Nader polling at 6 percent

[CarneVaca]

Nader is polling at 6 percent, which is interesting to me. I thought he would never even get 1 percent. But it's early and he just announced. Still, I think what this shows is that Kerry cannot win over a lot of the independents and the Dean supporters. That does not bode well for the Democrats' prospects.

www.commondreams.org/head...304-11.htm

One quarter of registered voters are neither Democrat nor Republican. If only we could get organized...

[darklinensuit]

Wow.

- Jake

[darklinensuit]

AP Poll: Bush, Kerry Are Tied in Race
36 minutes ago Add Top Stories - AP to My Yahoo!


By WILL LESTER, Associated Press Writer

WASHINGTON - John Kerry (news - web sites) and President Bush (news - web sites) are starting the general election campaign tied, according to an Associated Press poll, while independent Ralph Nader (news - web sites) is drawing enough support to make Democrats squirm.



The Republican incumbent had 46 percent support, Democrat Kerry had 45 percent and Nader, the 2000 Green Party candidate who entered the race last month, was at 6 percent in the survey conducted for the AP by Ipsos-Public Affairs.


Bush and the four-term Massachusetts senator, who emerged as the nominee Tuesday after a string of primary race wins over several rivals, have run close or Kerry has been ahead in most recent polls that did not include Nader.


Since Nader entered the race Feb. 22, campaign strategists and political analysts have been trying to assess the impact of another presidential bid by the consumer activist who is blamed by some Democrats for Al Gore (news - web sites)'s loss in 2000.


In the last presidential election, Nader was on the ballot in 43 states and Washington, D.C., garnering only 2.7 percent of the vote. But in Florida and New Hampshire, Bush won such narrow victories that had Gore received the bulk of Nader's votes in those states, he would have won the general election.


Exit polls from 2000 show that about half of Nader's voters would have backed Gore in a two-way race, far more than would have supported Bush. Nader dismisses the spoiler label.


While Nader's support in the AP-Ipsos poll was 6 percent, his backing in polls in 2000 fluctuated in the single digits — often at about 4 percent, but sometimes higher. This year, Nader is unlikely to get the Green Party's nomination and he faces a stiff challenge in getting his name on the ballot in the 50 states.


Kenneth Freeman, an 86-year-old retiree from New Smyrna Beach, Fla., who leans Democratic, was unhappy with Nader's presidential bid.


"Ralph Nader is fouling it all up," Freeman said. "He's taking votes away from the Democrats. I think he's on an ego trip."


Bush's job approval in the AP-Ipsos poll was 48 percent, with 49 percent disapproving — essentially the same as last month when 47 percent approved of his job performance.


His approval rating, which soared close to 90 percent after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks and remained high for months, has dipped to the lowest levels of his presidency in recent weeks.


Six in 10 said the country is on the wrong track, up from last month, while slightly more than one-third of those surveyed — 35 percent — said the country is headed in the right direction.


"We're 240-something days from Election Day. We've got a long way to go and expect it to be a close race throughout, no matter what the factors are," said Terry Holt, a spokesman for the Bush campaign.


The poll was conducted Monday through Wednesday as Kerry captured nine of 10 Super Tuesday elections and claimed the nomination. Nightly results suggested that Kerry did not get a bounce from winning the nomination.


"For all those who want to bring change to America, we need to remain united behind the Democratic nominee," said Kerry campaign spokeswoman Stephanie Cutter.


Kerry, who had solid backing from 28 percent of the voters, was strong among minorities, low-income people, singles, older voters and Catholics.


Bush, who had solid backing from 37 percent, did well among whites, men, Protestants, homeowners and suburban dwellers.





"I'm worried about the Democrats taking control," said Stephanie Rahaniotis, a Republican from Lynbrook, N.Y. She said after the Sept. 11 attacks she feels safer with Bush in charge and thinks Democrats will "divert our attention from the military."

In the poll, Nader was most likely to get the backing of young adults, and independents.

The AP-Ipsos poll of 771 registered voters was taken March 1-3 and had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.


- Jake

[strandinthewind]

EEK - but, I take solace in that fact that polls are essentially meaningless this early in that a lot could happen between now and then

[gldstwmn]

Originally posted by CarneVaca
Nader is polling at 6 percent, which is interesting to me. I thought he would never even get 1 percent. But it's early and he just announced. Still, I think what this shows is that Kerry cannot win over a lot of the independents and the Dean supporters. That does not bode well for the Democrats' prospects.

www.commondreams.org/head...304-11.htm

One quarter of registered voters are neither Democrat nor Republican. If only we could get organized...

If you look closely at that poll you'll see that the votes that Nader is getting are being taken from the Republican side. It certainly doesn't bode well for Bush. I think people are going to be very surprised by the margin that Bush will lose by this fall.

[Merf]

Yeah, it's still very early. 8 months till Election Day.

I think Nader's numbers will drop off by then when his supporters realize that they could quite possibly be handing Dubya another 4 years in office.

[CarneVaca]

Originally posted by Merf
Yeah, it's still very early. 8 months till Election Day.

I think Nader's numbers will drop off by then when his supporters realize that they could quite possibly be handing Dubya another 4 years in office.

Merf, that point is going to be made over and over. Just like Gore at the last minute realized Nader was gaining enormous popularity and proceeded to vilify the man. Gore ain't half the man Nader is.

A lot of Democrats and liberal independents will heed the call. They will vote for Kerry out of fear.

But I guess I have more faith in this country. I don't think four more years of Dubya would destroy us. If anything, it might at last reinvigorate the liberal wing to stand up and put an end to this dangerous slide to the right. If Kerry is elected, the slide to the right will slow down, but it will continue. Just as it did in the Clinton years. Mark my words.

[gldstwmn]

Originally posted by CarneVaca


A lot of Democrats and liberal independents will heed the call. They will vote for Kerry out of fear.

But I guess I have more faith in this country. I don't think four more years of Dubya would destroy us. If anything, it might at last reinvigorate the liberal wing to stand up and put an end to this dangerous slide to the right. If Kerry is elected, the slide to the right will slow down, but it will continue. Just as it did in the Clinton years. Mark my words.

Respectfully, bull****. Kerry is a liberal. They'll say he's not but he is. I think people will be pleasantly surprised at how good things turn out.
One other thing about Nader polling at 6%. The poll is assumptive of Nader getting on the ballot in all 50 states. We know that's not going to happen. Realistically, he will get 1-2% of the vote.

[GypsySorcerer]

Originally posted by gldstwmn
Respectfully, bull****. Kerry is a liberal. They'll say he's not but he is. I think people will be pleasantly surprised at how good things turn out.
One other thing about Nader polling at 6%. The poll is assumptive of Nader getting on the ballot in all 50 states. We know that's not going to happen. Realistically, he will get 1-2% of the vote.

Then how do you explain Kerry voting with Bush 70% of the time?

[gldstwmn]

Originally posted by GypsySorcerer
Then how do you explain Kerry voting with Bush 70% of the time?

Link? BTW, Bush doesn't "vote." He either signs it into law or he vetos it. Also, Bush has never vetoed anything they have put in front of him. Nice try.

[Johnny Stew]

Originally posted by CarneVaca
But I guess I have more faith in this country. I don't think four more years of Dubya would destroy us. If anything, it might at last reinvigorate the liberal wing to stand up and put an end to this dangerous slide to the right.

If he is re-elected, then I hope you're right.

I'm not as confident, since it seems that continued discrimination against homosexuals is pretty much an assurance, if Bush has another 4 years in office.

Just to use an example that hits closest to home for me.

[strandinthewind]

Originally posted by GypsySorcerer
Then how do you explain Kerry voting with Bush 70% of the time?

Because like pretty much all politicans, both of them are bought and paid for by the same people IMO. When did I get so cynical

[GypsySorcerer]

Originally posted by gldstwmn
Link? BTW, Bush doesn't "vote." He either signs it into law or he vetos it. Also, Bush has never vetoed anything they have put in front of him. Nice try.

Why would Bush veto anything put in front of him? Republicans control both Houses of Congress and they cave into him. No need to.

One look at Kerry's record will tell you that he votes for Bush's agenda quite frequently. Perhaps there is an explanation that you can share with us. I mean, it can't be that Kerry caters to the same people Bush does, can it?

Nah.

[gldstwmn]

Originally posted by GypsySorcerer

One look at Kerry's record will tell you that he votes for Bush's agenda quite frequently.
Nah.

Perhaps you could provide a link for your statement? If you're curious about Kerry's voting record, you might want to start here: www.johnkerry.com.

[gldstwmn]

http://money.cnn.com/2004/03/05/news...jobs/index.htm

Payrolls disappoint again

Gain of 21,000 falls far short of Wall Street forecasts; unemployment rate steady at 5.6 percent.

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - U.S. payrolls grew in February at a far slower pace than the prior month, the government said Friday, in a report that disappointed Wall Street expectations for the fourth month in a row.

The persistent weakness in the labor market means the Federal Reserve will probably hold interest rates at the lowest level in more than 40 years for longer than expected.


But that weakness has also led to the slowest pace of wage growth for workers in 18 years, the longest average unemployment duration in 20 years and could step up the pressure on President Bush as he runs for re-election.

Payrolls outside the farm sector grew by just 21,000 jobs in February, the Labor Department reported, compared with a downwardly revised gain of 97,000 in January. The unemployment rate held steady at 5.6 percent.

Economists, on average, had expected 125,000 new jobs and unemployment at 5.6 percent, according to Briefing.com.

"This is a terrible number," said Sung Won Sohn, chief economist at Wells Fargo. "The economic recovery is almost three years old, and the economy should be producing 200,000 to 300,000 jobs per month."