love the movies..
My should and will win picks - imho...
MOTION PICTURE:
Should and Will Win: Letters from Iwo Jima (Clint Eastwood, Steven Spielberg, Robert Lorenz)
Comment: If voters actually viewed all films then I have to believe that they will honor this excellent movie. By far the best of the nominees. I can’t see any of the other four movies being honored as best film of the year.
DIRECTING:
Will Win: The Departed (Martin Scorsese)
Should Win: Letters From Iwo Jima (Clint Eastwood)
Comment: I hate IOU Oscars, as it chips away the academy’s credibility in honoring the best for the year. You are in good company, Marty – Alfred Hitchcock and Robert Altman. I just viewed (via DVD) the Departed again. Good, but doesn’t even compare to Raging Bull and Goodfellas. I know he’s already won twice for Best Director, but Clint deserves it again for his war movie from the Japanese perspective. However, I will gladly applaud Scorcese's long overdue Oscar, as he is one of my favorite directors.
LEAD ACTOR:
Will Win: Peter O'Toole, Venus
Should Win: Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland
Comment: Whitaker by far gave the most interesting and compelling performance and I hope I am so wrong with this prediction. Peter O’Toole would be my 4th choice in this category but can the academy deny him for the 8th time straight? And all this talk about his career – well he did receive a “career” award two years ago. And speaking of career work, how about Forest Whitaker – talking about being snubbed over the years. O”Toole’s dirty old man in “Venus” doesn’t even come close to Whitaker’s sensational performance in “Last King of Scotland.” He played an aging actor – what a stretch. The only time I was a bit moved by O’Toole was the scene with him and his wife during dinner when he fell apart. His performance was at times overshadowed by the other performances in the movie, unlike Whitaker who was the center of attention when on screen. However, the academy is old and male and I really can’t see him losing again. I hope I am so wrong.
LEAD ACTRESS:
Should and Will Win: Dame Helen Mirren, The Queen
Comments: Standing ovation performance. The first box I checked on my Oscar pool ballot.
SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Should Win: Djimon Hounson, Blood Diamond
Will Win: Eddie Murphy, Dreamgirls
I loved Hounson’s performance in Blood Diamond and scratch my head when I read reviews that is was such a one note performance. I thought Mark Walhberg and Alan Arkin were more one noters – yelling and cursing and that’s about it. Hounson’s performance of passion and pain was the best thing about Blood Diamond. However, I think Eddie Murphy will win, and although I felt he gave a good performance, I don’t consider it Oscar worthy. He just did something different than his usual fare.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Should Win: Adriana Barraza, Babel
Will Win: Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls
After Hudson finished her showstopper “And I’m Telling You” I turned to my friend and said “she just won an Oscar.” I loved Jennifer Hudson's performance and it definitely is Oscar worthy. However, like so many years, more than one performance is deserving and if I was a voting member of the academy I would check Adriana Barraza’s box for best supporting actress. Her desperate performance stuck with me long after I left the theater – and since Babel was full of many emotional moments, that says a lot about the power of her performance. However, like the Queen, Jennifer Hudson will win and I will applaud her for being the highlight of Dreamgirls.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
Will Win: The Departed (William Monahan)
Should Win: Little Children (Todd Field, Tom Perrotta)
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
Should Win: Letters from Iwo Jima (Iris Yamashi!a, Paul Haggis)
Will Win: Little Miss Sunshine (Michael Arndt)
and last but not leave - Pulling big time for Melissa Ethridge to win best original song for "Inconvenient Truth."
Enjoy the show..
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