Quote:
Originally Posted by dontlookdown
That electoral map on election night will look nothing like that. There's not a single poll, primary election result, or exit poll that supports either of those scenarios. Another thing to keep in mind:
whatever voters are feeling today will be completely different in November.
Today's Gallup national tracking poll puts Obama at 50% and Clinton at 43%.
In a McCain vs. Obama general election, today Gallup has Obama at 47% and McCain at 43%
In a McCain vs. Clinton general election, today Gallup has Clinton at 49% and McCain at 44%
Today's polling also reveal this:
voters believe Obama has a 90% chance of becoming the nominee.
voters believe Clinton has a 8.5% chance of becoming the nominee.
In the general election they think McCain has a 37.1% chance of winning,
Clinton has a 6.5% chance of winning, and Obama has a 55.5% chance of winning.
Interesting but take it with a grain of salt.
Historically Gallup has often been Republican-leaning.
Another look at how Obama could change the electoral map in November:
http://progressillinois.com/2008/05/...a-over-the-top |
The gallup poll is flawed in the sense that it is polling purely popular vote, which, as you know, doesn't mean a hill of beans in November. It's the electoral college vote, especially in the swing states, that spells V-I-C-T-O-R-Y.
Also, consider what the Democratic primary map would look like if they adopted the winner-take-all rule like the GOP primary (and the electoral college). Clinton beats Obama handily!
And that progressillinois site is purely fiction. Their
projections are based purely upon wishing and speculation. But their baseline map, i.e., the one based on today's reality, is that Obama is currently losing to McCain by a landslide.