your credit is ruined for awhile (but certainly not forever, esp. if you make a good salary) - but, it is no worse than losing your house in a foreclosure and defaulting on the credit cards as well.
I think the tendency is for people who are underwater on their mortgages, i.e., they owe more than the house is worth, is simply to mail in the keys and walk away, credit score be damned. Although truly ethical people would choose to stay and pay down a loan commitment, regardless of the value of the property, a shocking number of people don't care about values and responsibility. If the value of the property goes up, great. If it goes down, it ain't my problem so I'm turning in the keys.

Quote:

In the end, during the last part of the 90's the tech bubble caused havoc and many of the largest companies in the US imploded, causing massive layoffs and investors to lose trillions. The economy bounced back (ironically, mostly though housing) then and it will again.
The most recent run-up post 9/11 is unprecedented in U.S. history. It was clearly unsustainable. It really is time to pay the Piper.

Quote:

So, in the end, pay cash for your stuff and make your mortgage and you will be fine.
But that's not the American way! We've been in a negative savings rate for the past couple of years...

strandinthewind 03-17-2008 09:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HejiraNYC (Post 746941)
. . . There is the law, there are ethics, and then there is common decency. None of these are regulating the behaviors on Wall Street. How can you break the law when there aren't that many laws to break in the first place? Wall Street created this mess by borrowing money recklessly and lending money to anyone who can fog a mirror (which in turn caused the housing buble). They packaged these liar loans into securities that they deceptivelyresold as "AAA" rating at premium prices, paid themselves handsomely, and basically did nothing except pay themselves even more when it all came out in the wash. These securities ended up not being worth the paper they were printed on. But instead of taking responsibility for their own reckless, irresponsible behavior, they called on the U.S. government, i.e., the U.S. taxpayers to bail them out. And the bailout is now just beginning to the tune of hundreds of billions of dollars. We are left holding the bag while these amoral criminals are riding off into the sunset with their golden parachutes. I don't know how anyone can find this anything less than outrageous . . . .

All of what you say is illegal :shrug: Interestingly, so is taking a mortage you know you cannot pay :shrug:

Here is a cool article fromwww. nytimes.com:

February 12, 2008
Mortgage Crisis Spreads Past Subprime Loans
By VIKAS BAJAJ and LOUISE STORY
The credit crisis is no longer just a subprime mortgage problem.

As home prices fall and banks tighten lending standards, people with good, or prime, credit histories are falling behind on their payments for home loans, auto loans and credit cards at a quickening pace, according to industry data and economists.

The rise in prime delinquencies, while less severe than the one in the subprime market, nonetheless poses a threat to the battered housing market and weakening economy, which some specialists say is in a recession or headed for one.

Until recently, people with good credit, who tend to pay their bills on time and manage their finances well, were viewed as a bulwark against the economic strains posed by rising defaults among borrowers with blemished, or subprime, credit.

“This collapse in housing value is sucking in all borrowers,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Economy.com.

Like subprime mortgages, many prime loans made in recent years allowed borrowers to pay less initially and face higher adjustable payments a few years later. As long as home prices were rising, these borrowers could refinance their loans or sell their properties to pay off their mortgages. But now, with prices falling and lenders clamping down, homeowners with solid credit are starting to come under the same financial stress as those with subprime credit.

“Subprime was a symptom of the problem,” said James F. Keegan, a bond portfolio manager at American Century Investments, a mutual fund company. “The problem was we had a debt or credit bubble.”

The bursting of that bubble has led to steep losses across the financial industry. American International Group said on Monday that auditors found it may have understated losses on complex financial instruments linked to mortgages and corporate loans.

The running turmoil is also stirring fears that some hedge funds may run into trouble. At the end of September, nearly 4 percent of prime mortgages were past due or in foreclosure, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

That was the highest rate since the group started tracking prime and subprime mortgages separately in 1998. The delinquency and foreclosure rate for all mortgages, 7.3 percent, is higher than at any time since the group started tracking that data in 1979, largely as a result of the surge in subprime lending during the last few years.

An example of the spreading credit crisis is seen in Don Doyle, a computer engineer at Lockheed Martin who makes a six-figure income and had a stellar credit score in 2004, when he refinanced his home in Northern California to take cash out to pay for his daughter’s college tuition.

Mr. Doyle, 52, is now worried that he will have to file for bankruptcy, because he cannot afford to make the higher variable payments on his mortgage, and he cannot sell his home for more than his $740,000 mortgage.

“The whole plan was to get out” before his rate reset, he said. “Now I am caught. I can’t sell my house. I’m having a hard time refinancing. I’ve avoided bankruptcy for months trying to pull this out of my savings.”

The default rate for prime mortgages is still far lower than for subprime loans, about 24 percent of which are delinquent or in foreclosure. Some economists note that slightly more than a third of American homeowners have paid off their mortgages completely. This group is generally more affluent and contributes more to consumer spending and the economy relative to its size.

Unlike subprime borrowers, who tend to have lower incomes and fewer assets, prime borrowers have greater means to restructure their debt if they lose jobs or encounter other financial challenges. The recent reductions in short term interest rates by the Federal Reserve should also help by reducing the reset rate for adjustable loans.

Still, economists say the rate cuts and the $168 billion fiscal stimulus package are unlikely to make a significant dent in the large debts weighing on many Americans, because banks have tightened lending standards and expected rebates from the government will not cover most house payments.

The problems are most acute in areas that experienced a big boom in housing — California, the Southwest, Florida and other coastal markets — and in the Midwest, which is suffering from job losses in the manufacturing sector.

And it is not just first-mortgage default rates that are rising. About 5.7 percent of home equity lines of credit were delinquent or in default at the end of last year, up from 4.5 percent a year earlier, according to Moody’s Economy.com and Equifax, the credit bureau.

About 7.1 percent of auto loans were in trouble, up from 6.1 percent. Personal bankruptcy filings, which fell significantly after a 2005 federal law made it harder to wipe out debts in bankruptcy, are starting to inch up.

On Monday, Fitch Ratings, the debt rating firm, reported that credit card companies wrote off 5.4 percent of their prime card balances in January, up from 4.3 percent a year ago. The so-called charge-off rate is still lower than before the 2005 law went into effect.

Banks are responding to the rise in delinquencies by capping home equity lines of credit in areas with falling real estate prices. A few credit card companies have also moved to reduce the credit limits of customers they deem more risky.

Bank of America, Citigroup, Countrywide Financial, JPMorgan Chase, Washington Mutual and Wells Fargo are expected to announce on Tuesday at the Treasury Department that they will offer both prime and subprime borrowers who are more than three months behind a chance to halt foreclosure proceedings for 30 days and work out new loan terms.

In a conference call with analysts in December, Kenneth Lewis, the chief executive of Bank of America, said more borrowers appear to be giving up on their homes as prices fall, noting a “change in social attitudes toward default.”

“You don’t mind making a $2,000 payment when the house is going up” in value, said Steve Walsh, a mortgage broker in Scottsdale, Arizona, who has seen several clients walk away from their homes because they couldn’t refinance or sell. “When it’s going down, it becomes a weight around your neck, it becomes an anchor.”

Home prices in the North Las Vegas neighborhood of Brenda Harris, a technology analyst at a casino company, have fallen 20 percent to 30 percent. The builder who sold her a new three-bedroom home on Pink Flamingos Place for about $392,000 in 2006 is now listing similar properties for $314,000. A larger house a block down from Ms. Harris was recently listed online for $310,000.

But Ms. Harris does not want to leave her home. She estimates that she has spent close to $40,000 on her property, about half for a down payment and much of the rest on a deck and landscaping.

“I’m not behind in my payments, but I’m trying to prevent getting behind,” Ms. Harris said. “I don’t want to ruin my credit.”

In addition to the declining value of her home, Ms. Harris, 53, will soon be hit with a sharply higher house payment. She has an option adjustable-rate mortgage, a loan that allows borrowers to pay less than the interest and principal due every month. The unpaid interest gets added to the principal balance. She is making the minimum monthly payments due on her loan, about $2,400.

But she knows she will not be able to pay the $3,400 needed to cover her interest and principal, which she will be required to pay once her loan balance reaches 115 percent of her starting balance. And under the terms of her loan, which was made by Countrywide Financial, she would have to pay a prepayment penalty of about $40,000 if she chose to refinance or sell her home before May 2009.

She said that she now wishes she had taken a traditional fixed-rate loan when she bought the home. At the time, she asked for a loan that could be refinanced after one year without penalty. She said her broker had told her a week before the closing that the penalty would extend until May 2009 and that she reluctantly agreed because she had already started moving.

A nonprofit community group, Acorn Housing, is trying to broker a modification of Ms. Harris’s loan. In a statement Friday, Countrywide said the company had been in touch with Ms. Harris and would work with her.

Credit counselors say many borrowers like Ms. Harris were cajoled or pushed into risky mortgages that they never had the ability to repay.

Others disregarded warnings about complex loans because they wanted to be a part of the housing boom, which like the technology stock bubble lured people in with seemingly instant and risk-free profits, said Mory Brenner, vice president of Financial Firebird Corporation, a company based in Pittsfield, Mass., that publishes consumer debt information and refers borrowers to credit counselors.

“I’d say, Let me tell you something, this is crazy,” Mr. Brenner said. “You cannot afford this house, even if nothing happens and rates stay as low as they are today. And the response would be: I don’t care.”

Lenders extended credit to people without verifying their incomes and allowing them to make little or no down payments.

But borrowers like Mr. Doyle, the engineer in Northern California, say they are victims of their circumstances — housing prices collapsed and lending standards tightened just as they needed to sell or refinance.

In refinancing their home in 2004, Mr. Doyle and his wife were doing what millions of other homeowners did in the last decade — tapping into the rising value of their homes for home improvements, paying off credit card debt, college tuition and for other spending.

The Doyles took advantage of the housing boom by refinancing their home nearly every year since they bought it in 1995 for $275,000. Until their most recent loan they never had a problem making their payments. They invested much of the money in shares of companies that subsequently went bankrupt.

Still, Mr. Doyle does not regret refinancing in 2004. “My goal was clear: I wanted to help my daughter go through college,” he said. “It wasn’t like it was for us.”

strandinthewind 03-17-2008 10:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HejiraNYC (Post 746941)
. . . combined with the emerging super-economies in Asia . . . .

Talk about an economy making and generating tons of rev. right now but headed for a mega meltdown :eek:

HejiraNYC 03-17-2008 10:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by strandinthewind (Post 746927)
You do realize that the mere though that you are builing a cool new house with a pool is as repugnant to some (arguably the very poor) as the Wall Street excess are respugnant to you :shrug: So, in the end, I say as long as someone is not breaking the law, I do not begrudge them for making millions, or, in our case, a good salarythat affords some luxuries.

Well, I can see how that could be repugnant to some. But here is the deal... It was no accident or stroke of luck. I am not a trustfunder. I've been a saver all of my life. I have always lived beneath my means. I am a single income person who has had to compete financially in a two-income world. I have not engaged in legally or morally questionable practices to make money, nor have I earned my money at the detriment of others.

I do not begrudge anyone their fortunes as long as they have worked hard and honestly. If Wall Streeters were indeed creating real wealth and revenue. Fine. But in the end, it was all bull*****. A shame. A crock. They made up their own rules, got caught, and now they are expecting to be bailed out. That I truly find "repugnant."

strandinthewind 03-17-2008 10:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HejiraNYC (Post 746941)
I . . . On an inflation-adjusted basis, it will be decades, if ever, before prices reach this level again . . . .

In 20 years, most mortgages in effect now will be paid off or will have balances at 90% or so of the original loan value. And, if you can, always add $100 or so to each mortgage payment. This will save you thousands of dollars depending on the size of the loan, etc.

strandinthewind 03-17-2008 10:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HejiraNYC (Post 746946)
Well, I can see how that could be repugnant to some. But here is the deal... It was no accident or stroke of luck. I am not a trustfunder. I've been a saver all of my life. I have always lived beneath my means. I am a single income person who has had to compete financially in a two-income world. I have not engaged in legally or morally questionable practices to make money, nor have I earned my money at the detriment of others.

I do not begrudge anyone their fortunes as long as they have worked hard and honestly. If Wall Streeters were indeed creating real wealth and revenue. Fine. But in the end, it was all bull*****. A shame. A crock. They made up their own rules, got caught, and now they are expecting to be bailed out. That I truly find "repugnant."


Then we agree in the context of the subprime mess being a sham :cool: I do also, however, fault consumers who made loans knowing they could never pay them back. They are just as bad as the lenders in my book.

Also - I think your actions last weekend in the meat packing district cast a doubtful light on your statement "I have not engaged in legally or morally questionable practices to make money" :wavey:

HejiraNYC 03-17-2008 10:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by strandinthewind (Post 746948)
Then we agree in the context of the subprime mess being a sham :cool: I do also, however, fault consumers who made loans knowing they could never pay them back. They are just as bad as the lenders in my book.

Also - I think your actions last weekend in the meat packing district cast a doubtful light on your statement "I have not engaged in legally or morally questionable practices to make money" :wavey:

Ah, I thought that was you getting mummified on the pool table. :lol: :eek: :eek:

FWIW, there is nothing in the Meatpacking District these days except high-end boutiques, high-end hotels, high-end restaurants and yuppie nightspots. The dream of Carrie Bradshaw and her ascerbic, cosmopolitan BFF's is alive and well.

HejiraNYC 03-17-2008 10:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by strandinthewind (Post 746948)
I do also, however, fault consumers who made loans knowing they could never pay them back. They are just as bad as the lenders in my book.

True... to a certain extent. How fast would you drive if there were no speed limits? How much would you borrow if there were no lending limits? How much would you repay if you were in over your head and there really weren't any major consequences if you defaulted? It's human nature to game the system... you give people too much rope and they will hang themselves. The fact is that the banks fudged the numbers, exploited every loophole and did whatever it took to lend money and make "revenue."

strandinthewind 03-17-2008 10:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HejiraNYC (Post 746951)
Ah, I thought that was you getting mummified on the pool table. :lol: :eek: :eek:

I beg your pardon, THAT incident was in the East Village and it was after midnight!

Quote:

Originally Posted by HejiraNYC (Post 746951)
FWIW, there is nothing in the Meatpacking District these days except high-end boutiques, high-end hotels, high-end restaurants and yuppie nightspots. The dream of Carrie Bradshaw and her ascerbic, cosmopolitan BFF's is alive and well.

Ugh - where are all the tranny hookers looking to make a 5 spot.

strandinthewind 03-17-2008 10:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HejiraNYC (Post 746954)
True... to a certain extent. How fast would you drive if there were no speed limits? How much would you borrow if there were no lending limits? How much would you repay if you were in over your head and there really weren't any major consequences if you defaulted? It's human nature to game the system... you give people too much rope and they will hang themselves. The fact is that the banks fudged the numbers, exploited every loophole and did whatever it took to lend money and make "revenue."

To a degree - the trick was they (the banks and everyone) did not see the end coming. No one of any relevance uttered a peep when times were good. And - many bought houses thinking they wqould never have to worry about the payment rising because they planned all along to sell them in three years for a profit.

But, each person must take account for themselves - a notion not accepted by many.

HejiraNYC 03-17-2008 10:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by strandinthewind (Post 746956)
I beg your pardon, THAT incident was in the East Village and it was after midnight!



Ugh - where are all the tranny hookers looking to make a 5 spot.

Why do you ask? Job hunting much? :wavey:

Christopher Street, despite the efforts of the community and police, remains about as skanky as ever, although not as much in the winter. But when the weather warms up, LaShonda and her cronies from East Orange will be back in force. No need to worry, there is job security in your line of work. :wavey:

David 03-17-2008 10:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by strandinthewind (Post 746911)
I have, however, lost a bundle in my 401(k) and such. But, history demonstrates that a diversified portfolio, over the long run, is fairly safe - and I am not retiring anytime soon, much to my regret.

My 401 hasn't done too poorly, considering ... although because I keep a huge chunk of it in high-growth stock funds, I've seen some ... ahem ... lower numbers the past few months. But I'm not terribly worried, & I'm certainly not going to reapportion to lower risk at this point. The trick is to have your money in the riskier funds BEFORE the market turns up again (which it will inevitably do). The same thing happened back in 2001-2002. Some of the greatest gains I made then (rivalling the early 1990s) were due to leaving the money in my favorite growth funds.

The cost of gas at the pump is high, but I don't have to drive much because I work at home. Groceries are higher & higher, which is very apparent at the checkout.

strandinthewind 03-17-2008 10:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HejiraNYC (Post 746960)
Why do you ask? Job hunting much? :wavey:

Christopher Street, despite the efforts of the community and police, remains about as skanky as ever, although not as much in the winter. But when the weather warms up, LaShonda and her cronies from East Orange will be back in force. No need to worry, there is job security in your line of work. :wavey:

Last I checked - you were crowding my corner which is going to get you cut in the future AND you were in a second hand tube top, which, frankly made you look like a boiled sausage - - OKKAAAAAYYYY!

strandinthewind 03-17-2008 10:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by David (Post 746962)
My 401 hasn't done too poorly, considering ... although because I keep a huge chunk of it in high-growth stock funds, I've seen some ... ahem ... lower numbers the past few months. But I'm not terribly worried, & I'm certainly not going to reapportion to lower risk at this point. The trick is to have your money in the riskier funds BEFORE the market turns up again (which it will inevitably do). The same thing happened back in 2001-2002. Some of the greatest gains I made then (rivalling the early 1990s) were due to leaving the money in my favorite growth funds.


Bingo - though getting out at the right time is key as well. I remember losing something like 23% in the late 90's OUCH!

Quote:

Originally Posted by David (Post 746962)
The cost of gas at the pump is high, but I don't have to drive much because I work at home. Groceries are higher & higher, which is very apparent at the checkout.

Fortunately, I have no car and when I use Zip Car (www.zipcar.com) they pay the gas. Also, I am on a diet - which helps as well :laugh:

HejiraNYC 03-17-2008 10:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by strandinthewind (Post 746963)
Last I checked - you were crowding my corner which is going to get you cut in the future AND you were in a second hand tube top, which, frankly made you look like a boiled sausage - - OKKAAAAAYYYY!

At least I could fit into my tube top. I'm not the one throwing a hissy-fit at Conway because Big Mama didn't make fishnets in my size. Mmmmkay, Viola Muffintop? :wavey:

strandinthewind 03-17-2008 10:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HejiraNYC (Post 746968)
At least I could fit into my tube top . . . .

Shoehorns aside - when they finally got you out it , they could have ended the Iraq war with the force of the "plumage" that popped out - like a the inside of a plane being sucked out of a small hole in a window :wavey:

SuzeQuze 03-17-2008 11:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by strandinthewind (Post 746943)
All of what you say is illegal :shrug: Interestingly, so is taking a mortage you know you cannot pay :shrug:

...

Most people aren't too bright and they'll take a mortgage if someone gives it to them without realizing they can't pay it. Not that they aren't still responsible, they are. The banks are moreso though IMO since they are the experts and know with certainty what can be paid and what cannot. Also, why would they want to give a mortgage someone cannot pay? That's financial suicide.

petep9000 03-17-2008 11:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HejiraNYC (Post 746919)
Schadenfreude is my middle name.

I thought that I was the only one who actually had that as a middle name. I know my mother says it's 'Vincent'...

But she's wrong.:nod:

strandinthewind 03-17-2008 11:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SuzeQuze (Post 746975)
. . . Also, why would they want to give a mortgage someone cannot pay? That's financial suicide.

Look at the appreciation of property values over the last ten, and IMO really almost 15 years. That is the answer. They (the banks and IMO the buyers) were specualting on the rise of property values. Again, who cares if the mortgage goes bad if you (the bank or pwner) can always sell the house and walk away with money as many many people did.

Again, there are many people who lost their jobs, got sick, etc. and could not pay their mortgage. I am not talking about those people.

DavidMn 03-17-2008 01:11 PM

Well, as far as finances go mine are in a heap of S**T, but that's through my own bad decsions so I have no one but myself to blame for that. I work in a grocery store as a cashier so I talk to people every day about how much higher prices are, especially on eggs. I would say what I've seen go up more than anything are eggs and flour. Flour makes sense because wheat prices are going up exponentially it seems. I saw a thing on CNn about how pizza parlors are really struggling because the price of their flour for dough is going up faster than they ever thought it would and theyre afraid to pass on too much to customers.

gldstwmn 03-17-2008 01:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HejiraNYC (Post 746909)
How is everyone weathering this economic *****storm? Business as usual? Cutting back? Better than ever? On the edge of financial ruin? A Ledgie wants to know!

I'm a mortgage broker, so I would say yes to all of the above including better than ever (mentally and physically). :lol:

HejiraNYC 03-17-2008 01:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DavidMn (Post 746999)
Well, as far as finances go mine are in a heap of S**T, but that's through my own bad decsions so I have no one but myself to blame for that. I work in a grocery store as a cashier so I talk to people every day about how much higher prices are, especially on eggs. I would say what I've seen go up more than anything are eggs and flour. Flour makes sense because wheat prices are going up exponentially it seems. I saw a thing on CNn about how pizza parlors are really struggling because the price of their flour for dough is going up faster than they ever thought it would and theyre afraid to pass on too much to customers.

I saw a segment on CNN about the burgeoning corn-based ethanol industry. Although the proponents insist that it is the green alternative fuel source of the future, as it turns out, the processing/refinement of ethanol creates even more carbon than burning fossil fuels (since the ethanol plants burn tons and tons of coal). Additionally, the return on energy investment is pathetically small- barely dougle-digit percentages. But most significantly, the corn used to create ethanol is cutting into the supply being used for food, hence corn-based products are way up. Ask any Mexican about the price of tortillas!

HejiraNYC 03-17-2008 02:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SuzeQuze (Post 746975)
Most people aren't too bright and they'll take a mortgage if someone gives it to them without realizing they can't pay it. Not that they aren't still responsible, they are. The banks are moreso though IMO since they are the experts and know with certainty what can be paid and what cannot. Also, why would they want to give a mortgage someone cannot pay? That's financial suicide.

Au contraire. On Wall Street, that's considered "revenue." Their balance sheets looked so good because they accounted for the full value of the (suicide) loans they made based on the assumption that they were going to be paid back in full. The banks didn't care whether or not the borrowers were actually going to pay back the loan; by the time any borrower could default, the loan would have already been collaterized into a "AAA" bond and resold to some greater fool at a hedge fund. The banks merely collected their huge commissions and moved on.

petep9000 03-17-2008 02:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HejiraNYC (Post 747005)
I saw a segment on CNN about the burgeoning corn-based ethanol industry. Although the proponents insist that it is the green alternative fuel source of the future, as it turns out, the processing/refinement of ethanol creates even more carbon than burning fossil fuels (since the ethanol plants burn tons and tons of coal). Additionally, the return on energy investment is pathetically small- barely dougle-digit percentages. But most significantly, the corn used to create ethanol is cutting into the supply being used for food, hence corn-based products are way up. Ask any Mexican about the price of tortillas!

You may be right about this, though I thought that a book I read a few months back called The Omnivore's Dilemma actually said that the corn used to make stuff like ethanol, animal feeds, food additives and chemicals was a tasteless, starchy, not-particularly-delicious variety. I might be wrong, I'd need to check out that corn chapter again. We dont' even know the half of how here in the US, corn now reigns supreme. This is a contributing reason why we have obesity in such a way now here. Manufactured and packaged foods are loaded with high-fructose corn syrup and corn solids and corn, corn corn. Which of course, becomes sugar, sugar, sugar once we eat it.
The farmers in the heartlands are heavily subsidized to raise corn, or soy. Industrial plants for our post-industrial age.

strandinthewind 03-17-2008 02:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HejiraNYC (Post 747006)
Au contraire. On Wall Street, that's considered "revenue." Their balance sheets looked so good because they accounted for the full value of the (suicide) loans they made based on the assumption that they were going to be paid back in full. The banks didn't care whether or not the borrowers were actually going to pay back the loan; by the time any borrower could default, the loan would have already been collaterized into a "AAA" bond and resold to some greater fool at a hedge fund. The banks merely collected their huge commissions and moved on.

I believe GAAP counts that as an asset. Rev. is when the payments are actually paid. Note - assets are based/valued on projected rev. Finally, the vast majority of loans are being paid back. I get that the numbers for foreclosures ae high and that is an awful thing, but over 90% are being paid :shrug:

Here is what I thought was a good explantion of AAA ratings

http://seekingalpha.com/article/6700...al-than-others

Here is another

http://www.bankstocks.com/article.asp?type=1&id=9881669

Finally the bond market has been the cause of most bad times.

strandinthewind 03-17-2008 02:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by petep9000 (Post 747010)
You may be right about this, though I thought that a book I read a few months back called The Omnivore's Dilemma actually said that the corn used to make stuff like ethanol, animal feeds, food additives and chemicals was a tasteless, starchy, not-particularly-delicious variety. I might be wrong, I'd need to check out that corn chapter again. We dont' even know the half of how here in the US, corn now reigns supreme. This is a contributing reason why we have obesity in such a way now here. Manufactured and packaged foods are loaded with high-fructose corn syrup and corn solids and corn, corn corn. Which of course, becomes sugar, sugar, sugar once we eat it.
The farmers in the heartlands are heavily subsidized to raise corn, or soy. Industrial plants for our post-industrial age.

The Omnivore's Dilemma - I love that book and, mind you, I LOVE meat :nod:

Also, on HFCS:

http://www.hfcsfacts.com/?gclid=CMyj...FQ4ZHgod11j56g

http://www.westonaprice.org/motherlinda/cornsyrup.html

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/02/bu...y/02syrup.html

I suggest avoiding it at all possible costs if you can. Of course, that means no ketchup unless you bring your own because most places serve Heinz, no soda pop, etc. So, most people are not going to do this.

HejiraNYC 03-17-2008 02:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by strandinthewind (Post 747013)
Of course, that means no ketchup unless you bring your own because most places serve Heinz, no soda pop, etc. So, most people are not going to do this.

I'm sure you can squeeze in a few packets of your own in your purse- amongst the packets of KY, condoms, chewing gum and lip gloss. :wavey:


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 12:45 PM.

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2026, vBulletin Solutions Inc.
© 1995-2003 Martin and Lisa Adelson, All Rights Reserved