On to New Hampshire

[CarneVaca]

Iowa gave us an interesting turn of events. Some thoughts:

It's pretty clear people in Iowa didn't like Dean, and I believe a lot of people across the country feel the same way. He should have shown some humility in his speech last night, but instead seemed intent on giving his vocal chords a punishing stress test. Bad move.

John Kerry, who I think is a likable guy, is still hard to take seriously for me. I'm still puzzled by his doublespeak about the war. Furthermore, neither he nor Edwards had much to say about children living in poverty, health care and so forth until they decided to co-opt that from Dean. Edwards, "Mr. Positive," still strikes me as a lightweight.

Kerry, on the other hand, seems to have been studying the Gore campaign and came away with the wrong lessons. I saw him this morning on NBC saying one of the reasons he won was because he has run a positive campaign, yet he was sending mailers to Iowa voters attacking other candidates, Dean specifically. Already this morning his campaign sent an e-mail to voters in New Hampshire lambasting Clark for saying he is a Patriots fan. "In New England, he dons a Pats jersey, in Wisconsin it's the Packers," the e-mail read. "What will Wes wear in South Carolina today?" That's it, Senator, focus on the important themes.

As for Edwards having appeal in the South, some insiders are saying he is the one that worries Bush (or whoever is doing the thinking for him) the most. I think the Democrats should just write off the South. It's over, though they can still get Florida. The Democrats should concentrate on the growing non-Cuban Latino vote in Florida and in places like the Southwest and go after a couple big states with good ole traditional Democrat values to get the votes they need. The South always gets a lot of effort from Democrats, but lately it seems like wasted effort. Just being pragmatic here.

Lastly, Dean still has the most money and he still has a big following of rabid anti-war supporters. I don't see how Kerry or Edwards could get all those supporters.

Enter Clark. And hello New Hampshire.