Poll: Will Obama be re-elected in 2012?

[Nikolaj]

Just was wondering what anyone thinks may happen in 2012.
Will Obama be re-elected?
I'm trying to remember how to post a poll. Just Yes or No as options is all I'm trying to recall how to do.

[tilthefirefades]

I voted yes, and will I vote for him? Who knows right now. He has been such a disappointment to me personally. But I still absolutely love what he stands for.

[nailatixela]

Too far away to tell. I don't think he'd be re-elected today though.

[LukeA]

Originally Posted by nailatixela

Too far away to tell. I don't think he'd be re-elected today though.

Versus who? Many people are dissatisfied with Obama's first two years, but would they necessarily be more encouraged by ANYONE that is selected/vetted to be his opposition?

[nailatixela]

Originally Posted by LukeA

Versus who?

Presumably a republican who is against the big bad health care, wasteful "stimulus" and scary immigrants coming to our country. That seems to be the sentiment anyway of the republicans today and the generic republican is up big in the polls against the generic dem in the 2010 elections.

[louielouie2000]

I know you want this to only be yes or no, but I think it's a very interesting topic for discussion. Out of the 44 US presidents, only 10 incumbents have lost re-election... so Obama has that in his favor. Even if a president's specific policies are unpopular, Americans don't seem to like changing leadership in mid-cycle (George W Bush is a perfect example of this). I think Americans feel it would be an admission of weakness if they chose another president before the current one is term-limited. I think it's also common sentiment that presidents truly need 8 years to get anything done. That their hands are so tied by partisan politics the first 4 years, they can't accomplish anything.

There are several factors that will make the 2012 elections very interesting, though. Obama's election and subsequent policies have mobilized and galvanized the very bruised, splintered right wing. The Tea Party movement seems to be the 21st century renaissance of the Republican party. If the Republicans nominate someone who isn't business as usual for the '12 election, they have a good chance at unseating Obama. Obama also hasn't been terribly good at pleasing his own base. Another big factor will be the continued wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. The single biggest issue of the next election will be the economy, though. Unless some headway is made, Obama's got an uphill battle.

For what it's worth, I still think Obama will get another term. I feel America elected Obama as a signal they wanted to do things differently. His first term has been purely reactionary; I think Americans are still curious to see what Obama would do on offense vs defense.

[TrueFaith77]

My vote was wishful thinking. I actually believe he WILL be re-elected.

[LikeAWillow]

Originally Posted by louielouie2000

The Tea Party movement seems to be the 21st century renaissance of the Republican party. If the Republicans nominate someone who isn't business as usual for the '12 election, they have a good chance at unseating Obama.

I'm not sure if you're just free-flow thinking here or implying that a Tea Partier could unseat Obama. There is absolutely no way that a true moderate (and certainly not a moderate-democrat) voter would swing to the tea party, and it's the moderates that the Republicans need to court if they want a shot at this. Obama has angered progressives in his party by not being progressive enough as well, of course, but those men and women will certainly never vote R, so I'm not even going to count them. If we're going to talk about a new type of Republican winning, it will be a republican who is a social moderate but a fiscal conservative. This is not a Tea Party Republican

Another big factor will be the continued wars in Iraq

Erm

The single biggest issue of the next election will be the economy, though. Unless some headway is made, Obama's got an uphill battle.

He has the bail outs to fight an uphill battle against moreso than "the economy." I think the single biggest issue will be a blanket issue-- big government. He'll have to defend the bail outs, the health care reform, and, if it gets to that point, the education reform movement which is an all unto itself (for more, see the upcoming "Race to Nowhere" movie. As an early on Arne Duncan cheerleader, I'm so let down.)

For what it's worth, I still think Obama will get another term.

Agreed. Despite all of this ^, I wish that he wouldn't, but anyone else I would want can't run until we've got room for a different D on the ticket (oh hai, Jim Webb, I'm looking at you.)

[FMlex]

Not just a "no" but a "HELL NO!"

Leaving now

[iamnotafraid]

Why leave?

[louielouie2000]

^ Despite whatever they want to call it, the War In Iraq is still absolutely going on. Obama calling an official end to combat operations in Iraq in my opinion is just as meaningless of a political stunt as the whole "Mission Accomplished" speech Bush gave on the aircraft carrier 7 years ago. There are still many thousands of troops in Iraq, and despite what Obama is saying, I'm betting there still will be a troop presence come election time. Americans aren't stupid, they see what's really going on.

Also, I never said a Tea Partier would unseat Obama. A Tea Party candidate would probably lose by one of the biggest margins in history. What I'm saying is, the Tea Party is energizing the very battered right wing. Tea Partiers are simply those leading the battle cry, they won't be the actual soldiers. While most moderates simply laugh off the Tea Party, there's no denying the Tea Party has established doubt in even liberals in regards to Obama's ability to govern during this tough time.

I disagree about the election being about big government vs the economy. The nation's economy is probably in the worst shape it's been in since the 1930s. Unemployment is through the roof (especially chronic/extended unemployment... not to mention underemployment). For instance, I'm a college graduate who has several years experience working for the Federal Reserve until my department was closed a year ago. I haven't had a single call for an interview this past year, not one. I had to TURN DOWN interviews when I was job searching 4 years ago. On top of the job situation, the residential real estate market has collapsed, commercial is next. Americans are losing their jobs, their homes, their cars... people always look out for #1, especially in these times. They'll worry about tackling big government when things are merrier, right now they just want to put food on their tables.

[iamnotafraid]

Originally Posted by louielouie2000

What I'm saying is, the Tea Party is energizing the very battered right wing. Tea Partiers are simply those leading the battle cry, they won't be the actual soldiers. While most moderates simply laugh off the Tea Party, there's no denying the Tea Party has established doubt in even liberals in regards to Obama's ability to govern during this tough time.

And they vote.

[Nikolaj]

All very interesting comments. Thanks for making it better than Yes or No Louie, and to others here.

[bluefox4000]

I don't vote....Meaningless wasteful activity.

Mick